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Beirut – It constituted an assassination Saleh Al-Arouri Vice President of the Political Bureau of the Islamic Resistance Movement (agitation) with two leaders of the Qassam Brigades and 4 members of the movement, a major shock at the Lebanese and Palestinian levels, in an operation in which Israel crossed the red lines previously announced by the Secretary-General ofHizb allah Hassan Nasrallah.
The assassination, which Hezbollah confirmed would not go unpunished, comes in implementation of Israeli threats to assassinate Palestinian resistance leaders inside and outside occupied Palestine.
Al-Arouri had received a direct threat from the Prime Minister of the Israeli occupation government Benjamin Netanyahu In August 2023, when he threatened him with assassination, accusing him of being behind the Hamas attacks, BWest BankAt the time, Yedioth Ahronoth described him as “the head of the snake.”
The southern suburb, located between the southern coast of Beirut and the beginning of Mount Lebanon east of the capital, is the main stronghold of Hezbollah, inhabited by about one million people, and has a prominent presence of the party, in addition to its official headquarters and the offices of its deputies and leaders and their homes, and it is also where it organizes its various activities, which means that the goal of the operation is The Israeli attack is double: the assassination of senior Palestinian leaders of Hamas on the one hand, and the attack, threat and breach of Hezbollah’s stronghold and its political, popular and security incubator on the other hand.
With Israel committing what Nasrallah personally warned it about, how will Hezbollah respond to the operation?
Rationale
Yesterday evening, Tuesday, the southern suburb of Beirut was shaken by the sound of a large explosion, which turned out to be an Israeli air strike that targeted a Hamas office where Al-Arouri and his companions were located, which led to their martyrdom and the wounding of others.
The first strike of its kind since October 7, which occurred in a crowded residential and commercial area, terrified the citizens, and they fled as black clouds of smoke rose as three missiles struck the building.
An eyewitness from the area told Al Jazeera Net, “We thought at first glance that the war had broken out and that the Israeli bombing had begun on the suburb,” after residents saw human remains in the vicinity of the place near Hadi Nasrallah Road, in addition to the destruction and extensive material damage as a result of the fires.
Ambulances and civil defense rushed to evacuate the dead and wounded, and the Lebanese army and security services attended, setting up a security cordon and closing various roads leading to the place in order to remove forensic evidence.
Following the operation, the airspace of the suburb and Beirut witnessed heavy flights by Israeli warplanes, noting that the Israeli drones do not stop flying heavily over all Lebanese territory for their reconnaissance surveys and espionage operations.
The assassination of Al-Arouri, the most prominent founder of the Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades, the military wing of the Hamas movement, came shortly before Nasrallah’s expected speech, and Israeli Channel 13 claimed that they were going to meet tomorrow.
Al-Arouri, who resides in Lebanon, has a strong relationship with Nasrallah, and there are many pictures that bring them together. His assassination also came hours after an Israeli official announced that the forces withdrawing from Gaza would prepare for a possible second front in Lebanon.
Although it is the harshest operation in the suburb since the July 2006 war, it is also reminiscent of a specific operation carried out by two Israeli drones in the southern suburb in August 2019, when a raid struck near a Hezbollah media relations office, and was limited to material damage.
Netanyahu asked his government ministers not to comment on the assassination of Al-Arouri, and his officials were quoted as saying that the operation targeted Al-Arouri and not Hezbollah or the Lebanese government.
Condemnable positions
Lebanese, Palestinian and Arab positions condemned the assassination of Al-Arouri, the most prominent of which was internally the position of the caretaker prime minister. Najib Mikatiwho said that “a new Israeli crime aims to bring Lebanon into a new phase of confrontations after the ongoing daily attacks in the south.”
While Lebanese Foreign Minister Abdullah Bou Habib instructed to submit two strongly worded protests toTo the United Nations About the dangerous Israeli aggression on the suburb and the attempt to lure Lebanon into a comprehensive escalation.
Under the slogan “Revenge, Revenge”… Palestinians demonstrate in Ramallah after Hamas announced the martyrdom of the leader #Saleh_Arouri By drone in the southern suburb of Beirut#Gaza_War pic.twitter.com/tOeWJnKBTz
– Al Jazeera Channel (@AJArabic) January 2, 2024
Response scenarios
In a lengthy statement in which Hezbollah mourned Al-Arouri, the party said that the crime of assassinating him and his fellow martyrs in the heart of the suburb “is a dangerous assault on Lebanon, its people, its security, sovereignty, and its resistance, and the political and security messages it contains are extremely symbolic and significant, and a dangerous development in the course of the war between the enemy and the axis of resistance.” We in Hezbollah affirm that the crime will never go without response or punishment.”
Observers believe that the assassination of Al-Arouri brought the confrontation between the party and Israel into a new and dangerous turn after the latter crossed the red lines of the rules of engagement between the two parties, as the pace of the confrontation has increased daily since the eighth of last October, since Hezbollah announced its support of the Palestinian resistance in a war that occupied the Israeli occupation forces on its front. North.
As the strikes between them continued, the number of Hezbollah martyrs exceeded 130, which raised questions about the nature of Israeli espionage and tracking in Lebanon digitally, reconnaissance, and through communications.
Many believe that the party is facing a test, as Nasrallah repeatedly threatened that any assassination of a leader in the Lebanese or Palestinian resistance inside Lebanon and the Lebanese interior would be met with a clear Israeli response.
The writer and political analyst Ibrahim Bayram told Al Jazeera Net that the assassination of Al-Arouri was expected because he was “one of the three heads orchestrated by Al-Qassam with Yahya Al-Sinwar and Muhammad Al-Deif, and he received several threats,” while the writer and political analyst Tawfiq Shoman says that his assassination is an unexpected dangerous escalation from Israel because it ventured to cross the lines. The Reds are anticipating the kind of punishment that the party promised.
Speaking to Al Jazeera Net, Shoman believes that the operation will not pass without a major response, because it put Nasrallah’s warnings to the test, and “any limited response means Israel will once again dare to carry out similar operations inside Lebanon.”
But Bayram believes that southern Lebanon is witnessing a real war, and that its development deep into Lebanon is not an easy decision, “which prompted Israel to promote that it struck a Palestinian target, not a Lebanese one.”
Bayram does not rule out that Hezbollah will accommodate the operation within its policy of not allowing Israel to take it wherever it wants, “in exchange for directing a harsh blow to Israel for its direct threat to its security and political apparatus within its popular stronghold.”
Bayram recalls that Israel is unable to open a wide front with Lebanon without direct American military support, at a time when the US Navy announced hours ago that the aircraft carrier “Ford” would return to its base in the United States, after months of stationing in the Mediterranean Sea to protect Israel following the operation. Al-Aqsa flood.
Bayram believes that the withdrawal of the American fleet is evidence of Washington’s efforts to contain tension in the region, and a reflection of its new disagreement with Israel in managing the war, which puts the latter in an awkward position.
But Shoman believes that Israel’s defeats may push it to venture with Lebanon, and he says, “Nasrallah may change the titles of his speech to announce a heated position, because the Al-Arouri assassination, in its form, content, and location, can only be dealt with as a dangerous and exceptional escalation.”
Bayram believes that, by assassinating Al-Arouri, Israel is looking for an impossible image of victory in the Gaza Strip, and it may be a prelude to the beginning of its exit from a war that it is not ready to expand in scope, “unless its choice is suicidal by igniting a wide war with Lebanon, which is what the various international and regional parties, their allies and opponents, do not want.” .
