Middle Tennessee State vs. Kennesaw State
Middle Tennessee State enters this matchup with a 1-3 record after a 42-28 home loss to Marshall. Despite the defeat, the Blue Raiders’ offense was effective, with quarterback Nicholas Vattiato throwing for 299 yards and two touchdowns. Kennesaw State evened its record at 2-2 by defeating Arkansas State 28-21. The Owls were powered by dual-threat quarterback Amari Odom, who passed for 308 yards and a touchdown while also rushing for 101 yards and another score.
The Blue Raiders have been ineffective on the road, averaging only 2.4 yards per rush while their defense surrenders 5.9 yards per carry and a 71% completion rate. In contrast, Kennesaw State thrives at home, rushing for 4.8 yards per carry and holding opponents to just 3.1 yards on the ground. Given Middle Tennessee State’s 2-6 record against the spread in conference road games, the Owls are positioned for a comfortable win.
The Pick: Kennesaw State -7.5
Liberty vs. Old Dominion
Liberty’s record dropped to 1-3 following a 21-13 home loss to James Madison, a game marked by poor passing and an injury to quarterback Ethan Vasko, though he has since received a positive update. Conversely, Old Dominion improved to 2-1 with an impressive 45-26 road victory over Virginia Tech, where the offense generated 526 total yards. Monarchs quarterback Colton Joseph was efficient, completing 16 of 22 passes for 276 yards and two touchdowns.
Liberty is hampered by inconsistent quarterback play and a defense that allows 6.1 yards per rush. Old Dominion’s offense, however, has been explosive, averaging 7.7 yards per carry. The Monarchs also proved competitive in a narrow loss at Indiana. With Liberty failing to cover the spread in six consecutive games and losing all of its FBS matchups this season by double digits, Old Dominion is poised for a dominant performance.
The Pick: Old Dominion -16
Jacksonville State vs. Southern Miss
Jacksonville State moved to 2-2 with a 45-10 victory over FCS opponent Murray State. In their previous FBS game, the Gamecocks lost a 41-34 shootout to Georgia Southern, where their defense was exposed, allowing 5.2 yards per rush and 8.0 yards per pass attempt. Southern Miss also sits at 2-2 after a 30-20 road loss to Louisiana Tech. In that contest, quarterback Braylon Braxton had a prolific day, passing for 392 yards and two touchdowns.
The Golden Eagles have been formidable on defense at home. Jacksonville State, meanwhile, has struggled with quarterback play and pass defense in its road games. With the Gamecocks posting a 3-5 record against the spread in non-conference road games and the Golden Eagles going 4-1 against the spread as a home favorite, Southern Miss has the clear edge.
The Pick: Southern Miss -4
Arizona vs. Iowa State
Arizona remains undefeated at 3-0 after securing a 23-17 home win against Kansas State. The Wildcats’ ground game was dominant, racking up 234 yards, though their passing attack was less efficient. Iowa State is also undefeated at 4-0 following a 24-16 road victory over Arkansas State. Cyclones quarterback Rocco Becht passed for 265 yards and a touchdown in the win.
This marks Arizona’s first true road game of the season. Last year, the Wildcats were outscored 146-59 in their final three road contests. Iowa State has been strong on defense and features an accurate quarterback, averaging 8.5 yards per pass attempt. The Cyclones are 3-0 against the spread at home when favored by 3.5 to 10 points, while the Wildcats are 0-3 against the spread as a road underdog of seven or fewer points.
The Pick: Iowa State -6.5
Virginia Tech vs. NC State
Virginia Tech stands at 1-3, and the program is in turmoil after firing its head coach following a 45-26 home loss to Old Dominion. The Hokies’ defense has been a major liability, allowing 9.7 yards per pass attempt and surrendering over 40 points in its last two FBS games. NC State fell to 3-1 after a 45-33 road loss to Duke, a game in which their offense gained 535 yards but quarterback CJ Bailey committed four turnovers.
The Wolfpack offense has been potent, averaging 4.9 yards per carry and completing 72% of its passes. While NC State’s pass defense has been suspect, Virginia Tech’s defensive struggles are more severe. With the Hokies having gone over the total in nine of their last twelve road games and NC State going over in five of its last seven, this game projects to be a high-scoring affair.
