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It’s less than five weeks until the first big opening of 2025, that being Disney/Marvel Studios‘ Captain America: Brave New World, which hit tracking service Quorum and is expected to do $86 million-$95 million over the first three days of the four-day Valentine’s Day/Presidents Day weekend beginning February 14. The Friday-Monday figure is also bound to be $100M+ at this point in time.
The projection takes into account the change-up in cast in the Captain America franchise, and the overall reset of the franchise. The next installment is a grounded title ala 2014’s Captain America: Winter Soldier, which opened to $95M over three days on April 4-6.
On Quorum, Captain America: Brave New World has the most awareness of movies opening in the next month at 58 higher than Universal’s Wolf Man (44, opening January 17), Lionsgate’s Flight Risk (37, January 24) and StudioCanal/Sony’s Paddington in Peru (36, also opening over the Presidents Day stretch). Captain America: Brave New World is strongest with men, of course, with women under 35 not that far behind men over 35 in awareness.
In regards to those who would pay to see Captain America: Brave New World versus stream at home, that number is very high compared with the incoming lineup of titles at 67, versus Wolf Man (57), Flight Risk (57), New Line’s horror movie Companion (37) and Paddington in Peru (45).
The movie, directed and co-written by Julius Onah, takes place after the events of the Marvel Studios’/Disney+ series The Falcon and the Winter Solider, when Sam Wilson picks up the shield left behind by Steve Rogers. That series was a big success on the streamer, unlike Ms. Marvel, and the hope is the fan love from that will carry over into the opening weekend on Brave New World.
Among four-day opening records for Presidents Day weekend, Marvel Studios owns the top three with 2018’s Black Panther ($242.1M), Deadpool ($152.1M) and Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania ($120.3M). Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania posted a three-day total of $106.1M, Deadpool‘s was $132.4M, while Black Panther‘s was $202M.
Quorum correctly projected six weeks out that Disney/Marvel’s Deadpool & Wolverine would notch a $200M+ opening weekend, while rival tracking services were more conservative.
