The Turkish magazine “Fektoru” published a long article about the geopolitical conflict in Africa The impact of major powers such as China, the United States, Russia, and some European Union countries, and middle powers such as Türkiye, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and India, on development and security in African countries.
The author of the article, Nebahat Tenriverdi, highlighted the growing importance of Africa in the foreign policies of major and middle powers, which she said seek to enhance their influence through military and economic investments, leading to intense competition for resources.
The author explained that there is a race to strengthen economic, diplomatic and military relations with the African continent, reflected in the increasing interest shown by major countries towards this continent and the increase in diplomatic summits held with their countries.
A role that cannot be ignored
The author believes that Africa's role in shaping current events cannot be ignored, despite doubts about history being tragically repeated on the continent. The tragic history affects the foreign policies of African countries in two main ways. First, African countries' sensitivity to the principles of sovereignty and non-interference remains profound due to the effects of colonialism and occupation. Secondly, African countries are exploiting this multipolar moment to break the relationships of dependence left over from the colonial period, and to achieve their goals of economic development.
The author stresses the importance of taking into account the great diversity within the African continent, as it contains multiple countries that differ in their interests and capabilities.
Discussions about multipolarity revolve around ending unilateral hegemony and the emergence of multiple powers with different interests and influences. These changes help African countries pursue selective alliance policies that meet their interests in development and security.
According to the writer; With the availability of alternatives in multiple fields, African countries have been able to use the competition of global powers to achieve better terms in trade and investment. For example; Countries such as Nigeria, Kenya, and South Africa maintain strong relations with the United States and the European Union, while strengthening economic and security ties with China, Russia, Turkey, and the Gulf states. Therefore, diplomatic behavior on the continent has become dependent on multilateral balance and complex strategies.
China
The author discusses the close relationship between Africa's transformation and China's increasing economic and geostrategic influence, through initiatives such as “Belt and RoadAnd the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation. China has become Africa's largest trading partner and a major investor in infrastructure projects, financing and building many large projects across the continent.
China's successes are due to the rapid, state-funded nature of its investments, as well as its non-interference in the internal affairs of African countries and not linking its investments to political conditions, which makes it an attractive partner.
Chinese investments contribute to transforming countries' economies and enhancing continental interconnectedness, which accelerates the integration of African countries into the global economy. For example, China has contributed to the transformation of the Ethiopian economy through investments in industrial parks and railways, facilitating access to global markets. Chinese investments in Angola have also helped enhance its production capacity and make it one of the largest oil producers in Africa.
Russia
The author emphasized Russia's presence and influence in Africa, which focuses more on military cooperation, arms sales, and political support, as Russia is considered a balancing element against Western influence.
In recent years, Moscow has significantly expanded its military presence on the continent, and has signed more than 20 military cooperation agreements with African countries since 2015. Russia is also considered a major supplier of weapons to many African countries, with Algeria and Egypt being at the forefront of the largest buyers of Russian weapons. As a result of increased security commitments, Russia has overtaken China as the most important arms seller in the Sahara region.
Moscow is taking advantage of its security commitment to expand its influence in countries such as the Central African Republic, Mali, and Libya. After the military coups in the Sahel countries, it was dissolved Russian Wagner Group The location of the European Union's military presence. Now, Wagner has transformed into what is known as the “Africa Corps” and Libya has become the center of its regional logistics operations.
Limited economic ties
The writer reported that when comparing Russia's military commitment, its economic ties show a limited picture. However, this should not be understood as weakness, as Moscow focuses its investments in strategic areas such as energy and mining. The Dabaa Nuclear Power Plant project in Egypt is considered one of Rosatom's flagship projects in Africa, while Russian energy, mining and nuclear companies play crucial roles in Russia's strategy on the continent.
In addition, the relations that Russia is developing with African countries are considered of strategic importance to confront the isolation and sanctions imposed by Western countries as a result of their invasion of Ukraine. Moscow seeks to strengthen its relations with the countries of the Global South under the slogan “A multipolar global systemThis policy has achieved relative success in Africa.
The author indicated that Russia is focusing, through this step, on achieving three important strategic goals in the Mediterranean region and Africa: increasing its regional influence, achieving balance with NATO (NATO), and enhancing its geo-economic role at the global level.
Medium powers
The author points out the increasing interaction of middle powers such as Turkey, India, the Gulf states (especially the UAE and Saudi Arabia), Japan, and Brazil with the African continent through economic investments, diplomatic initiatives, and strategic partnerships.
The author believes that multipolarity on the continent allows these middle powers a wide scope for action. African countries see these powers as a safer alternative compared to the major powers. This is evident by the fact that these middle powers do not possess the military, economic, and political capabilities necessary to establish hegemony similar to that possessed by the United States or China, which contributes to the balance of competition between the major powers on the continent.