The Pick: Virginia Tech and NC State Over 58
Western Kentucky vs. Missouri State
Western Kentucky improved to 3-1 with a 31-16 home victory over Nevada, highlighted by quarterback Maverick Mcivor’s 216 passing yards. Missouri State, now 2-2, is coming off a win against an FCS team but previously lost 28-10 at home to SMU. In that loss, the Bears were held to just two yards per carry while their defense surrendered 7.8 yards per pass attempt.
Missouri State has struggled to run the football and has been poor on both sides of the ball. Western Kentucky, however, boasts an efficient passing attack, completing 67.3% of its passes for 8.0 yards per attempt, and a strong pass defense that allows only 5.7 yards per attempt. The Hilltoppers are also 2-0 against the spread as a road favorite of seven points or fewer.
The Pick: Western Kentucky +5
Memphis vs. FAU
Memphis is a perfect 4-0 after a 32-31 victory against Arkansas, a game where the Tigers rushed for 290 yards at 7.1 yards per carry. Quarterback Brendon Lewis led the charge with 103 rushing yards and two scores. FAU fell to 1-2 after a 38-28 road loss to FIU, in which quarterback Caden Veltkamp threw three interceptions.
Memphis has excelled across the board, averaging 5.9 yards per rush while holding opponents to 3.3. The Tigers have covered the spread in seven straight games, including a 21-point road win over an improving Troy team. FAU’s only wins have come against weak competition, and the Owls are 1-5 against the spread as a home underdog.
The Pick: Memphis -13.5
Oregon vs. Penn State
Oregon enters this showdown at 4-0 after a commanding victory over Oregon State where the offense generated 585 total yards. Quarterback Dante Moore was spectacular, throwing for 305 yards and four touchdowns. Penn State is 3-0, with its most recent FBS win being a 34-0 shutout against FIU, a game where quarterback Drew Allar threw for 200 yards and two scores.
Penn State has faced a weak schedule, which could make for a difficult adjustment against Oregon’s elite speed. In their road win at Northwestern, the Ducks rushed for 5.9 yards per carry and sat their starters in the fourth quarter. Oregon is 7-3 against the spread on the road, while Penn State is just 1-3 against the spread at home when facing teams that average 31 or more points per game.
The Pick: Oregon +3.5
Appalachian State vs. Boise State
Appalachian State is 2-1 following a 38-22 road loss to Southern Miss, where quarterback AJ Swann threw three interceptions and the team rushed for only 2.5 yards per carry. Boise State, now 2-1, is coming off a 49-37 road win at Air Force. The Broncos’ offense was unstoppable, piling up 592 total yards, with quarterback Maddux Madsen passing for 276 yards and two touchdowns.
Appalachian State has played a weak schedule and struggled defensively on the road, allowing 9.0 yards per pass attempt. This is Boise State’s first home game against an FBS opponent, and their offense is averaging an explosive 6.9 yards per rush. With the Mountaineers going 0-3 against the spread after a bye week and the Broncos boasting a 9-2 record against the spread as a home favorite, Boise State is set to win decisively.
The Pick: Boise State -15.5
Massachusetts vs. Missouri
UMass fell to 0-3 after a 47-7 road loss to Iowa, managing only 26 rushing yards. The Minutemen are in a difficult situation at quarterback, with starter Brandson Rose injured and redshirt freshman AJ Hairston stepping in. Missouri improved to a perfect 4-0 with a 29-20 home victory over South Carolina, a game where the Tigers rushed for 285 yards and held the Gamecocks to -9 yards on the ground.
UMass is averaging just 2.7 yards per carry and is struggling on both sides of the ball. Missouri, meanwhile, is averaging 46 points per game behind a powerful rushing attack. The Tigers are 3-0 against the spread at home when favored by 31 or more points, making this a prime spot for a blowout.
The Pick: Missouri -44.5
San Jose State vs. Stanford
San Jose State enters with a 1-2 record, with its last FBS contest being a 38-7 road loss to Texas where the Spartans’ offense was ineffective. Stanford dropped to 1-3 after a 48-20 road defeat at Virginia in which their defense allowed 590 total yards.
The Spartans have been hindered by inaccurate quarterback play. Stanford, however, looked impressive in its lone home game, a ten-point victory over Boston College. In that win, the Cardinal held BC to 2.4 yards per rush while gaining 5.8 yards per carry themselves behind efficient quarterback play. This matchup favors the home team.
