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(Trends Wide) — Trading an American jailed for a minor drug offense in Russia for one of the world’s most notorious arms dealers, known as the Death Merchant, might seem like an unbalanced deal that could fuel dangerous national security precedents.
But US President Joe Biden’s decision to trade WNBA star Brittney Griner for Viktor Bout goes beyond the end result of the trade. The negotiation represented a humane resolution to a painful dilemma that arose after tortuous talks with a Russian regime that treats people like geopolitical pawns every day. In that sense, the Biden administration demonstrated the gulf between his moral foundation and that of Russian President Vladimir Putin, who is currently demonstrating his inhumanity on another front, with a fearsome attack on civilians in the war in Ukraine.
But the tragic counterpoint to this diplomatic triumph – the fact that Biden also failed to secure the release of Paul Whelan, another American imprisoned in a Russian penal colony – underscored the relentless moral dilemma he faced. And it led top Republicans to accuse him of prioritizing a basketball superstar over a former Marine who benefited from an overt lobbying campaign on Biden.
The serious risks of the prisoner exchange
There is no avoiding the potential implications of the steps Biden took, which came after previous prisoner swaps with US adversaries conducted by his administration, including an American and a former US Marine detained in Russia, Trevor Reed, and the of former presidents Barack Obama and Donald Trump. There is now a considerable risk that other rogue nations or groups will see Washington as open for negotiations and thus may view Americans abroad as increasingly valuable targets in a vicious cycle of more arrests.
In addition, the return of Bout, who has been linked to Russian security services, dealt Putin a propaganda coup at a time of mounting internal pressure. He allowed her to prove to intelligence agents involved in nefarious activities abroad that the Kremlin will not forget them. Those intelligence services are essential for the Russian leader to maintain power as his war in Ukraine deteriorates further. Still, Biden’s strategy also hinted at intriguing diplomatic possibilities, three days after he refused to rule out further talks with Putin, if Ukraine agrees, to end the ferocious war. He showed that it was possible to deal with Russia, even in the midst of an effective proxy war between the two old Cold War enemies in Ukraine, with the worst relations between Moscow and Washington since the Cuban missile crisis.
Another notable cog in this deal was Saudi Arabia, which helped facilitate the trade along with the United Arab Emirates and also helped secure the release of US citizens captured fighting in Ukraine earlier this year. It remains to be seen whether the kingdom, which has ties to both Moscow and Washington and seeks to increase its global leadership role, could emerge as a mediator in Ukraine. But helping to broker the US-Russia trade could put Biden’s decision to meet the ruthless Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in a slightly different light.
In short, it is impossible not to leave a bitter taste when dealing with an adversary as inhuman as Putin. But it is the job of a president to weigh these competing dynamics within the context of America’s national objectives and duty to its citizens.
In cases like these, there is never a correct answer.
American basketball player Brittney Griner is escorted into a court building in Khimki, on the outskirts of Moscow, Russia, on August 4 (Kirill Kudryavtsev/Reuters)
Biden is under pressure to release another American
The more immediate question facing Biden now is how to extract Paul Whelan, whose hopes were raised and then dashed as he is still in prison and Griner went home, after both were at the center of US diplomacy. USA-Russia.
“This is a precarious situation that needs to be resolved quickly,” a deeply disappointed Whelan told Trends Wide producer at the State Department, Jennifer Hansler, in an exclusive telephone interview. “I hope that [Biden] and your administration do everything they can to get me home, regardless of the price they have to pay right now.”
The hard truth for Whelan is that Russia rejected every incentive the United States could offer to include him in a trade package, leaving in doubt Biden’s ability to free him on short notice.
Russian officials told the US side that a one-for-two swap was not acceptable but resisted broader options, US officials said.
John Kirby, coordinator of Strategic Communications for the National Security Council, told Trends Wide the Kremlin viewed Whelan differently from Griner as he faces espionage charges, though the US says such charges are a sham. This added dimension to Whelan’s imprisonment will fuel speculation that Moscow could take advantage of him as it seeks a tripartite deal with Germany to release a former colonel from its domestic spy agency who was convicted of murder last year. Trends Wide reported in August that Russia had requested that Vadim Krasikov be included in a deal for the two Americans.
This adds another layer of complication for Biden as he seeks to free Whelan, as it involves another government and would require German Chancellor Olaf Scholz to potentially agree to replace his country’s own legal system. Whether the new German leader has the political capacity to do so is unclear, as is the kind of Russian concession Berlin might require.
A senior Biden administration official said Thursday night that there is acknowledgment in the White House that the United States needs to make available “something more, something different” than what they have offered the Russians thus far, Trends Wide reported.
While Biden is coming under fire from some political opponents in Washington for making a bad deal, administration officials insisted he got the best offer.
“I want to be very clear: This was not a situation where we had a choice of which American to take home. It was a choice between bringing home one particular American, Brittney Griner, or bringing no one home,” a senior administration official told reporters on Thursday.
Evelyn Farkas, a former deputy assistant secretary of defense, told Trends Wide she thought Putin would never hand over Whelan and all along he just wanted to trade Griner for Bout.
“It is happening now because Vladimir Putin wants this to happen now, he needs a victory, he needs a victory in Russia because he has trouble convincing the people of Russia that it is a good idea to be at war with Ukraine,” Farkas said. .
He added that there was some hope left for Whelan because Griner’s exchange showed that “the Russians will make a deal if they think it’s in their interest.”
Whelan is not the only American jailed in Russia. The family of American professor Marc Fogel, who is serving a 14-year sentence in a forced labor camp, has also asked the White House to negotiate his release. Fogel was arrested last year in Moscow after traveling to the country with cannabis that his lawyer said was used for medical purposes.
A political controversy erupts over the release of Brittney Griner
The fierce political divisions that now challenge all US foreign policy decisions soon erupted after Brittney Griner was released, along with a crueller reaction on social media when some conservatives questioned her patriotism.
Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, the top Republican on the Senate Intelligence Committee, said he was relieved that Griner was free, but raised questions about the wisdom of such exchanges and whether they could endanger other Americans.
“I think the challenge that this points to is that these regimes know this. That is why [el presidente Nicolás] Maduro exchanged five Citgo executives, who were lured to Venezuela for arrest, for their nephews who are convicted drug traffickers,” Rubio said.
“That’s why you trade a professional basketball player carrying CBD oil for the Merchant of Death. These are bad trades,” Rubio said.
Another Republican, Rep. Mike Waltz of Florida, described the deal to release Griner in a Twitter post as “disgraceful” and accused the Biden administration of “prioritizing a celebrity over a veteran.”
In a later interview with Trends Wide’s Jake Tapper, Waltz said: “This is a tactical win, I’m glad he’s coming home. But this is a strategic loss.”
“The reason the Iranian regime, the Taliban and Putin himself keep taking Americans hostage is that we keep making concessions. When do we start dictating the terms to these regimes?
The Whelan family reacted with great dignity in welcoming Griner’s release, despite their devastation that his brother did not return home. Elizabeth Whelan, Paul’s sister, called for political unity on the fate of hostages abroad, saying hostile foreign countries are trying to use such cases to spark dissent in the US.
Whelan also urged people to understand the human angle of the Biden dilemma despite the serious geopolitical issues at stake.
“It’s amazing to be able to get Brittney back. It is a victory for us,” she said.
“We tend to always look at what Russia is getting out of this. […] We are welcoming a wrongfully detained American back home. It’s something to celebrate.”
