Another Oscars MISFIRE: Hollywood set to reward little-seen cinema, when crowds want Tom Cruise

The organizers of the Oscars want this weekend’s gala to have more mainstream appeal and draw a crowd, after watching viewer numbers tumble this past decade.

To that end, more box-office smashes like Top Gun: Maverick have been nominated in the best picture category of the 95th Academy Awards than has been the case in recent years.

Still, that does not mean the producers of a fan favorite will grace the stage to collect the top award at the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles on Sunday night.

A DailyMail.com analysis shows a gulf between the hit movies that crowds adore, and the little-seen films that bookmakers predict will come out of the envelope at the end of the night.

We compared a recent YouGov survey of some 2,000 US moviegoers against the favorites to win the best picture award, according to sportsbooks FanDuel and DraftKings.

Our chart shows how US popcorn-munchers remains profoundly at odds with the nearly 9,500 voting members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences

American theatergoers say Top Gun: Maverick should win the best picture at Sunday night’s Academy Awards. Pictured:  Tom Cruise reprising his role as a bad boy fighter pilot

It shows that most regular theatergoers want the top prize to go to Top Gun: Maverick, last year’s box office smash featuring Tom Cruise reprising his role as a bad boy fighter pilot.

Instead, the bookmakers say academy members will most likely select Everything Everywhere All At Once, an absurdist sci-fi indie romp about a Chinese-American immigrant family.

The same goes for second place. Real-world audiences are keen on James Cameron’s computer-generated blockbuster Avatar: The Way of Water, the most expensive movie of all time.

Instead, the bookies say the second most likely winner is The Banshees of Inisherin.

The tragicomedy, set on a remote island off the west coast of Ireland in the 1920s, barely scraped into last year’s top 100 box office earners.

The pattern continues. The bookies’ third most-likely winner, however, is the acclaimed anti-war epic All Quiet on the Western Front, a foreign language film in German and French.

Our chart shows how US popcorn-munchers remains profoundly at odds with the nearly 9,500 voting members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. 

The stark difference between the high-grossing public faves and what the academy rewards has been a growing issue in recent years.

Like other awards shows, the Oscars has steadily lost viewers, particularly among younger people who are stuck to social media.

Back in 2014, a whopping 41.7 million people tuned in to the ceremony, says media monitor Nielsen.

Last year, only 15.4 million people watched a gala that was more notable for Will Smith’s slap of Chris Rock than any of the awards that were handed out.

DailyMail.com columnist Maureen Callahan says the ‘woke’ Oscars has been overwhelmed by ‘whiny, self-indulgent’ celebrities making ‘irritating virtue signaling speeches’ that render the annual shindig obsolete.

This year’s outing will be peppered with moments suitable for spreading on Twitter and TikTok, organizers say.

A correspondent rehearses as preparations are underway for the 95th Academy Awards in the Hollywood section of Los Angeles, starting at 8pm EST on Sunday 

The candidates for this year’s best picture category include All Quiet on the Western Front and Triangle of Sadness

Bookmakers say the most likely movie to emerge as the best picture winner is Everywhere All At Once, an absurdist sci-fi indie romp about a Chinese-American immigrant family

Show producer Ricky Kirshner said there had been an effort to host a more relevant event with better-known movies, after years of mounting criticism that only boring, righteous flicks made the cut.

‘We’re there to entertain, and to highlight the great movies this year, many of which people have seen, which is great for us,’ Kirshner said this week.

The best picture winners from recent years have been bashed for being dull and overly virtuous indie picks that appeal to industry insiders but struggle to draw big crowds.

Last year’s winner, CODA, for example, offered a snapshot of life inside a deaf family.

Other recent winners include Nomadland, about a woman in her sixties living in a van, and Green Book, about a working-class bouncer driving a black pianist on a tour through the 1960s American South.

The academy’s bungling over its best picture selection was underscored in 2017.

Real-world audiences are keener on James Cameron’s computer-generated blockbuster Avatar: The Way of Water than the critics

Though less well known, All Quiet on the Western Front, a foreign language film in German and French, is popular among critics and those who have seen it 

The hit musical La La Land was erroneously announced as the winner, only for the award to go instead to Moonlight, about a young black man’s identity and sexuality.

That does not mean the academy always calls it wrong — YouGov’s survey highlighted the recent occasions when the best picture award went to movies adored by average punters.

Sadly, they are mostly in the rearview mirror.

The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King, is the most-loved best picture winner from recent years, either ‘loved’ or ‘liked’ by a staggering 92 percent of Americans.

But that was 20 years ago, in 2003. 

Other popular winners of the top category include Ridley Scott’s epic Gladiator (which won in 2001), The King’s Speech (2011) and Cameron’s liner-sinking disaster Titanic (1998).

Comedian Jimmy Kimmel, who helped navigate the 2017 mix-up when the wrong best-picture winner was announced, will be back to host this year’s ceremony. 

It will be broadcast on ABC and can be streamed with a subscription to Hulu Live TV, YouTubeTV, AT&T TV and Fubo TV.

The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King, is the most-loved best picture winner from recent years, either ‘loved’ or ‘liked’ by a staggering 92 percent of Americans. But that was 20 years ago, in 2003.