The middle powers are experiencing challenges and experiences similar to those faced by African countries, starting from development and security, to state building and geopolitical concerns. In addition, most of these countries share a common geopolitical interest with African countries in reshaping international institutions to better reflect the voices of the Global South.
The author stresses that Africa should not be considered a platform of solidarity for countries from the Third World, as these middle powers do not work together in a consistent manner, but rather often compete with each other and with other countries.
Competitive relationships
The companies affiliated with these mid-sized countries in the field of aviation, for example, are witnessing fierce competition to become the preferred brand for transporting passengers between the continent, Asia and beyond. While India and Brazil prefer to establish deeper diplomatic ties through existing international institutions such as the United Nations or… African UnionOthers tend to take bilateral paths through agreements with specific African partners.
The UAE's direct investments focus mainly on copper-rich Zambia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. On the other hand, Saudi Arabia announced plans to ensure access to minerals from countries such as Namibia, Guinea and the Democratic Republic of the Congo to support its ambitious goal of producing 500,000 electric cars annually by 2030.
Türkiye's investments in the mining sector are also expanding, especially in gold and chromium, through Turkish companies operating in Sudan and Ghana. India's mining investments focus primarily on coal, iron ore and diamonds, with an emphasis on securing raw materials for the industrial sector from Zambia, South Africa and Mozambique.
The UAE has become, after China, the European Union and the United States, the fourth largest investor in Africa over the past decade in the logistics and infrastructure sector, as UAE government companies manage ports in Africa as part of its strategy to be a central link between Asia, Africa and Europe. On the other hand, Saudi Arabia is investing in other infrastructure projects, such as the Lamu Port in Kenya and the Mombasa-Nairobi road.
As for Turkish companies, they are very active in building airports, roads, bridges and residential complexes across Africa. Turkish companies are known for their ability to deliver projects quickly and efficiently, which has helped them win some projects from Chinese companies, such as in Ethiopia and Rwanda. In addition, Turkish companies manage some airports and ports on the continent.
Post-oil economy
The writer went on to point out that in terms of energy, the UAE and Saudi Arabia are preparing for a post-oil economy, as they direct their policies towards leading innovation in the field of sustainable energy at the regional level. Thanks to the initiatives they launched in recent years, these two countries have become among the most prominent investors in renewable energy projects in Morocco, Egypt, and South Africa.
While India is particularly prominent in the gas sector in Mozambique and renewable energy projects in Kenya.
In contrast, Türkiye's investments in the energy sector are limited to exploration activities, especially in Libya and Somalia, where it has a strong influence.
Transformations require new strategies
The author believes that these transformations require the United States and the European Union to develop new strategies to confront the increasing pressures from China and Russia on the African continent.
The need to counter the influence of China and Russia is one of the most important drivers of US policy in Africa today. After the election of US President Joe Biden, the United States tried to deliver a message about “the global conflict between democracies and regimes.”
During the Democracy Summit that it organized, the results were not as expected. Even the Russian invasion of Ukraine did not bring about a “historic shift” in the positions of African countries, as happened in the rest of the Global South. High-level visits by American officials such as Kamala Harris also failed. And Anthony Blinken in persuading African leaders to condemn Russia at the United Nations and support Ukraine.
The author pointed out that US policy in Africa is characterized by a structure that is overly focused on security, as Washington has adopted a military approach to secure its interests on the continent since the establishment of the US Military Command in Africa (AFRICOM) in 2007.
France and the European Union
In addition, the military operations carried out by France and the European Union to combat “terrorism” in West Africa resulted in strengthening the positions of the United States in the region, but they also contributed to increasing feelings of hostility against the West. French and American military forces were present in the Sahel region before a series of coups, which led to the withdrawal of these forces from the region.
This sudden military loss came as a major shock to EU member states, as they had extensive military commitments under the Common Security and Defense Policy.
With 18 missions in Africa between 2003 and 2015, recent developments seem to indicate the end of a strategic era for the European Union on the continent, especially with the suspension of missions in Mali and the Central African Republic due to the activities of the Wagner Group. The military mission in Niger also ended after the new military government asked European and American forces to leave the country.
In conclusion, the author reiterates the increasing competition between global powers, which will affect how African countries direct their relations with major and middle powers. This will provide greater opportunities for middle powers such as Türkiye, India, the Gulf states (especially the UAE and Saudi Arabia), Japan and Brazil to strengthen their relations with African countries.
As global demand for minerals such as cobalt and lithium increases, the strategic importance of African countries will increase. If these countries can strategically evaluate this competition and negotiate better investment terms, it will enable them to achieve results consistent with local development goals.