Russian intrusions into NATO airspace reached an unprecedented scale this month, raising questions about whether the Kremlin is testing the alliance’s resolve or attempting to divert its attention and resources from the war in Ukraine.
While Russia has encroached on its NATO neighbors’ airspace for decades—typically denying the incidents or dismissing them as unintentional—such violations have carried a greater threat since its 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The recent incursions have been more severe, notably when a swarm of drones flew deep into Poland two weeks ago, prompting NATO to scramble jets to intercept them.
Last week, Estonia reported that Russian fighter jets entered its territory and remained for 12 minutes, an incursion its foreign minister described as “unprecedently brazen.” Russia denied the incident occurred. Romania and Latvia have also reported separate violations of their airspace by single Russian drones this month.
Given Moscow’s slow but steady battlefield progress in Ukraine, its recent provocations raise questions about why it would risk a direct military confrontation with the alliance.
The intrusion over Poland on September 10, involving approximately 20 Russian drones, marked the first direct military engagement between NATO and Russia since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine began. While Russia denied targeting Poland, European leaders have framed the event, along with the violation of Estonian airspace and other recent incidents, as part of a deliberate scheme.
Experts believe the uptick in airspace violations may be an attempt by Russia to gauge the alliance’s reaction time and exploit any indecision. Some suggest Russia hopes to force NATO to divert resources from supporting Ukraine to defending its own territory.
“Maybe their calculation was that now the European countries have to send something additionally to Estonia regarding the air defense assets, and that means they cannot send it to Ukraine,” said Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur. “Russia is trying to tear us out from Ukraine.”
Mark Galeotti, an expert in Russian politics, described the intrusions as “coercive signaling” aimed at discouraging NATO members from offering robust security guarantees to Kyiv. “This is Moscow trying to say, ‘Just look how dangerous things already are and how dangerous they could get,'” Galeotti stated.
Edward Lucas, a senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis, argued that Russia may be trying to highlight NATO’s perceived weaknesses. “Russia does not need to defeat NATO militarily if it can defeat it politically,” Lucas wrote, suggesting the goal is to make allies doubt whether other members would come to their aid.
Following the drone incident, Poland triggered a NATO mechanism that allows any member to call a full meeting when its security is threatened. The alliance responded by bolstering air defenses along its eastern flank and warned Moscow it would use all necessary means to defend against further breaches.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk asserted that his country would “without discussion” shoot down any object that enters its territory. However, it remains unclear if all allies would support such an aggressive approach. NATO leadership has stated that decisions to fire on intruding aircraft would be based on “available intelligence regarding the threat posed by the aircraft.” The U.S. has also projected a tougher stance, with officials indicating that intruding Russian aircraft should be shot down, though they have been less clear on whether American forces would directly intervene to support such an action.
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