There’s already a flurry of diplomatic wrangling, backchannel talks, and public posturing ongoing between Washington, Moscow, and Kyiv, to figure out how to halt the nearly three-year-old all-out Russian war on Ukraine.
Now add this to the mix: U.S. President Donald Trump wants to condition future U.S. aid to Ukraine on getting more access to the country’s valuable “rare earth” minerals — minerals that are in increasing demand for batteries, computers, smart phones, and electric cars, not to mention weaponry.
“We’re looking to do a deal with Ukraine where they’re going to secure what we’re giving them with their rare earth and other things,” he told reporters on February 3.
“I want to have security of rare earth. We’re putting in hundreds of billions of dollars. They have great rare earth. And I want security of the rare earth, and they’re willing to do it,” he said.
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There was no immediate reaction from Ukrainian officials to the proposal, which is likely yet another gambit in the negotiations between Washington and Kyiv.
So What Is A Rare Earth Mineral Anyway?
Rare earths are a class of about 17 minerals — for example, yttrium, cerium, lanthanum — that are found in trace amounts throughout the Earth’s surface. They’re in increasing demand because of their use in high-tech products. The ongoing race to make batteries smaller and lighter, and more powerful and longer-lasting, involves the use of rare earth minerals. Defense industries also need the minerals for weaponry and related technology.
Other rare earth minerals are used as chemical catalysts, in magnets, in computer drives, or in generators.
The biggest hurdle for rare earth extraction is that you have to dig up a lot of soil to get an adequate amount of the minerals because they’re in such trace amounts. And then you have to separate them out and refine them, before you can employ them in technology or machinery.
Ukraine has substantial amounts of rare earth minerals, according to the Ukrainian Geological Survey.
It also has less-rare, more abundant minerals that are also coveted for use in technology and cutting-edge industries: lithium, for example, which is used widely in batteries of all sorts, and titanium, which is used in airplane manufacturing. Some estimates say the country’s lithium deposits could be valued at billions of dollars.
Trump may also have been referring to these minerals; he did not make that clear.
For the record, Ukraine also has far greater deposits of other, more common mineral resources — coal, iron ore, oil and gas – which provide major revenues for the country, and also major investment opportunities.
Many of those resources are located in parts of Ukraine that are occupied by Russian forces — and may ultimately end up under total Russian control.
So Why Does Trump Want Them?
The race to locate, secure, develop, and monetize rare earth minerals has been accelerating for years now. Estimates of the minerals in North America stand at about 3.6 million tons in United States and more than 14 million in Canada, according to the U.S. Geological Survey, and the United States is the second largest producer in the world after China. Australia, and Burma are other major producers.
But in 2023, China, which produces about 60 percent of all rare earths in the world, and processes nearly 90 percent, rattled global markets when it announced a ban on rare earth extraction and production.
That set off alarm bells in the West, where lawmakers and policymakers worried that Western technology would be crippled by a lack of supply of rare earth minerals.
China further jolted the discussion on February 3 — the same day Trump spoke to reporters — when it slapped tariffs on a range of U.S. goods in retaliation for tariffs announced over the weekend by Trump.
Beijing also imposed export controls on tungsten, tellurium, ruthenium, and molybdenum: critical minerals that are important in high-tech manufacturing but are not categorized as rare earths.
Can Trump Really Condition Aid To Ukraine On Access To Rare Earths?
Probably.
Ukraine is heavily dependent on the United States for the weaponry and equipment that has kept Kyiv in the fight against the Russian invasion. As of September, Congress had appropriated $174.2 billion for Ukraine-related purposes, with the majority of that going to Defense Department and defense-related accounts, according to the Congressional Research Service.
Trump, who has made ending the Ukraine conflict a top priority, and his advisers have signaled that part of the negotiations will include enticements and pressure to get Kyiv and Moscow to the negotiating table. Conditioning future U.S. aid on Ukrainian concessions is key to that; convincing Kyiv to give U.S. investors more access to rare earths and critical minerals could be a big part of the calculus.
Without U.S. weaponry, Ukraine’s military would buckle amid the grinding onslaughts from the bigger and better-equipped Russian troops. How long before its defenses would collapse outright is unclear.
It’s not the first time that Trump conditioned U.S. weaponry on concessions from Ukraine, specifically President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. During his first presidency, Trump was impeached by the Democrat-controlled House of Representatives after a phone call with Zelenskyy. In the call, Trump appeared to say he would unfreeze U.S. aid if Zelenskyy reopened an investigation into a Ukrainian energy company whose board included the son of Joe Biden, at the time a former vice president.
Lawyers argued that a U.S. president has no legal right to withhold funding that has been appropriated by Congress.
Trump, who denied any wrongdoing, and described the conversation as a “perfect phone call,” was acquitted by the Republican-controlled Senate.
This time around, Republicans control both chambers of Congress so it’s unlikely there will be strong congressional pushback on conditioning U.S. aid. Moreover, Trump and his advisers have embraced a more muscular approach to White House decision-making, arguing that Congress has less involvement in executive branch decisions.
What Does The Kremlin Think About All This?
Russia also has substantial rare earth and critical mineral reserves, though its production capacity lags substantially behind China and other countries.
Broadly speaking, anything that complicates life for Ukraine is seen as a good thing for Moscow, which knows that U.S. weaponry has kept Kyiv in the fight.
Russia, which has the upper hand on the battlefield, is doing its own positioning ahead of potential peace negotiations. That includes flattery from President Vladimir Putin.
One of the Trump White House bargaining chips has also been the threat to flood Ukraine with even more U.S. weaponry – which would be bad for Russian troops, and the Kremlin.
Asked by reporters about Trump’s rare earth comments, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said it appeared that the White House was looking to make Ukraine pay for aid from Washington.
“This is clearly an offer to Ukraine to buy U.S. assistance,” he said.
