Cairo- Despite the great Egyptian movement – on more than one direction throughout the past year – in dealing with the file of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, it was not a decisive year in the course of the crisis negotiations; Egypt’s alternatives have receded in overcoming the potential negative repercussions, at a time when Ethiopia has made great strides in construction and filling operations, and the countdown to generating electricity from the dam has begun.
The year 2021 witnessed prominent stations in the dam file, including Ethiopia’s announcement of the success of the second filling, amid Egyptian skepticism and local conversations and desires to strike the dam, which were met by conflicting official statements about the damages of the water barrier to Egypt’s historical rights to the Nile waters.
While Ethiopia has been witnessing a civil war since late 2020 that has reached its climax in recent months, it is moving forward with the dam project, which prompted Cairo to announce – more than once – its rejection of the fait accompli, and to repeat its call for negotiations at a specific time, a position considered by observers. It has not faltered after Cairo has been diplomatically drained for more than 10 years since Addis Ababa began building the dam in 2011.
In this report, Al Jazeera Net monitors the most prominent stations of the Renaissance Dam file in 2021, and the questions that worry Egyptians about the future of the dam, and how Cairo will interact in this regard, and what are its alternatives in the next year?
Where did the Renaissance Dam file reach and what are its most prominent stations in 2021?
First: the path of construction, filling and operation
- At the end of 2021, the countdown to generating primary electricity from the dam began, and the installation of the ninth turbine was successfully completed, and work is underway to install the remaining turbines, as it was planned to install 16 turbines, before it was reduced to 13 to reduce costs, according to Ethiopian media.
- In November 2021, the Ethiopian government announced that the dam is expected to start producing 700 megawatts of electricity next year.
- According to Sudanese leaks that Ethiopia did not comment on last October, the third filling process is expected to begin next year, by completing construction and elevating the middle corridor.
- Last July, Ethiopia announced the successful completion of the second phase of filling the dam – which was planned with 13.5 billion cubic meters of water – and also announced the start of water exceeding the dam’s body enough to start producing energy, without declaring the volume of water stored behind it, in Against Egyptian skepticism.
- Ethiopia aspires to reach the full storage capacity of the dam lake, which is close to 74 billion cubic meters (which is close to the quotas of Egypt and Sudan, estimated at 84 billion cubic meters).
- According to an Egyptian study in which the Minister of Irrigation Mohamed Abdel-Aty participated – who heads his country’s technical delegation in the dam negotiations – there are technical and engineering defects in the construction of the dam, and the possibilities of its collapse are not excluded.
Second: the course of negotiations
- The tripartite negotiations have been suspended since last April, and Cairo and Khartoum on one side and Addis Ababa on the other are still exchanging accusations of being responsible for their failure.
- Official Egyptian assertions that the dam negotiations are frozen, and that Ethiopia’s failure to respond to the negotiations portends tension in the region, and that the basis for any negotiations is not to prejudice Egypt’s historical share.
- Last September, the Security Council adopted a presidential statement urging the resumption of negotiations under the umbrella of the African Union within a reasonable period of time. While Ethiopia considered it non-binding, Egypt and Sudan demanded serious political will for the success of the African mediation, without this having occurred so far.
- Last August, an Algerian initiative did not succeed in resolving the crisis.
- At that time, Ethiopia re-introduced a call rejected by Cairo and Khartoum, which is the speedy signing or ratification of the Framework Agreement for the Nile Basin Countries, known as the “Entebbe Agreement”, to re-partition the Nile waters.
Is the military option gone?
Although it remains a possible possibility, the military solution is expected to vanish in 2022, according to the following data:
- Cairo’s commitment to the “Declaration of Principles” agreement signed in 2015, which recognized the existence and legitimacy of the dam.
- On more than one occasion, Sisi has called on the citizens of his country to calm down, especially after the increasing talk of military action targeting the dam.
- The dam issue was completely absent from presidential and governmental discourses, and the local media’s interest in discussing the crisis declined.
- Last Sunday – in the context of inaugurating projects in the Toshka region (south) – Sisi ignored the issue of the dam despite his talk about huge water projects. He also issued directives to his government to prevent the cultivation of ornamental plants, to provide the water used in their cultivation for fruitful plants.
- Last September, Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry affirmed that his country is keen to avoid armed conflict with Ethiopia over the Nile waters.
- When Egypt moved militarily, security and diplomatically with the neighboring countries of Ethiopia, simultaneous Western warnings of any military action targeting the dam came out.
- The current US administration differs in its handling of the dam file from the administration of former US President Donald Trump, who previously paved the way for Cairo in late 2020, by publicly declaring that Egypt might use the scenario of bombing the dam.
- The political and security instability that Sudan is witnessing in the current transitional period.
- Increased chances of success of Addis Ababa in taming the tribal rebellion aimed at overthrowing the government of Abi Ahmed.
What are the Egyptian alternatives in 2022?
Despite the decline of the Egyptian alternatives and scenarios in dealing with the dam file to a large extent, many ideas in this regard are still proposed by observers, in addition to a number of official trends, including:
First, the diplomatic approach
- The Egyptian vision is still based on rejecting the fait accompli and calling for the return of negotiations with a specific time.
- Last October, El-Sisi confirmed that Egypt’s position is consistent regarding the need to reach a legal and binding agreement on filling and operating the dam, and that his country only wants to preserve its share of the Nile waters.
- Referring to his country’s entry into the stage of water poverty, Sisi stressed that Egypt does not want water to be a cause of conflict, problems or clash, but rather to be a source of development and cooperation.
- The option of exiting from the Declaration of Principles Agreement is still on the table within the corridors of Egyptian discussions, by submitting it to Parliament to reject it, and thus repudiate Ethiopia’s granting of legitimacy in building the dam.
- The former Egyptian Minister of Irrigation, Mohamed Nasr Allam, suggested that Egypt intervene to finance the remainder of the dam and establish lines for the transmission and export of electricity to be real Egyptian projects for the welfare of the Ethiopian people, and to start constructive cooperation between the countries of the region.
- Allam ruled out that there will be any serious negotiations on the dam before stability and internal settlements in Ethiopia, which may take months.
- Allam advised his country’s administration to persuade brotherly countries to stop financing Ethiopia, to overcome the effects of the dam’s heightening, which may occur after a coming period necessary to achieve internal stability, and may extend until the beginning of the next flood in mid-2022.
Second: locally
- Egypt is implementing water treatment and seawater desalination programs at a cost of more than $80 billion.
- Egypt has embarked on implementing major national projects based on the reuse of treated agricultural wastewater.
- Canals and drains lining projects to conserve water losses.