For much of the last decade, the Houston Astros have owned the American League West, winning the division title in six of the last seven full seasons. Their dominance appeared set to continue this year when they built a seven-game lead as recently as July 6.
Since then, however, the Astros have faltered, posting a 13-18 record with a -26 run differential. This downturn has been a team-wide issue, with the offense, starting rotation, and bullpen all performing below average. The offense is averaging just 4.16 runs per game in that span, while the bullpen ranks 19th in ERA. Compounding their problems, closer Josh Hader is sidelined with a concerning shoulder injury. While the Astros expect reinforcements from the eventual returns of injured pitchers and have recently welcomed back shortstop Jeremy Peña and designated hitter Yordan Alvarez, their recent performance has created significant questions about their ability to hold the division lead.
Capitalizing on this slump, the Seattle Mariners have surged into contention. The Mariners, who haven’t won the AL West since 2001 and are the only MLB franchise never to reach the World Series, briefly pulled into a tie for first place this week. Their success is powered by a capable offense featuring MVP candidate Cal Raleigh, a resurgent Julio Rodríguez, and key contributors like Eugenio Suárez and J.P. Crawford.
Seattle’s primary strength may be its starting rotation. Anchored by ace Luis Castillo, the group also includes Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, and Bryan Woo, presenting fewer uncertainties than Houston’s current staff. While the bullpen has faced challenges, the emergence of Matt Brash as an elite setup man and solid second-half performances from others suggest they may have found a reliable late-inning formula.
Once a strong contender, the Texas Rangers have faded from the division race after losing six of their last seven games. Now sitting 7.5 games behind, their path to an AL West title is a difficult one, though a Wild Card spot remains a possibility. The race now appears to be a two-team battle between the slumping defending champions and a surging challenger poised to end a historic drought.
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