Bets on a US recession are lowered

The probability that the United States is already in recession or falls into one this year has decreased in the last three months to 56% from a chance of almost two-thirds, according to a survey of business conditions.

Approximately 53% of those surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) said they have an above-average expectation that the United States will enter a recession in the next 12 months, while 3% think the country is already in one.

In the previous survey, published in October, 64% indicated that the economy was already in recession or was more likely to enter one in the next 12 months.

A total of 60 NABE members working for private sector companies or industry associations responded to the latest survey, conducted January 4-11.

The survey also showed that respondents expect inflation to ease in their companies and industries.

The Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point at its January 31-February 1 meeting as it nears a stalemate in its hike cycle now that inflation is on the decline.

The US central bank raised rates last year at the fastest pace since the early 1980s in an attempt to tame inflation that hit a 40-year high.