Though one of South America’s smallest nations, Guyana’s elections on Monday carry significant implications for global oil markets, regional stability, and the strategic interests of the United States and China.
Guyana is on the cusp of an oil boom, with production growth expected to be the highest in the world through 2035. A Global Energy Monitor report projects that by then, the country could produce two million barrels daily—an amount equal to the combined 2022 output of Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, Trinidad and Tobago, and Venezuela. This rapid emergence as an energy powerhouse is set against the backdrop of a looming military threat from neighboring Venezuela, which claims sovereignty over Guyana’s oil-rich Essequibo region.
On Monday, Guyanese voters will elect a new president, parliament, and regional councils. Incumbent President Irfaan Ali of the People’s Progressive Party/Civic is seeking another term. His main challengers are Aubrey Norton, a veteran parliamentarian leading the opposition People’s National Congress Reform party, and Azurddin Mohamed of the new We Invest in the Nation (WIN) party. In 2024, the US Treasury Department sanctioned Mohamed, alleging he exploited the nation’s gold sector for personal gain.
The country’s economic fortunes shifted dramatically in 2015 after US oil giant ExxonMobil discovered reserves of nearly 11 billion barrels offshore. The subsequent oil production, which began in 2019, has fueled staggering economic growth. According to the World Bank, Guyana’s GDP grew by 63.3% in 2022 and 33.8% in 2023. This year, the economy expanded by 43.6%, marking its fifth consecutive year of double-digit growth, driven entirely by the energy sector. Currently producing about 650,000 barrels daily, Guyana has been highlighted by the IMF for having the world’s highest GDP growth rate from 2022 to 2024.
Analysts stress that the election’s outcome will be critical for the nation’s future. “Guyana’s current growth rate is truly impressive,” Ryan Berg, director of the Americas Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), told CNN. He noted the country must “manage its new wealth” to ensure inclusive and stable growth.
Imdat Oner, a political analyst at Florida International University, added that a stable election could set a regional precedent. “If the next government manages this boom with transparency and stronger institutions, it could be an example for the entire region,” Oner said. “That’s why these elections are important.”
This growth has attracted global attention, particularly as sanctions constrain other major producers like Russia and Iran. However, Benjamin Gedan, director of the Latin America Program at the Wilson Center, warns that the last election cycle led to a prolonged political crisis. He fears that renewed social tensions, potentially along ethnic lines, could disrupt development and leave the country “more vulnerable to potential interference” from Venezuela.
The election is unfolding amid heightened tensions over the Essequibo, a vast territory rich in oil, gold, and other natural resources that constitutes about two-thirds of Guyana. The dispute dates back to an 1899 arbitral award that granted the area to what was then British Guiana. Venezuela has never accepted the ruling, and its claims have intensified in recent years. In 2024, Venezuela’s National Assembly passed a law to create a new Venezuelan state in the disputed territory. While the case is before the International Court of Justice (ICJ), Caracas has stated it does not recognize the court’s jurisdiction and will not abide by its ruling. The Guyanese government has described Venezuela’s actions as an “existential threat.”
Lacking the military resources to defend itself, Guyana has strengthened its ties with the United States. Joint military exercises have been conducted, and a British warship recently visited the region in a show of support. “The United States needs a strong partner in Guyana for many reasons, both economic and in terms of security,” said Berg of CSIS. A solid alliance, he added, “could guarantee that the status quo prevails.”
This geopolitical maneuvering has also placed Guyana at the center of the rivalry between the US and China. While American firms like ExxonMobil lead the country’s oil production, Chinese companies have secured major infrastructure contracts, including the construction of the new Demerara River bridge in the capital, Georgetown.
Gedan noted that President Ali appears to have a “clear preference for the United States,” but Guyana remains receptive to Chinese investment. Analysts believe the nation will continue a pragmatic approach, aligning with both superpowers depending on the project.
For the next government, the challenge will be to balance these powerful external forces while managing internal development and fending off a direct threat to its sovereignty. “The challenge for Guyana will be in maintaining the balance,” said Oner. “Time will tell” if it can successfully leverage its new geopolitical importance for lasting prosperity.
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