Tunisians voted on Sunday in a presidential election that is expected to give the president Qais Saeed A second term, during which his most prominent critics, including one of his rival candidates, are in prison.
More than 5,000 polling stations were closed at 6 p.m. local time in Tunisia after they had been open since 8 a.m., when 9.7 million voters were invited to cast their votes.
The turnout rate as of 1:00 p.m. local time was 14.16%, according to the Elections Authority, and the Authority’s official spokesman, Muhammad Al-Talili Al-Mansri, noted that the turnout rate was “actually higher” than it was in the second round of the legislative elections at the beginning of the year 2023 (about 12%). ).
66-year-old Saied faces few obstacles to winning re-election, after 5 years of accumulating reactions against him after winning his first term, and 3 years after parliament was suspended and the constitution was rewritten, giving the presidency more power.
This is the third election since the Arab Spring protests led to the ouster of the president Zine El Abidine Ben Ali In 2011, it also overthrew leaders in Egypt, Libya, and Yemen.
While international observers had previously praised the previous two presidential election rounds as meeting democratic standards, a series of arrests and actions taken by an electoral authority – appointed by Saied – raised questions about whether this year's race was free and fair, and opposition parties called for a boycott.
At stake
Not long ago, Tunisia was hailed as the only success story of the Arab Spring. With the region rocked by coups, counter-revolutions and civil wars, the North African country passed a new democratic constitution and saw pioneering civil society groups win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2015 for their mediation. To a political settlement.
In an atmosphere in which the Tunisian economy faltered and the country suffered from internal political conflicts and episodes of violence, Saied, who was 61 years old at the time and was outside the political scene, won his first term in 2019. He advanced to the runoff promising to introduce a “new Tunisia” and hand more power to the youth and local governments.
This year's elections will provide an opportunity to inform public opinion about the path that Tunisia's fading democracy has taken since Saied took office, and Saied's supporters appear to have remained loyal to him and his promise to transform Tunisia. But he is not affiliated with any political party, and it is unclear how deep his support is among Tunisians.
The presidential elections that took place today, Sunday, are the first since Saied upended politics in the country in July 2021, declared a state of emergency, dismissed his prime minister, suspended Parliament, and rewrote the Tunisian constitution to strengthen his power. These measures angered pro-democracy groups and leading opposition parties, which described them as a coup.
Despite the anger of politicians, voters approved Saied's new constitution the following year in a referendum that saw a modest turnout, which was followed by authorities carrying out campaigns of arrests of Saied's critics, including journalists, lawyers, politicians and civil society figures, accusing them of endangering state security and violating the controversial anti-fake news law. Controversy, which observers claim stifles dissent.
Fewer voters also participated in parliamentary and local elections in 2022 and 2023 amid economic problems and widespread political apathy.
Absence of competitors
Many wanted to challenge Saied in the current presidential elections, but few of them were able to do so, as 17 potential candidates submitted their papers to run, and the Tunisian Elections Authority approved only 3: Saied, Zuhair Al-Maghzawi, and Ayachi Zamel.
Al-Maghzawi is a veteran politician who campaigned against Saied’s economic program and the recent political arrests. However, he is hated by opposition parties for his support of Saied's constitution and previous moves to consolidate power, and has been sentenced to prison in 4 electoral fraud cases related to signatures his team collected to qualify for the ballot.
Others had hoped to run but were prevented, and last month the electoral authority rejected a court ruling ordering it to reappoint three additional competitors, and with many of them arrested, detained, or convicted on charges related to their political activities, Tunisia's most famous opposition figures are not participating either.
This includes the leader of the Ennahda party Rashid GhannouchiThe 83-year-old former speaker of the Tunisian Parliament, who rose to power after the Arab Spring, but has been imprisoned since last year after criticizing Saied.
The campaign also included Abeer Moussa, a parliamentarian known for her attacks on Islamists and for speaking nostalgically about Tunisia before the Arab Spring. The 49-year-old head of the Free Destourian Party was also imprisoned last year after criticizing Saied.
Other less well-known politicians who announced plans to run were jailed or sentenced on similar charges, opposition groups called for a boycott of the race, and the National Salvation Front, an alliance of secular and Islamist parties including Ennahda, denounced the process as a sham and questioned the legitimacy of the elections.
Economic distress
The country's economy still faces significant challenges, and despite Saied's promises to chart a new course for Tunisia, unemployment has steadily risen to one of the highest rates in the region at 16%, with young Tunisians particularly hard hit.
The growth rate has been slow since the “Covid-19” pandemic, and Tunisia has remained dependent on multiple lenders such as the World Bank and the European Union. Today, Tunisia owes them more than $9 billion. Aside from agricultural reform, Saied’s overall economic strategy is unclear.
Negotiations have long stalled on a $1.9 billion bailout package offered by the International Monetary Fund in 2022, and Saied has been unwilling to accept its terms, which include restructuring debt-laden state-owned enterprises and cutting public wages.
Some of the IMF's conditions – including lifting subsidies on electricity, flour and fuel – are likely to be unpopular among Tunisians who depend on their low costs. Economic analysts say that foreign and local investors are reluctant to invest in Tunisia due to the ongoing political risks and lack of reassurance.
The dire economic hardship has had a double impact on one of Tunisia's key political issues: immigration. From 2019 to 2023, an increasing number of Tunisians attempted to migrate to Europe without authorization.
At the same time, Saied's administration has taken a harsh approach against migrants from sub-Saharan Africa, many of whom have found themselves stranded in Tunisia while trying to reach Europe.
In early 2023, Saied enthused his supporters by accusing migrants of violence and crime and portraying them as part of a plot to change the country's demographics. Anti-immigrant rhetoric led to severe anti-immigrant violence and a crackdown by the authorities.
Last year, security forces targeted migrant communities from the coast to the capital with a series of arrests, deportations to the desert, and demolition of tent camps in Tunisia and coastal cities.
Bodies continue to wash up on the coast of Tunisia, where boats carrying Tunisians and migrants from sub-Saharan Africa managed to cover only a few nautical miles before sinking.
Relationship abroad
Tunisia maintained its ties with its traditional Western allies, but it also forged new partnerships under Saied's leadership. Like many populist leaders who have taken power around the world, Saied emphasizes sovereignty and the liberation of Tunisia from what he calls “foreign dictates,” and has insisted that Tunisia will not become a “border guard” for Europe, which has sought agreements with him to improve surveillance of the Mediterranean.
Tunisia and Iran lifted visa requirements and in May announced plans to boost trade ties, also accepting millions of dollars in loans as part of China's Belt and Road Initiative to build hospitals, stadiums and ports.
While election monitoring organizations were not granted permission to monitor the race, Russia sent observers. However, European countries remain Tunisia's largest trading partners and their leaders have maintained fruitful relations with Saied, praising the agreements to manage migration as a “model” for the region.
Saied has spoken strongly about his support for the Palestinians as war has ravaged the Middle East, and he also opposes moves taken to normalize diplomatic relations with Israel.