We wrap up the first round of the Australian Open on Day 3, with 20 men’s matches on the schedule. As always, our writers here at LastWordOnTennis share their thoughts on every single match with you. We split the 20 matches between five articles, with the other four featuring Gael Monfils vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, Taylor Fritz vs Jenson Brooksby, Daniil Medvedev vs Kasidit Samrej, and Andrey Rublev vs Joao Fonseca. Predicting these matches are Damian Kust, Shane Black, and Andreas Pelekis. Who do you think will advance?
Australian Open Day 3 Men’s Predictions
Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Learner Tien
Damian:
Ugo Carabelli is another player you want to draw at a hard-court Slam, but he’s a little better on this surface than, let’s say, Coria. His chance of success here will depend on getting Tien into a dogfight where serves don’t matter and you’re just playing every rally over ten shots. If he can do that, he might prevail in way over three hours. But the American’s the favorite.
Prediction: Tien in 4
Shane:
19-year-old American Learner Tien breezed through qualies and is knocking on the door of the top 100. His consistency off the ground is hard to find from a teenager. Ugo Carabelli has had little tour-level success on hard courts. I’ll take the young American.
Prediction: Tien in 4
Andreas:
Tien is another great young player to watch in 2025, and this should be a good opportunity for the American to win his first-ever Grand Slam match. Carabelli thrives on clay courts, and has never won a tour-level match on hard courts. Tien is still new to best-of-five matches, and he’ll have to hold up physically.
Prediction: Tien in 3
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Tomas Martin Etcheverry vs Flavio Cobolli
Damian:
Cobolli retired in Auckland last week and with his physicality under a question mark, this gets more tricky as that’s Etcheverry’s main asset. Otherwise they’re pretty evenly-matched on hard courts. But with the Argentinian you just know that he’s never going away and will keep up the intensity even if it goes beyond four hours.
Prediction: Etcheverry in 5
Shane:
Etcheverry has established himself as a legitimate threat on the ATP Tour and reached the third round of both hard-court majors last season. Cobolli broke out with a terrific first season on tour in 2024 and has the talent to be a force going forward. This should be a fun one. I’ll take the Argentine big-hitting on these fast courts.
Prediction: Etcheverry in 5
Andreas:
Etcheverry hasn’t looked too convincing during his United Cup and Auckland matches. Although Cobolli stunned Ugo Humbert at the United Cup, he then had to retire mid-match in Auckland with physical discomfort. This match should come down to fitness and endurance, and the edge has to go to Etcheverry because of the Italian’s injury concerns.
Prediction: Etcheverry in 4
Botic van de Zandschulp vs Alex de Minaur
Damian:
The Australian Open was the only Slam de Minaur didn’t make a quarterfinal at last year, but he’s got a great chance now. He usually plays well on home soil and the early draw looks pretty nice. Van de Zandschulp’s relatively dangerous, but it seems like the Australian is at that caliber right now where you need a bit more to beat him.
Prediction: De Minaur in 4
Shane:
De Minaur will have massive fan support in this match, but the Dutchman is no easy out. Van de Zandschulp is coming off a down season but will look to turn that around early in 2025. However, de Minaur, as a top-eight seed in his home Slam, will not bow out easily.
Prediction: De Minaur in 3
Andreas:
Don’t rule out van de Zandschulp, who came into a US Open match against Carlos Alcaraz and spoiled Alcaraz’s crowd advantage with a shocking upset. De Minaur will have to control his nerves and play consistent tennis in front of his home crowd. The Aussie will reach the second round, but Van de Zandschulp should be able to snatch a set.
Prediction: De Minaur in 4
Andrey Rublev vs Joao Fonseca
Damian:
This is the match of the round and maybe even the tournament. In the best-of-three format, I’d be tempted to call this a 50/50 right now. Even at this stage of Fonseca’s career, only real advantage Rublev has over him is the physical intensity that the Brazilian might not be ready for in best-of-five play. But let’s ride the hype, why not.
Prediction: Fonseca in 5
Shane:
What a tough opening-round match for the No. 9 seed, squaring off against 18-year-old phenom Joao Fonseca. Dating back to the Next Gen Finals, Fonseca has won 13 consecutive matches, including three straight-set victories in Australian Open qualifying. This match will feature explosive hitting off both wings. If Rublev is able to keep his cool, his Slam experience should pay off.
Prediction: Rublev in 4
Andreas:
All eyes were on Fonseca to see where the 18-year-old qualifier would land in the main draw. Ultimately, this match is probably the best matchup of the first round. Rublev is 0-1 during the 2025 season, reaching three Australian Open quarterfinals throughout his career. Meanwhile, Fonseca will make his main draw debut at a Grand Slam here and hasn’t lost a set during his eight 2025 victories.
Expect huge forehands in this match, with mentality being the deciding factor. Fonseca is playing with tons of confidence; he’ll have nothing to lose as the underdog, and he will clinch a statement victory.
Prediction: Fonseca in 5
Main Photo Credit: Mike Frey-USA TODAY Sports