Washington- American reports indicated that several Arab countries were quietly promoting a settlement regarding the future of Gaza after the ongoing Israeli aggression, and that it had received support from Washington.
The aforementioned settlement pushes towards long-term stability in the Middle East, and its pillars are based on ending the Israeli aggression against Gaza stripAnd setting a practical framework to ensure the establishment of a Palestinian state, in exchange for expanding the scope of normalization of Arab countries, led by Saudi Arabia, with Israel.
The Financial Times and the Bloomberg website indicated that five Arab countries, namely Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, and Qatar, in addition to Egypt and Jordan, agreed on this proposal, which was discussed with Washington behind closed doors.
The Arab proposal is consistent with what US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan spoke about Davos Forum Two days ago, when he referred to 4 principles governing the vision of the US President’s administration joe biden For the future of the region after the end of the aggression on the Gaza Strip, which is based on a state for the Palestinians, security for Israel, and normalization, especially the Saudi side, in addition to preventing the Gaza Strip from becoming a platform for launching future attacks on Israel.
The US Secretary of State also focused on: Anthony BlinkenIn his speech before the Davos Forum, he stressed the opportunity for a regional solution in the Middle East “that we have not had before.”
The above raises an important question about the feasibility of these moves, which coincide with the start of a hot electoral season in the United States, which will result in Biden being preoccupied with an arduous election campaign against his likely rival. Donald TrumpIn addition to the feasibility of investing in an agreement with management that may leave White House After 10 months, Trump wins a second term.
The specter of Trump's return
With Trump sweeping the Iowa primaries, the first round of the Republican Party primary race, another round between Biden and Trump is widely expected next November.
In his speech after the announcement of the Iowa results, Trump repeated his statement that if he were in power, “Israel would never have been attacked, and the Israeli situation is very terrible. See what happened? We will solve it, we will solve it very quickly,” in reference to the Middle East peace process. .
Trump previously presented a vision known as the “Deal of the Century” in 2020, in which he acknowledged…Jerusalem capital of Israel, and called for the establishment of a Palestinian state similar in size to the pre-1967 area in West Bank And the Gaza Strip. Trump succeeded in pushing the path of normalization between Israel and four Arab countries: Bahrain, the Emirates, Sudan, and Morocco.
Trump is ahead of Biden in most opinion polls in recent months, which has led some commentators to question the feasibility of Arab action at this time on the one hand, and on the other hand, others have called for the necessity of accelerating the course of future arrangements in the region and finalizing them before Trump is likely to reach the White House after… Elections next November.
For his part, Ambassador David Mack, former US Assistant Secretary of State for Middle Eastern Affairs, who previously worked at his country’s consulate in Jerusalem, pointed out that “there is no doubt that Netanyahu and his partners in the right-wing coalition prefer Trump to return to the White House and Republican control of the Congress“.
In an interview with Al Jazeera Net, Ambassador Mack noted, “It takes more than just rhetoric and unconditional support from the Biden administration to get Israel to accept the practical results of the ceasefire, including the release of all hostages, and progress towards establishing a Palestinian state. Therefore, “The delay is in favor of the Israeli government at the present time. On the other hand, the Arab countries and the Palestinian Authority have strong reasons to cooperate with the Biden administration.”
Biden's desire for a diplomatic victory
The attacks of last October 7, and the subsequent Israeli aggression that has so far resulted in the fall of nearly 25,000 martyrs and the destruction of the Gaza Strip, have caused Biden’s hopes of achieving a diplomatic victory equal to, if not greater than, what Trump achieved on the path to evaporation. Arab-Israeli normalization, known as the Abraham Accords.
Charles Dunn, a former official at the White House and the US State Department and currently an expert at the Arab Institute in Washington, and lecturer at George Washington University, suggested that the Biden administration is aware of the deep damage to Israel, and acknowledges in very general terms the cost paid by the Palestinians, but it has not been particularly effective in meeting the needs. The humanity or diplomacy needed to end the war.
He said, “They are fully aware of the possibility of a broader regional conflict erupting because of October 7, and they have worked hard to avert that, but their military response and air strikes in Yemen and elsewhere increase the possibility of a more severe confrontation, rather than any success.” diplomat”.
Netanyahu and the politics of buying time
At a time when the Biden administration and the Arab countries are trying to push towards a regional settlement, these efforts face an obstacle represented by the nature of the Netanyahu government, which includes right-wing extremists who oppose any humanitarian initiatives towards the Palestinians, and it is very unlikely that they will agree to any path towards a future Palestinian state.
This means that the Arab vision for a future settlement, which American officials describe as the most logical long-term solution in the region, is out of reach at the present time as long as Prime Minister Netanyahu’s right-wing coalition remains in power.
Asal Rad, a researcher at the Eurasia Group Foundation, said in an interview with Al Jazeera Net, “Given the scale of the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, there must be a sense of urgency from all parties to address these concerns now, regardless of the US elections in November.” .
She continued, “With regard to long-term deals and decisions, such as normalization, there may be a different administration in power next year, and some parties in Israel and Arab countries may wait to see the results of the elections. But the current crisis in Gaza cannot be postponed until next year.”
For his part, Charles Dunne concluded his speech to Al Jazeera Net by saying, “The Netanyahu government is not in a rush to reach an agreement, in the hope of re-electing Trump. The Palestinians and Arabs may be more flexible, but because of the war they are also restricted in what they can concede to Israel or “United States: A major crisis usually needs to precede progress, but neither events nor leaders have yet agreed to make that seem possible at this time.”