With the September 30 government funding deadline just days away, congressional lawmakers remain at an impasse, pushing the federal government to the brink of a shutdown.
Despite Republicans controlling both Congress and the White House, Senate rules require at least seven Democrats to support any spending package. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer has conditioned his party’s support on several items, including an extension of enhanced Affordable Care Act premium subsidies. In contrast, GOP leaders are pushing for a seven-week funding extension that includes additional security funds for all three branches of government.
President Donald Trump appears disinclined to compromise, canceling a meeting with Democratic leaders this week and calling their demands “totally unreasonable” on Thursday.
If an agreement is not reached, the resulting shutdown could be unlike any in recent history. The White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB) has signaled a new strategy, urging agencies to downsize staff in programs that lack funding and do not align with the president’s priorities.
This is familiar territory for Trump, whose first term included the longest government shutdown on record—a 35-day standoff that began in late 2018.
Congress is required to fund federal departments annually for the fiscal year that begins on October 1. Failure to pass a full-year spending package or a short-term extension, known as a continuing resolution, forces many agencies and activities to cease operations. Because lawmakers have not passed any of the 12 appropriations bills that constitute the federal discretionary budget, the country is facing a full government shutdown. In the past, partial shutdowns occurred when Congress had approved funding for some agencies while others went dark.
While every shutdown is different, functions deemed essential for protecting lives and property typically remain operational. Agencies create contingency plans outlining which operations will continue and how many employees, many working without pay, will stay on the job. In a departure from previous practice, the OMB is not posting these plans on its central website, instead requiring each agency to host its own. This makes it more difficult to assess the administration’s strategy and which activities it considers essential.
Past shutdowns have halted food inspections, canceled immigration hearings, and delayed federal loans to homebuyers and small businesses. During the last major shutdown, the IRS struggled to provide students with the tax documents needed for financial aid, and the USDA warned it could only guarantee food stamp benefits through February.
However, major benefit programs like Social Security and Medicare will continue uninterrupted. Essential services, including law enforcement and border patrol, are also unaffected. Some government functions can continue temporarily if they are funded through fees or other appropriations. Immigration, border patrol, and defense activities funded by the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, signed by Trump in July, are also expected to continue.
While most Veterans Affairs medical services would remain operational, a shutdown would prevent the VA from collecting copayments and providing certain grants for suicide prevention and services for homeless or mentally ill veterans.
Administrations have discretion in defining what is essential. During his first term, Trump took steps to lessen the public impact of the shutdown, such as allowing the IRS to process tax refunds—a change from prior practice. This time, the approach may be different. An OMB memo threatening widespread layoffs suggests the administration might aim to make this shutdown more disruptive.
National parks have experienced varied impacts. The 16-day shutdown in 2013 resulted in an estimated $414 million in lost economic activity. In 2019, many parks remained accessible but without visitor services, costing the National Park Service $400,000 per day in lost entrance fees. In some cases, states like Utah, Arizona, and Colorado have used their own funds to keep major national parks operational.
Air travel is also vulnerable. Air traffic controllers and TSA officers are considered essential and must work without pay. During the 2019 shutdown, staffing shortages led to significant flight disruptions, including a temporary halt to travel at New York’s LaGuardia Airport, which ultimately pressured Trump to agree to a temporary funding measure.
Federal workers are most directly affected. While some are furloughed, essential employees must continue working, often without pay until the shutdown ends. During the last near-shutdown, over 1.4 million employees were deemed essential, while nearly 900,000 faced furloughs. The Defense Department has already informed military and civilian personnel that they will not be paid after September 30 until Congress approves new funding. Similarly, federal courts have warned they could be affected within days due to tight budgets. While federal employees are guaranteed back pay, government contractors who are laid off often have no such protection.
Shutdowns have significant economic consequences. The five-week shutdown in 2018-2019 caused a permanent $3 billion loss in economic growth, according to the Congressional Budget Office. The CBO also estimated that reduced IRS compliance activities during that period led to a $2 billion drop in tax revenue, much of which was never recovered. The U.S. Travel Association has warned that a shutdown could cost the travel economy $1 billion each week through flight delays, longer security lines, and canceled trips.
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