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Washington- With the return of the former president Donald Trump to The white house With a new president, Ukrainians risk losing US Their biggest ally.
The outbreak of war prompted Ukraine More than two years ago, a relationship dilemma emerged Washington NATO (NATO) is on the list of issues in the 2024 election race, especially since Trump has a long record of hostility, contradiction, and disdain for the legacy of the largest and most powerful military alliance in the world.
His victory comes at a dangerous time for Europe as progress continues Russia In Ukraine, do not hide the Russian president Vladimir Putin His desire to undermine NATO andEuropean Union like that.
American experts fear Trump's tendency to impose an “unjust” peace on… KyivAt a time when they spoke of many doubts about the future and survival of the alliance.
Disastrous results
Alexander Downs, director of the Institute for Conflict and Security Studies at George Washington University and an expert on international conflicts, says that NATO’s unity may be greatly affected after Trump’s victory, and that would be disastrous for Ukraine and perhaps some NATO countries, given his statements that “it will encourage Russia to do whatever it wants to members of the alliance who They don't spend enough on defense.”
The White House rushed to provide more weapons to Ukraine as soon as Trump's victory in the presidential elections was confirmed last Tuesday. The president's administration began joe biden Procedures for disbursing more than $6 billion remaining for this aid before the inauguration of the new president on January 20.
Trump, who has good relations with the Russian president, repeatedly criticized the Ukrainian president's requests Volodymyr Zelensky To obtain additional American aid, he said, “It never ends.”
For his part, immediately after Trump's victory was announced, Zelensky was quick to congratulate him and tweeted on the X platform, “We look forward to a strong American era under President Trump's decisive leadership.”
Steve Pifer, an expert on European affairs and disarmament at the Brookings Institution, told Al Jazeera Net that the Ukrainian government must try to convince Trump and his senior advisors to maintain American support, but it must also “plan the best way to defend itself against Russia’s aggressive war without American assistance.” “Which I fear the Trump administration will end in 2025.”
Recent weeks have witnessed developments on the battle front lines in eastern Ukraine. The advance of Russian forces continues, and this coincides with the confirmation that thousands of North Korean soldiers have joined the fight with the Russian side.
With Trump's return to the White House, any hopes for Kiev to obtain NATO membership may decline or disappear, and Trump may abandon the American pledge to help it until victory is achieved and all of its national territory is liberated.
Bad news
Speaking to Al Jazeera Net, defense affairs expert Michael Beck considered that Trump's victory is “bad news” for Ukraine. In his opinion, it is very likely that the threat to stop military aid to it will be used to pressure it to make peace with Moscow. As for Russia, this may encourage Putin to intensify the war to obtain a peace agreement that is more suitable for him.
At the same time, the European continent will be among the regions that may be negatively affected by Trump’s rise to power. Aside from his anger at Europe's rising trade surplus and his desire to impose heavy tariffs on German cars, the future of security cooperation represented by NATO may be at stake.
Trump views NATO from a simple commercial perspective (protection in exchange for money), which does not constitute a solid foundation for an alliance like his. He continues to criticize Western European countries' limited defense spending on their defense budgets. In a television interview a few months ago, he said, “No, I will not protect you. I would encourage the Russians to do what they want. You have to pay your bills.”
Article Five of the NATO Charter stipulates that an attack on one of its members is an attack on all of them.
In the opinion of expert Beck, NATO should also be concerned about Trump's second term because America is the focus of the alliance and Europe cannot support Kiev, or even defend itself, without the participation of the United States. Trump may not withdraw America from the alliance, but he will insist that European countries spend more on defense and may also try to prevent NATO from getting involved in conflicts such as the one in Ukraine.
NATO defense spending was a recurring topic in Trump's election campaigns leading up to the 2024 race, and this is consistent with his “America First” agenda, and with attacking his Democratic rivals for their focus on international alliances and ignoring American interests.
Political will
In turn, expert Steve Pifer pointed out that NATO should be concerned. He said that Trump has repeatedly shown that he is skeptical of America's participation in it, “and European leaders must try to communicate early with the president-elect and his new team, but they must also plan how to build a European defense against Russia that does not depend too much on the United States.”
He continued that NATO's European members “have the economic capacity to do this, and the alliance needs the political will to mobilize that capacity.”
During his election campaign, Trump promised to end the war “within 24 hours,” and did not provide any indications about the details of his peace plan, but his supporters have already presented two plans to deal with the war in Ukraine, and his vice president put forward J.D. Vance A vision that includes:
- Firstly: Freeze the conflict at the current borders and lines, and force Ukraine to become a neutral country while pledging not to join NATO.
- secondly: A plan drawn up by Trump's former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo In an article in the Wall Street Journal, he focused on strengthening military and financial support for Kiev as a deterrent to Moscow, while keeping open the possibility of NATO membership. It is not yet known which path Trump will take.
On the other hand, the Biden administration has not met all of Zelensky's demands and has so far hesitated to authorize the use of its long-range missiles to launch strikes inside Russia, and is also deliberately delaying the supply of some advanced weapons systems to Kiev.
Zelensky hopes that Trump's victory will change these rules and support Ukraine more decisively and less hesitantly, as indicated by the British magazine The Economist.
