Russia’s military and economic expansion in the Arctic is a “grave concern” for NATO, according to Iceland’s Foreign Minister, Þorgerður Katrín Gunnarsdóttir. She stated that Moscow’s activities in the strategically critical region extend far beyond defensive measures.
For years, Moscow has systematically reopened Soviet-era military bases and constructed new installations across its vast Arctic territory. Significant investment has been directed toward its Northern Fleet, based in the Murmansk region near NATO members Finland and Norway. While the war in Ukraine has strained Russia’s land forces, its formidable Arctic capabilities, including a fleet of nuclear-armed submarines, remain largely untouched.
The Arctic is warming faster than any other region on Earth, opening new shipping lanes and access to previously unreachable natural resources. This rapid transformation is escalating the area’s strategic importance. Gunnarsdóttir noted that this creates a “more dynamic and contested” operational environment for both NATO and Russia.
Geopolitical tensions have also fractured regional diplomacy. The Arctic Council, a forum designed for cooperation on issues like climate change among all eight Arctic states, suspended political collaboration with Russia following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Officials acknowledge that the council is not operating normally, which has severely impacted the flow of scientific data and hampered research at a critical time. “We need data from the whole region,” said Ambassador Kenneth Høegh, chair of the Senior Arctic Officials, highlighting the interconnectedness of the Arctic ecosystem.
Moscow’s focus is driven by significant economic interests. Analysts assert that Russia views the Arctic as essential to its future, containing vast reserves of natural gas, oil, and valuable fisheries. A key element of its strategy is the development of the Northern Sea Route, a shipping lane along its coastline that shortens transit times between Asia and Europe. As climate change makes this route more accessible, Moscow aims to control and monetize its use.
Adding another layer of complexity is China’s growing presence. Beijing, which has declared itself a “near Arctic” state, has deepened its strategic partnership with Moscow. The U.S. has observed growing cooperation, with China funding Russian energy projects and participating in joint military exercises near Alaska. “China’s growing interest in the Arctic…is a cause for concern and underscores the need for vigilance and unity among NATO allies,” Gunnarsdóttir warned.
In response, NATO has been enhancing its Arctic presence, particularly its anti-submarine warfare capabilities. However, allies face the challenge of Russia’s extensive experience and superior icebreaker fleet, which provide an operational advantage in the harsh environment. Iceland is actively promoting closer cooperation among the seven Arctic allies within NATO, especially concerning strategic chokepoints like the Greenland-Iceland-U.K. (GIUK) gap.
“The Arctic is not a remote or isolated region,” Gunnarsdóttir concluded. “It is a central arena in global security.”
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