The Eurasia Risk Analysis Consulting Group said that the US presidential elections will pose the greatest political risk to the world in 2024, regardless of who wins, due to the abuse of the institutions of the most powerful democracy in the world.
In its annual report released yesterday, Monday, the Political Risk Analysis Foundation said that the November 5 elections “will test American democracy to a degree that the nation has not witnessed in 150 years,” referring to the civil war.
She added, “The United States is already the most divided and dysfunctional advanced industrial democracy in the world. The 2024 elections will exacerbate this problem regardless of the winner.”
“Because the outcome of the vote is essentially a choice between two people (at least for now), the only thing that is certain is continued damage to America’s social fabric, the country’s political institutions, and its international standing,” the group continued.
Biden and Trump
The report said that if Donald Trump – the current Republican front-runner – loses again to President Joe Biden, the real estate mogul will likely again allege massive fraud and “incite widespread intimidation campaigns” against election officials and workers. .
He added that the United States, if Biden wins a second term, may also face an “unprecedented political crisis” if Trump goes to prison in one of the many cases in which he faces charges, although it is unlikely that the country will witness large-scale violence.
If Trump wins, the group expects Biden to concede defeat, but adds that many Democrats will also view Trump as illegitimate, and some will refuse to confirm his victory, citing the Constitution, which prohibits anyone who “participates in insurrection” from holding such an office.
Trump is also expected to use government institutions to pursue his opponents and crush any opposition to him, upon his return to the presidency, according to the group.
Middle East and Ukraine
On the other hand, the Eurasia Group ranked violence in the Middle East as the second greatest global risk, with war between Israel and Hamas potentially being “only the first phase of a widening conflict in 2024.”
The third biggest danger is Ukraine, as the report predicts that in 2024 the country will actually be divided as Kiev seeks to regain the areas controlled by Russia.
The group said that Ukraine would face another major blow if the United States elected Trump, who opposes sending billions of dollars to Kiev.