Long Range Forecast: Mel Gibson Returns to the Director’s Chair with Lionsgate Thriller FLIGHT RISK

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Long Range Forecast — January 24, 2025

Flight Risk | Lionsgate

Domestic Opening Weekend Range: $6M – $10M

Mel Gibson returns to the big screen—albeit behind the camera—in the action thriller Flight Risk, starring Mark Wahlberg as a pilot transporting an Air Marshal (Michelle Dockery) and a fugitive (Topher Grace) preparing to testify in a high-profile criminal case. Originally scheduled for release in October of last year, the film’s new late January slot could give it the breathing room required to attract a theatrical audience. This is Gibson’s first film as a director since 2016’s Hacksaw Ridge ($15.1M domestic opening, $67.2M domestic total), also released by Lionsgate. Solid word-of-mouth and awards season momentum helped that film secure largely modest holds that kept it in theaters from November to early March.

Flight Risk has a clear runway to make an impact over its first couple of weekends. By the time it opens, fellow action thriller Den of Thieves: Pantera (also from Lionsgate) will have been out for two weeks. After Flight Risk, there’s not another action-oriented movie hitting theaters in wide release until the Valentine’s Day debut of Captain America: Brave New World. January has proven a familiar release window for star-driven thrillers, ranging from the highs of Amazon MGM’s The Beekeeper (1/12/24, $16.5M domestic opening, $66.2M domestic total) or Lionsgate’s Den of Thieves (1/19/18, $15.2M domestic opening, $44.9M domestic total) and The Commuter (1/12/18, $13.7M domestic opening, $36.3M domestic total) to lesser-earning efforts like Open Road Films’ The Marksman (1/15/21, $3.1M domestic total, $15.5M domestic total) or Aviron Pictures’ Serenity (1/25/19, $4.4M domestic opening, $8.5M domestic total). For Flight Risk, our forecasting panel predicts a domestic performance somewhere in the middle of those extremes, putting it more in line with Screen Gems’ release Proud Mary (1/12/18, $9.9 domestic opening, $20.8M domestic total), though marketing—and the presence of Gibson in the director’s chair—could push earnings further north of $20M.

Tracking Updates [as of January 3]