The heralded 2025 rookie running back class, expected to have a major impact, has largely underwhelmed through the first three weeks of the season. While early-season data can be misleading, historical trends suggest that a slow start for a rookie rusher is often a predictor of a season-long struggle to meet draft-day expectations.
In retrospect, warning signs were present for many of the top prospects. Ashton Jeanty joined a Las Vegas team whose run-blocking was ranked last in the league in yards before contact. In Pittsburgh, Omarion Hampton was slated to split work with the durable Najee Harris for a quarterback who rarely targets his running backs. Quinshon Judkins missed training camp due to off-field issues, while TreVeyon Henderson landed behind a subpar offensive line with a coordinator known for situational committees. Other rookies like Kaleb Johnson, RJ Harvey, Cam Skattebo, and Bhayshul Tuten each faced significant obstacles, including incumbent talent, poor line play, or injuries.
This early lack of production is a critical indicator for fantasy football managers. An analysis of past rookie classes reveals a stark pattern: a running back’s performance through Week 3 is a strong predictor of their final season rank. In both the standout 2014 and 2017 classes, nearly every running back who finished the year as a top-20 scorer was already performing at that level after the first three games.
This trend spells trouble for this year’s slow starters, whose fantasy value may not live up to their draft cost. However, the 2017 data provides a notable exception: Alvin Kamara. After a quiet start, Kamara exploded from Week 4 onward to become a league-winning asset. This historical precedent raises the question of whether a similar breakout candidate exists in the current class.
The most compelling parallel is Denver Broncos rookie RJ Harvey. The comparisons to Kamara were prevalent throughout the pre-draft process, with both players noted for their explosive style and a tendency to bounce runs outside. When Harvey was drafted by Kamara’s former coach, Sean Payton, expectations soared. Payton has a history of successfully utilizing satellite backs like Kamara and Reggie Bush, designing plays that get them the ball in space. Furthermore, Harvey landed behind one of the NFL’s best-rated offensive lines, a significant advantage over his rookie peers.
Despite the ideal setup, Harvey’s production has been minimal. A single 50-yard run accounts for the bulk of his yardage, masking an otherwise quiet start. However, a closer look reveals parallels to Kamara’s own initial foray into the league. Through three weeks, Harvey has actually received more carries than Kamara did in his first three games as a rookie.
More importantly, Harvey is showing clear signs of development. Film analysis from the preseason reveals a player who initially bounced nearly every run outside but learned to be more patient and follow his blockers as the games progressed. This discipline carried into the regular season, where his most explosive play—the 50-yard gain—came on a decisive run straight up the middle.
The primary difference between Harvey’s start and Kamara’s is his involvement in the passing game. By Week 4 of his rookie year, Kamara had already seen 18 targets. Harvey has only six. This suggests he is not yet the immediate receiving threat Kamara was, but it also presents an opportunity. For a Broncos offense in need of explosive plays, increased targets for Harvey could be a logical next step.
While most of this year’s highly-drafted rookie running backs appear to be on a disappointing trajectory, RJ Harvey’s unique situation and observable on-field adjustments make him a prime candidate to buck the trend. With his value currently suppressed, now is the time to acquire the player who has the clearest path to becoming this season’s late-blooming star.
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