(Trends Wide) — The 2024 presidential primaries are in full swing. President Joe Biden is the overwhelming favorite for the Democratic nomination. Former President Donald Trump remains the clear favorite for the Republican nomination.
This puts many Americans in a position they don’t want to be in: a historically large proportion of them don’t like either man right now.
A Trends Wide/SSRS poll from earlier this month found that more Americans disapproved of either Biden or Trump than favored either. A plurality (36%) did not see either candidate favorably, while 33% had a favorable opinion of Trump and 32% of Biden. If we limit ourselves to registered voters, 31% did not view Biden or Trump favorably.
If we focus on those who were unfavorable towards Biden and Trump (that is, leaving out those who were unsure or neutral), 22% of adults and 21% of registered voters held an unfavorable opinion. of both men.
To put it in perspective, consider the end of the 2016 presidential election. That contest (between Trump and Democrat Hillary Clinton) is the benchmark election for candidate antipathy. It is the only one on record in which more Americans disliked both candidates than did on Election Day.
That campaign’s latest pre-election Trends Wide poll revealed that 16% of registered voters held an unfavorable opinion of both Trump and Clinton. If we add those who were neutral or had no opinion, 19% did not view either of the two candidates favorably.
If the numbers we see now in the Trends Wide polls hold up through the election, more Americans than ever will dislike the two major party presidential candidates.
The rule of sympathy
Typically, most Americans like at least one of the presidential candidates. That has been the norm for most of polling history.
Just 5% of voters said they were unfavorable to both Biden and Trump in the latest Trends Wide poll on 2020. An even smaller 3% of voters said they were unfavorable to Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney in Trends Wide’s final poll of the 2012 campaign.
It is worth noting, of course, that the 2024 election is still well over a year away. Things can change.
But frequently, they take a turn for the worse as more negative ads fly.
When you look at the polls at this point in the 2016 campaign, the current ones for 2024 are even more striking.
While Trump’s favorable rating among registered voters this month nearly matched his favorable rating in the July 2015 Trends Wide poll (34%), Clinton’s stood at 44% in the 2015 poll. it was 49%. Biden’s favorable rating in the latest Trends Wide poll was 32% among adults and 35% among registered voters. The unfavorable figure for her was 56% between both groups.
Neither Trump nor Biden is anywhere near positive territory this cycle, and we’re not talking about an outlier poll.
The average of all polls to date indicates that both men have favorable ratings below 40% and unfavorable ratings of around 50 points.
The Trends Wide poll in May showed that 23% of voters did not have a favorable opinion of either candidate. In each of the last three Quinnipiac University polls of registered voters, between 22% and 28% of the electorate did not view either candidate favorably. The mean was 24%.
The closest anyone came to scoring favorably over unfavorably was Biden in the June Quinnipiac poll. The favorable assessment of it was 42%, compared to an unfavorable of 54%.
What will happen if Biden and Trump continue to be so unpopular? Perhaps primary voters decide to nominate someone else for president. But Biden does not have a primary competitor with a favorable rating as close to his own among Democrats. Trump’s most notable opponent at the moment, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, also has a net unfavorable rating among the general electorate.
If Biden and Trump enter the general election with such a low rating, it could open the door for a third-party candidate. In 1992, Ross Perot’s independent run for the White House garnered strong support early in that election cycle, as both Democratic challenger Bill Clinton and Republican George HW Bush had low popularity ratings.
(Bill Clinton’s 1992 ratings improved after he won his party’s nomination.)
Similarly, the low favorable ratings for Hillary Clinton and Trump in 2016 allowed the cumulative share of votes outside the two major parties to eclipse 5% for the only time in the past 25 years.
The bottom line is that there may be repercussions if both parties field such unpopular candidates. Many voters may not be willing to settle for a major party candidate they don’t like.
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(Trends Wide) — The 2024 presidential primaries are in full swing. President Joe Biden is the overwhelming favorite for the Democratic nomination. Former President Donald Trump remains the clear favorite for the Republican nomination.
This puts many Americans in a position they don’t want to be in: a historically large proportion of them don’t like either man right now.
A Trends Wide/SSRS poll from earlier this month found that more Americans disapproved of either Biden or Trump than favored either. A plurality (36%) did not see either candidate favorably, while 33% had a favorable opinion of Trump and 32% of Biden. If we limit ourselves to registered voters, 31% did not view Biden or Trump favorably.
If we focus on those who were unfavorable towards Biden and Trump (that is, leaving out those who were unsure or neutral), 22% of adults and 21% of registered voters held an unfavorable opinion. of both men.
To put it in perspective, consider the end of the 2016 presidential election. That contest (between Trump and Democrat Hillary Clinton) is the benchmark election for candidate antipathy. It is the only one on record in which more Americans disliked both candidates than did on Election Day.
That campaign’s latest pre-election Trends Wide poll revealed that 16% of registered voters held an unfavorable opinion of both Trump and Clinton. If we add those who were neutral or had no opinion, 19% did not view either of the two candidates favorably.
If the numbers we see now in the Trends Wide polls hold up through the election, more Americans than ever will dislike the two major party presidential candidates.
The rule of sympathy
Typically, most Americans like at least one of the presidential candidates. That has been the norm for most of polling history.
Just 5% of voters said they were unfavorable to both Biden and Trump in the latest Trends Wide poll on 2020. An even smaller 3% of voters said they were unfavorable to Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney in Trends Wide’s final poll of the 2012 campaign.
It is worth noting, of course, that the 2024 election is still well over a year away. Things can change.
But frequently, they take a turn for the worse as more negative ads fly.
When you look at the polls at this point in the 2016 campaign, the current ones for 2024 are even more striking.
While Trump’s favorable rating among registered voters this month nearly matched his favorable rating in the July 2015 Trends Wide poll (34%), Clinton’s stood at 44% in the 2015 poll. it was 49%. Biden’s favorable rating in the latest Trends Wide poll was 32% among adults and 35% among registered voters. The unfavorable figure for her was 56% between both groups.
Neither Trump nor Biden is anywhere near positive territory this cycle, and we’re not talking about an outlier poll.
The average of all polls to date indicates that both men have favorable ratings below 40% and unfavorable ratings of around 50 points.
The Trends Wide poll in May showed that 23% of voters did not have a favorable opinion of either candidate. In each of the last three Quinnipiac University polls of registered voters, between 22% and 28% of the electorate did not view either candidate favorably. The mean was 24%.
The closest anyone came to scoring favorably over unfavorably was Biden in the June Quinnipiac poll. The favorable assessment of it was 42%, compared to an unfavorable of 54%.
What will happen if Biden and Trump continue to be so unpopular? Perhaps primary voters decide to nominate someone else for president. But Biden does not have a primary competitor with a favorable rating as close to his own among Democrats. Trump’s most notable opponent at the moment, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, also has a net unfavorable rating among the general electorate.
If Biden and Trump enter the general election with such a low rating, it could open the door for a third-party candidate. In 1992, Ross Perot’s independent run for the White House garnered strong support early in that election cycle, as both Democratic challenger Bill Clinton and Republican George HW Bush had low popularity ratings.
(Bill Clinton’s 1992 ratings improved after he won his party’s nomination.)
Similarly, the low favorable ratings for Hillary Clinton and Trump in 2016 allowed the cumulative share of votes outside the two major parties to eclipse 5% for the only time in the past 25 years.
The bottom line is that there may be repercussions if both parties field such unpopular candidates. Many voters may not be willing to settle for a major party candidate they don’t like.
