Ankara- In a remarkable statement during an interview with journalists on board his plane during his return from a visit to AlbaniaThe Turkish President expressed Recep Tayyip Erdogan He expressed his concerns about what he described as the danger of an Israeli move toward DamascusWhich opened the door to questions about the repercussions of this scenario on regional conditions.
Erdogan warned that any Israeli control over the Syrian capital could lead to major changes in the country's geopolitical map, noting that this matter would not be limited to Damascus, but might extend to northern Syria, which could constitute a direct threat to Turkish security on its southern borders.
He stressed the need to activate a tripartite cooperation mechanism between… Russia andSyria andIranHe pointed out the importance of taking “more decisive” steps in confronting what he described as “terrorist organizations” supported by USreferring to People's Protection Units The Kurdish forces, which represent the main force in the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).
transformation
These statements came after a previous speech by Erdogan in which he said, “The Israeli administration, which is moving under the illusion of a promised land, has placed Turkish lands among its plans after… Palestine andLebanonHe stressed that “the Israeli aggression does not stop at their borders, but rather includes… Türkiye Also, stressing that his country will confront “state terrorism by all available means, in defense of the homeland, the people, and sovereignty.”
Last week, the Turkish Parliament held a closed session, the contents of which would remain secret for 10 years, in which the two foreign ministers presented Hakan FidanDefense Yaşar Guler, developments in the Israeli aggression and the expansion of attacks from Gaza To other regions, and potential risks to Türkiye.
Political analyst Baqi Lalioglu believes that Erdogan's statements about Israeli threats to Syria reflect a shift in Turkish policy, as it no longer focuses only on regional and humanitarian issues, but rather sees that “Israel's aggressive policies” directly affect Turkey.
Speaking to Al Jazeera Net, Lalioglu explained that Israeli movements in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria and Iran caused regional instability, which negatively affected Turkey.
He added that the possible ground attack on Syria may lead to a new wave of displacement towards northern Syria, which may force… Ankara To expand its safe zones there.
He pointed out that Israel's complete occupation of Syria is currently unlikely, but partial occupation of its south is possible. He also warned that it might seek to target some Turkish lands within the so-called “Promised Land,” especially with support Mossad toKurdistan Workers' Partywhich enhances the future threat to Turkey.
A source of concern
For his part, the writer and researcher specializing in Turkish affairs, Mahmoud Alloush, explained that what Turkey warned about over the past year has become a tangible reality today, as Israel expands the circle of escalation in the Middle East without deterrence, which clearly demonstrates its goals, especially what the Israeli Prime Minister promised. Benjamin Netanyahu A radical change in the region.
Alloush indicated – in a statement to Al Jazeera Net – that Israeli movements are no longer restricted by clear borders, which raises the level of risks for all countries in the region, including Syria and…Iraq andYemen And Iran, explaining that the situation may worsen if Israel finds that the cost of its expansion is low.
In his opinion, this situation constitutes a source of special concern for Turkey, as further regional unrest will have direct security, economic and political repercussions on Ankara.
Alloush explained that Israel's success in achieving its goals will establish a new reality in the Middle East in which it will be the dominant power, which will cause great geopolitical damage to other regional powers, including Turkey.
According to him, the Kurdish separatist project in northern Syria is one of the biggest beneficiaries of any major shifts in the conflict, which raises concerns for Ankara, as Erdogan believes that the escalation of threats in Syria should be a strong motivation for Damascus and its Russian and Iranian allies to enhance the normalization process with Türkiye.
In a surprising move, the leader of the Nationalist Movement Behteshli governmentwho has long opposed dialogue with the Kurds, shook hands with members of the Democratic and Equality Party, which is accused of having ties to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, which raised much speculation about the possibility of changing the ruling coalition’s position towards the Kurds.
Commenting on the incident, Erdogan said, “We see that Mr. Bahceli's handshake with the leaders of the Popular Democracy and Equality Party, and his statements that he made yesterday, are very valuable steps. We see the need for the parties that claim to belong to Turkey to hold themselves accountable for what they did in the past.”
Al-Monitor reported that exploratory talks are currently underway between the Turkish government and…Abdullah Ocalanthe imprisoned Kurdistan leader, with the aim of resuming negotiations for a new peace process between the government and the Kurds.
According to the website, Ocalan was recently able to communicate directly with the leadership of his party based in Qandil Mountains In northern Iraq. According to one source, Ocalan told the Kurdish leadership, “It is time to discuss laying down arms.”
Softening efforts
In the opinion of political analyst Mahmoud Alloush, this shift reflects part of the softening efforts that the Turkish president began with the opposition following the local elections. It is believed that calming internal polarization has become an urgent necessity to help Türkiye limit the repercussions of the regional war and its effects on the country.
He adds that the ruling coalition's openness to the Kurdish party is mainly driven by internal political goals, most notably Erdogan's desire to amend the constitution, especially after his bets on normalization with the Kurdish party declined. Republican peopleIt also carries another dimension, which is the quest to find a future horizon to address the ongoing conflict between the state and the Kurdish political situation.
However, academic researcher Cenk Sirajoglu believes that these shifts in the policy of the ruling People's Alliance, despite their internal gains such as accelerating the process of redrafting the constitution and ensuring President Erdogan's candidacy for a new term, also carry strategic benefits at the external level. One of them – in his opinion – may be to facilitate the Turkish expansion in northern Syria through an understanding with the Kurds in exchange for concessions made by the government.
Speaking to Al Jazeera Net, the academic researcher pointed out that the Israeli move in Syria under the pretext of confronting Iranian influence does not clearly guarantee Tel Aviv’s true intentions.
He stated that the Israeli operations in Syria, if they occur, will open the way for a greater American role in the region, which may contribute to strengthening the separatist projects supported by the Syrian Democratic Forces and the Syrian Democratic Council (SDC).
Sirajoglu also does not rule out the possibility of Ankara launching a military operation in the regions east of the Euphrates, stressing that its main goal will be to protect Turkey’s interests and prevent the establishment of a separatist entity in Syria that represents a threat to its national security.
He explained that the recent Turkish military movements, including the large reinforcements that pushed them to their positions in northwestern Syria, especially in Idlibindicates that Ankara is ready to confront any field developments that may be imposed by the situation on the ground. He said that the talks between the Turkish government and Abdullah Ocalan, if valid, would open the door to a new chapter in relations between the two parties.