A rift is emerging within NATO over how to respond to Russian military aircraft violating allied airspace. A faction including the United States, Poland, and the Baltic nations is advocating for a more forceful response to future incursions, while other members, notably Germany, are urging restraint to avoid escalation.
The division crystallized during an emergency meeting of the North Atlantic Council on Tuesday, called by Estonia after three Russian fighter jets breached its airspace for 12 minutes last week.
According to two NATO officials familiar with the discussions, representatives from Poland and Estonia pushed for a joint statement explicitly warning that any further violations by manned Russian aircraft would be met with force. However, Germany and several southern European countries successfully argued to remove this language, deeming it too provocative.
The final statement, endorsed by all 32 members, reflected this compromise: “NATO and Allies will employ, in accordance with international law, all necessary military and non-military tools to defend ourselves and deter all threats from all directions. We will continue to respond in the manner, timing, and domain of our choosing.”
The debate highlights escalating tensions fueled by a recent surge in Russian military activities near NATO borders. In the last two weeks alone, up to 21 Russian drones entered Poland, a Russian attack drone flew into Romania, and a Russian military aircraft flew low over a German Navy frigate in the Baltic Sea. Norway also announced that Russia had violated its airspace three times this year.
Some of these incidents may not have been intentional. NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe, General Alexus Grynkewich, suggested the Estonian incursion was likely accidental due to Russian pilots’ inexperience. Officials are also examining whether Ukrainian electronic jamming may have diverted Russian drones into Poland.
However, for many of NATO’s eastern members, the distinction is irrelevant. They argue that Moscow must face consequences for its increasingly dangerous behavior. “If another missile or aircraft enters our space without permission—deliberately or ‘by mistake’—and gets shot down… please don’t come here to whine about it,” Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski warned at the United Nations. “You have been warned.”
Echoing this sentiment, Czech President Petr Pavel stated, “We must respond appropriately, including possibly shooting down Russian aircraft… If we don’t stick together, sooner or later it will happen to us too.” U.S. President Donald Trump also remarked on Tuesday that he believes NATO should shoot down Russian planes violating its airspace.
Conversely, other leaders urged caution. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius acknowledged Russia is “testing borders… with increasing frequency and intensity” but warned against falling into an “escalation trap.” He added, “Prudence is not cowardice, but rather responsibility.” Similarly, Finnish President Alexander Stubb advised allies “not to overreact but be firm enough, because the only thing Russia understands is power.”
General Grynkewich elaborated on the strategic complexities, noting that shooting down an unmanned drone is an “easier decision” than engaging a manned fighter jet, which carries “a higher risk of escalation.” He acknowledged the different expectations within the alliance, explaining that some nations want a “very broad application” of NATO assets to engage threats, while “other nations make different judgments.”
“It’s not the same in every nation,” Grynkewich said, “but we work very closely with them to make sure that we limit the number of restrictions as much as possible, because that gives us the most tactical flexibility.”
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