With just four weeks remaining in the WNBA regular season, some outcomes feel certain. The Minnesota Lynx appear locked in as the top seed for the playoffs, and Napheesa Collier remains the clear favorite for MVP. However, much of the postseason picture is still taking shape.
Early-season predictions that once seemed bold, like the expansion Golden State Valkyries making the playoffs, now look increasingly plausible. At the same time, the unforgiving nature of a 44-game schedule has introduced new variables. Injuries and player movement have forced teams to adapt, making roster cohesion and health the primary goals heading into the final stretch. For some teams, simply securing a playoff berth will be a measure of success. As the season nears its climax, several compelling storylines are set to unfold.
### Atlanta Will Finish Ahead of New York for the No. 2 Seed
For most of the season, the reigning champion New York Liberty were widely considered one of the league’s top two teams. That status is now in jeopardy. Following a win over the Seattle Storm on Wednesday, combined with a Liberty loss to the Las Vegas Aces, the Atlanta Dream moved a half-game ahead of New York in the standings.
While the Liberty hold a 2-1 season series advantage, the teams will meet again in Atlanta in 10 days. Compounding the challenge for New York is its remaining schedule, ranked the eighth-most difficult in the league, which includes two games against Minnesota. The team is also awaiting the return of Breanna Stewart from a bone bruise.
Conversely, Atlanta has the league’s easiest remaining schedule and is hitting its stride at the perfect time. With Brittney Griner and Rhyne Howard recently returning to the lineup, the Dream have won six consecutive games and are 8-2 in their last 10 contests. This momentum gives them a strong chance to overtake the Liberty and secure the coveted No. 2 seed.
### Top Rookies from 2024 Face Uncertain Return
The WNBA’s top two rookies from last season, Caitlin Clark and Angel Reese, are currently sidelined with groin and back injuries, respectively. With no timetable for their return, both the Indiana Fever and Chicago Sky face the possibility of finishing the season without their young stars. While both players are undoubtedly eager to get back on the court, their situations differ significantly.
For Reese, who last played on July 29, the incentive to rush back is low. The Sky, holding an 8-24 record, are out of playoff contention, and prioritizing her long-term health is the most prudent course of action.
The Fever, however, are positioned to make the playoffs for the second consecutive year. While a deep postseason run seems unlikely even with a healthy roster, Clark’s return would significantly boost their chances of winning a first-round series. If she is medically cleared, her presence could provide a critical spark for Indiana.
### The Storm Will Make the Playoffs
A recent six-game losing streak has dropped the Seattle Storm, once 16-11, into the eighth and final playoff spot, just a half-game ahead of the surging Los Angeles Sparks. Despite this slide, advanced metrics suggest Seattle remains a strong favorite to secure a postseason berth, with projections giving them an 82% chance.
The reason for this optimism lies in the details of their recent struggles. The first five losses of the streak came by four points or fewer, and the team maintains a healthy +1.7 point differential, indicating their performance level is higher than their record suggests. While past results are set, their overall talent level and a favorable schedule compared to Golden State’s—including a regular-season finale in Seattle—position the Storm to hold on to their playoff spot.
### The Sparks Deserved Multiple All-Stars
When the WNBA All-Star rosters were announced, the Los Angeles Sparks were represented by a single player: leading scorer Kelsey Plum. However, strong cases could have been made for forward Dearica Hamby and center Azurá Stevens, who averaged 14.5 points and 8.4 rebounds while shooting 42% from three-point range.
The primary argument against multiple selections was the team’s 6-13 record at the time. That record, however, was a direct result of significant injuries that depleted their depth at key positions. Since returning to health, the Sparks have been one of the league’s elite teams, posting a 10-4 record since early July and boasting the WNBA’s top-rated offense during that span. Los Angeles’s dramatic turnaround serves as a reminder that relying on team record alone can be a flawed metric for evaluating individual excellence.
### The Wings Will Play Spoiler in the Playoff Race
At 9-24, the Dallas Wings are too far back to make a legitimate run for the postseason. However, they are perfectly positioned to influence which teams do. With three games remaining against the Los Angeles Sparks, two against the Golden State Valkyries, and one against the Seattle Storm, Dallas will have a direct impact on the tight race for the final playoff spots.
Despite a recent slump, the Wings demonstrated their potential in an 81-80 road victory over Indiana. Maddy Siegrist tied a career high with 22 points, Li Yueru added 20, and rookie standout Paige Bueckers contributed 16 points and 8 assists. If Dallas can replicate that level of performance, they will be a formidable obstacle for every bubble team left on their schedule.
### No Head Coaches Will Be Fired This Season
After seven franchises changed head coaches in the last offseason, a period of stability may be on the horizon. Currently, five teams with new coaches are outside the playoff picture, but it is unlikely any will be dismissed after just one year.
Even in situations drawing public scrutiny, change seems improbable. In Dallas, despite online criticism of first-year coach Chris Koclanes, his long-standing connection with first-year general manager Curt Miller suggests he will be given more time. The only potential exception might be Seattle’s Noelle Quinn if the Storm miss the playoffs, but even that is not a certainty. With expansion teams in Portland and Toronto set to hire their own coaches, the league’s coaching ranks are more likely to grow than to shrink.
### The First Playoff Round Should Be a Best-of-Five Series
The WNBA is expanding its Finals to a best-of-seven series this year, and that spirit of expansion should extend to the opening round of the playoffs. The current best-of-three format is too brief a sample size and should be replaced with a best-of-five series, matching the semifinals.
This change would enhance the competitive integrity of the playoffs, allowing more time for strategic adjustments and reducing the chance that an upset is determined by a single off night. Furthermore, it would improve logistics. The current 1-1-1 hosting format can force teams into a cross-country flight for a single game. A 2-2-1 format, common in best-of-five series, would allow for longer stays in each city, reducing travel fatigue. As the WNBA continues to grow, its postseason structure should evolve with it.
### Cathy Engelbert Is Succeeding as WNBA Commissioner
While WNBA Commissioner Cathy Engelbert often faces online criticism, an objective look at her tenure reveals a period of remarkable success. From a business perspective, the league has never been in a stronger position.
Since taking over in 2019, Engelbert has overseen a series of transformative achievements: negotiating the landmark 2020 collective bargaining agreement, navigating the 2020 season in the COVID-19 bubble, launching the Commissioner’s Cup, implementing full-time charter flights, expanding the WNBA Finals to a best-of-seven series, and guiding expansion that will bring the league to 18 teams.
While the unprecedented popularity of stars like Caitlin Clark has been a massive catalyst for growth, Engelbert’s leadership has provided the steady hand needed to capitalize on that momentum. Challenges remain, particularly with a new CBA on the horizon, but her tenure has been defined by strategic vision and substantial progress.
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