The Pick: Stanford -3
Alabama vs. Georgia
Alabama improved to 2-1 with a 38-14 victory over Wisconsin, where quarterback Ty Simpson was exceptional, throwing for 382 yards and four touchdowns. Georgia remains undefeated at 3-0 after a thrilling 44-41 road win at Tennessee. The Bulldogs’ offense gained 502 yards, with quarterback Gunnor Stockton accounting for 342 total yards and three touchdowns.
In Alabama’s loss at Florida State, the Crimson Tide were held to just 3.0 yards per carry and struggled to stop the run. Georgia features an accurate passing game and a defense that holds opponents to 2.7 yards per rush. Alabama is just 1-4 against the spread on the road against teams that allow 3.25 or fewer yards per carry, giving Georgia the advantage.
The Pick: Georgia -3
Washington State vs. Colorado State
Washington State dropped to 2-2 after a 59-24 home loss to Washington, a game where the Cougars’ rushing attack was completely stifled, gaining just 27 yards on 28 carries. Colorado State sits at 1-2 following a 17-16 home defeat to UTSA. The Rams have made a quarterback change, with Jackson Brousseau taking over for an ineffective Braydon Fowler-Nicolosi.
Despite their recent loss, the Cougars still feature an accurate passing game that averages 8.4 yards per attempt. The Rams’ passing attack has been ineffective all season. Washington State has already secured a 23-point home victory over a Mountain West opponent (San Diego State) and appears well-equipped to handle this matchup.
The Pick: Washington State +6
Kentucky vs. South Carolina
Kentucky, now 2-1, is coming off a 48-23 home victory over Eastern Michigan, where the offense was dominant through the air and on the ground. South Carolina fell to 2-2 with a 29-20 road loss at Missouri in which the Gamecocks rushed for -9 yards.
South Carolina has struggled mightily in conference play, averaging just 1.8 yards per carry while allowing 5.2 yards per rush on defense. The Gamecocks even lost at home to Vanderbilt, 31-7. Kentucky, meanwhile, was competitive against Ole Miss and rushed for 4.6 yards per carry. The Wildcats are 6-3 against the spread as a road underdog, while the Gamecocks are 3-5 against the spread at home versus winning teams.
The Pick: Kentucky +5.5
Marshall vs. Louisiana
Marshall improved to 2-2 with an impressive 42-28 road win at Middle Tennessee State. Quarterback Carlos Del Rio-Wilson was nearly perfect, throwing for 261 yards and four touchdowns. Louisiana dropped to 1-3 after a 34-31 road loss to Eastern Michigan, a game where their defense allowed 5.1 yards per carry.
The Thundering Herd defense has been stout, holding opponents to 3.4 yards per rush and a 56% completion rate. The Ragin’ Cajuns, however, are allowing 4.8 yards per run and a 68.1% completion rate. Marshall is 3-1 against the spread as a road favorite, while Louisiana is just 5-10 against the spread at home.
The Pick: Marshall -1
Louisiana Tech vs. UTEP
Louisiana Tech is 3-1 after a 30-20 home victory over Southern Miss, with backup quarterback Blake Baker playing well in place of the injured Trey Kukuk. UTEP dropped to 1-3 with a 31-25 home defeat to UL Monroe, where the defense was gashed for 6.0 yards per carry and nearly 10 yards per pass attempt.
Louisiana Tech’s defense has been excellent, holding opponents to 3.1 yards per rush and a 56.6% completion rate. UTEP’s only win came against an FCS team, and their offense has struggled with an inconsistent run game and inaccurate quarterback play. The Miners are 1-3 against the spread at home versus winning teams, making the Bulldogs a solid choice.
The Pick: Louisiana Tech -3.5
BYU vs. Colorado
BYU improved to 3-0 with a 34-13 road win at East Carolina, where the Cougars averaged 5.1 yards per carry. Quarterback Bear Bachmeier accounted for two touchdowns. Colorado, now 2-2, defeated Wyoming 37-20 at home. Quarterback Kaidon Salter was electric, contributing 390 total yards and four touchdowns.
Colorado lost both of its games against major conference opponents this season, and its defense has been vulnerable, allowing 4.6 yards per rush. BYU’s offense is averaging 6.5 yards per carry, while its defense is dominant, holding opponents to just 1.7 yards per rush and 5.1 yards per pass attempt. The Cougars are 2-0 against the spread on the road when favored by 3.5 to 10 points.
The Pick: BYU -7
