While inflationary pressures remain strong, resulting in upward revisions to the inflation forecast, a gradual moderation is expected through the remainder of 2022 and 2023.”
International Monetary Fund
Prior to Alberto Fernández’s meeting with Kristalina Georgieva in New York, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) approved the second review of the Argentine economy at a technical level and will be analyzed in the coming weeks by the board before disbursing 3.9 billion euros. Dollars. Sergio Massa negotiated with the IMF a greater than expected cut in monetary assistance from the BCRA to the Treasury to calm inflation.
The Government must cancel 2,800 million dollars this week with the IMF but it managed to obtain a buffer of reserves with the soybean dollar and there is a remnant of Special Drawing Rights from previous disbursements.
The autopsy of the first half of 2022, meanwhile, brings a nod to Massa’s new measures at the head of Economy, which reinforced the fiscal adjustment: “the recent and decisive policy measures aimed at correcting previous setbacks are helping to restore confidence and strengthen macroeconomic stability, including by rebuilding international reserves.”
The evaluation highlights that the technical staff of the IMF and the Argentine authorities agreed that the objectives established in the approval of the agreement will remain unchanged until 2023, so the original goals will be maintained until the end of the year.
For the IMF, the challenge is macro stability and attacking inflation, as Georgieva assured in a recent interview.
“Most of the objectives of the quantitative program until the end of June 2022 were met, with the exception of the floor of net international reserves, mainly due to a growth in the volume of imports higher than programmed and delays in external official support”, the Fund noted.
This last point refers to the delay of the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) in disbursing 500 million dollars in the second quarter in credits to reinforce reserves. The refusal was sponsored by the head of the IDB, Mauricio Claver-Carone, who two weeks ago met with Massa and reversed his position.
“The macroeconomic framework reflects a more difficult global environment,” emphasizes the technical review by Luis Cubeddu. This includes ongoing inflationary pressures, tightening financial conditions, and slowing growth, in addition to recent domestic market pressures.
The IMF indicates that “market pressures are dissipating”. It maintains the GDP growth projection of 4% for this year and brings it to 2% for 2023, in line with the Budget project that Massa presented in Congress.
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