Much is said in the media about the popularity of President López Obrador. Some analysts argue that this is the basis of the extraordinary power that the Tabasco politician has accumulated. The strength of the executive, they often say, is sustained by the high approval rates reported in public opinion polls.
The historical perspective, however, allows us to see that the popularity of the current head of the Executive Power has very little extraordinary and hardly explains the enormous power that he has accumulated. Of course, having high approval rates helps, but it is insufficient to achieve the degree of concentration of power in the presidency of the Republic that has been reached in the current government.
The historical series of the National Post-Election Survey (ENP), which has been taking place a few days after the federal elections since 1997, shows that the approval rates of Mexican presidents tend to be quite high in the middle of their six-year term.
According to the ENP (an academic study carried out by the Political Studies Division of the CIDE in order to explain the behavior of voters), the president who reached the intermediate election with the highest levels of popularity was Ernesto Zedillo, with 69.4 for hundred. López Obrador appears in second place with 67.3% and Felipe Calderón in third with 66.5 percent.
In fact, the confidence intervals of the presidential approval cross, which means that there is a “technical tie” between Zedillo, López Obrador and Calderón. It cannot be stated with the level of confidence usually required (95%) which was the most popular of the three.
Enrique Peña Nieto is the only exception in the period to the rule of high presidential approval rates. All the presidents have had a popularity above 60%, except the Mexican politician. He reached the intermediate election with 41.8% according to his way of governing.
Of course, presidential approval is easier to measure than to explain. Much has been said about how López Obrador’s popularity rests on his social programs. The empirical evidence of the ENP, however, refutes this belief. The probability of agreeing with López Obrador does not increase significantly among those who benefit from the government’s social programs in Q4.
On the other hand, it is not clear what is the relevance of the presidential approval. The evidence suggests that agreeing with the president’s way of governing significantly increases the probability of voting for his party. However, there are so many factors involved in electoral behavior that they dilute the effect of the approval of the incumbent president.
Peña Nieto was never a popular president, but the PRI (with the help of the Green Party) won the 2015 legislative elections. Instead, Fox and Calderón reached the midterm elections with high popularity rates, which did not prevent the collapse. of the PAN at the polls. López Obrador had a good election in 2021, but the weight that the presidential approval had on the electoral result is not clear.
The agreement with the way of governing of President López Obrador remains at good levels, but they are not unusual. It is not an excuse or justification for caudillismo or the concentration of power. The historical perspective shows that the popularity of a president does not have to be synonymous with populism.
* Professor at CIDE.
Twitter: @BenitoNacif
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Dr. Benito Nacif is a professor in the Political Studies Division of the Center for Economic Research and Teaching (CIDE). He was Electoral Counselor of the National Electoral Institute (INE) from 2014 to 2020 and of the Federal Electoral Institute (IFE) from 2008 to 2014.