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(Trends Wide) — Can Joe Biden avoid the midterm curse?
Republicans have the momentum heading into Election Day on Tuesday, with high hopes of taking back the House of Representatives. The Senate will decide on a handful of close races. If the GOP takes one or both chambers, it will be in a position to kill Biden’s national legislative agenda. Still, they will have a hard time getting policies past the president’s veto, which requires a two-thirds majority to override. The next two years could see an America led by a divided government, with bitter clashes, financial duels and partisan investigations.
What will happen this Tuesday?
In the House of Representatives, where lawmakers serve two-year terms, all 435 seats are up for grabs. Democrats currently narrowly control the chamber, but Republicans only need a net gain of five seats to win a majority.
A total of 35 seats are contested in the 100-seat Senate. The chamber where incumbents serve for six years is split 50-50, with Democrats currently in control as Vice President Kamala Harris casts a tiebreaking vote. But the Republicans only require a net gain of one seat to take control.
There are also a number of other races to watch out for, including 36 gubernatorial races and many more junior races. Races for secretary of state at the state level have taken on added importance this year as they control state elections, including the 2024 presidential race. There are also races for state legislatures and ballot initiatives on issues including abortion access, changes to voting systems, gun control measures, and the legalization of recreational marijuana.
What is at stake?
In every election, candidates tell voters that this is the most important election of their lives. This time they may be right.
A Republican wave would bring dozens of candidates who are banking on false claims by former President Donald Trump that the 2020 election was stolen. The former president would likely weaponize a Republican-controlled House against Biden before the 2024 presidential vote; Rep. Kevin McCarthy, who would likely become House Speaker if Republicans win, has not ruled out impeaching Biden, despite the absence of evidence that he committed a chargeable crime.
An upset Democratic victory would allow Biden to flesh out his health, social and climate change legislation and balance the judiciary with liberal judges after four years of conservative Trump elections.
What issues will decide the election?
The cliché, “it’s the economy, stupid,” dating back to Bill Clinton’s 1992 presidential campaign, is everywhere this election season. But it should be, “it’s inflation, stupid.” The US cost of living is at its highest level in 40 years, putting voters in a disaffected frame of mind. High gas prices haven’t helped either, and the post-pandemic sense of normalcy promised by Biden remains elusive.
The president has struggled to frame economic challenges in a strong political message or to give voters confidence that prices will fall soon. Some Democrats now wonder if their candidates ignored voters’ real concerns by spending so much time arguing that Republicans would destroy American democracy.
Democrats had hoped that the conservative Supreme Court’s overturning of abortion rights would provoke a harsh backlash against the GOP. This could happen in some areas, but the economy has repeatedly been the top concern of voters in polls leading up to Election Day.
The Republicans have not had to work too hard, their strategy has been to simply blame everything on Biden, despite the fact that inflation is being driven mainly by external factors such as the pandemic and the war in Ukraine. They have also cast Democratic positions on education, crime and immigration as far left of the mainstream.
What to watch on election night
House Indicators: The best way to watch the results is to pick a few key races that give us an idea of where the election is headed. If Republicans start to win big in suburban areas and House districts where Biden was far more popular than Trump in 2020, it would be fair to say they’re in for a big night.
Given the narrow margin in the House of Representatives, Republicans could effectively win a majority by sweeping contested seats in only one state like New York. A key battle will occur in a new seat created from post-census redistricting: Colorado’s 8th congressional district; if the Republicans win, they will be on a roll.
Another close race will take place in Virginia’s 7th District, where former CIA official and Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger is seeking re-election against Trump conservative Republican Yesli Vega. If Democrats can hold out in this redrawn district, which became more favorable to them in redistricting, it won’t mean they’ll win the House, but it could mean they’ll keep the GOP gain below overwhelming levels. Spanberger, one of the Democrats’ strongest incumbents, has not hesitated to criticize the president or her party.
And let’s keep an eye on Michigan’s 7th District, where another former CIA officer and Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin is running for re-election. Slotkin is a moderate who distanced herself from fast-paced progressive politics and criticized her party for not doing more to address the economic damage facing Americans.
Senate Battlegrounds – In the Senate, keep an eye out for head-to-head battles in Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia. If Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan loses her reelection bid in New Hampshire, it’s a sure sign it’s GOP night.
Pennsylvania represents the best chance for Democrats to win a seat held by Republicans, but its candidate John Fetterman suffered a stroke just before winning the party’s nomination in May. Even off the campaign trail over the summer, Fetterman had the upper hand over his Republican challenger, but the recent debate between the two raised new questions about the lingering effects of the stroke on the Democratic nominee.
Republicans are trying to win seats held by Democrats in Arizona, Nevada and Georgia. If neither candidate in Georgia gets 50% of the vote, there will be a December runoff, meaning uncertainty over who will run the Senate for the next two years could drag on for weeks.
What the election means for American democracy
This is the first national election since the cataclysm of 2020 when Trump refused to admit defeat and tried to stay in power. Biden took office two weeks later with a message of healing and national unity. But his vision that America’s best angels could unite a polarized country has faded. Trump still won’t admit that he lost, and he’s using the lie that he was illegally forced out of office to launch a long-awaited re-election bid. Millions of Americans believe him, creating an intensity among core supporters that could see the Republican Party return to power in Congress.
A key development to watch Tuesday is whether Republicans who lose their races accept defeat, or like Trump insist they won and cite non-existent election irregularities. Another source of tension will arise in races in which Republicans appear to be leading the vote count until large batches of early and mail-in ballots are tabulated at the same time. Trump used that scenario to cast false doubt on the integrity of the 2020 election.
What if the Republican Party regains power?
We don’t need to guess. The GOP is already telling us that it will make life miserable for Biden and try to destroy his re-election hopes. McCarthy told Trends Wide in an exclusive interview that he plans to subject the White House to an intense round of investigations into everything from the origins of Covid-19 to the withdrawal from Afghanistan.
The GOP also plans to target Biden’s son Hunter for his business dealings, and will seek to discredit and disrupt FBI and Justice Department investigations into Trump. In the Senate, a Republican majority would make it extraordinarily difficult for Biden to confirm cabinet appointments, key officials, foreign ambassadors and judges. We can expect a period of bitter clashes over US government budgets and debt limits, a crisis that could throw the world economy into deeper turmoil.
What does this election mean for Biden?
History shows that newly elected presidents almost always face a harsh backlash in midterm elections two years later. That’s why they jam top legislative priorities early in their term.
If Democrats don’t fare as poorly as some fear, Biden will get a boost as he contemplates whether to run for re-election. If the Republicans win big, it will raise new questions about his prospects in 2024. The president will turn 80 in a few weeks, an occasion to celebrate, but also an unwelcome reminder of his own political responsibilities.
However, not everything is dark for the president. His two Democratic predecessors, Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, suffered debilitating rebukes from voters in the midterms, but bounced back to easily win re-election two years later. The question is whether Biden will have the energy and political savvy to use what would be an extremist Republican Congress as a foil.
What does this election mean for Trump?
The former president has made the midterms a loyalty test for Republicans, who have had to pay for his support by amplifying his false claims of voter fraud in 2020. Republican leaders would have preferred Trump to stay out of the election entirely. , but that’s not how it works.
Trump was instrumental in his party losing the House in 2018 and the Senate and the White House in 2020, and he may be a killjoy again as his elected protégés in Pennsylvania, Georgia and Ohio have heavy responsibilities as candidates. If Republicans do well on Tuesday night, Trump will get the credit. If they don’t meet expectations, he will blame everyone else.
Either way, it seems certain that the former president will run again in 2024, a campaign that could trigger a political collapse as there is a chance he could be impeached for his accumulation of classified documents or embezzlement after the 2020 election.
In short, a Republican victory on Tuesday, especially in the House, will mean that two years after he left in disgrace, Trumpism is back in power.
