Caintra Nuevo León revises state GDP and manufacturing production downwards in 2023

The Chamber of the Transformation Industry (Caintra) from Nuevo Leon revised downward the estimate of state GDP growth this year, from 2.83%, which is the forecast for this year, to 1.48% for 2023.

On the other hand, the closing forecast for 2022 of the manufacturing production in 2022 it is 4.60%, which would have a slowdown to end this year at 2.40%, while employment in state manufacturing has a forecast of 26,015 jobs and 22,676 formal jobs this year at the end of last year.

“From different areas, it is noted that this year brings relevant challenges for the state. There are indicators that have begun to show signs of weakening, for this reason, from Caintra we call to strengthen the industry of Nuevo León as the main pillar and source of sustenance of the families of Neolon, highlighted Guillermo Dillon Montaña, general director of the organization.

Among the external pressures affecting the local economy, the most important is the potential recession of USA which is anticipated for the start of this year and which will impact the industry, since 93% of exports go to that country and represent 39% of state GDP.

On the other hand, at small and medium businesses (SMEs), which are the axis of the industry in Nuevo León, are affected by the context of high inflation, which closed last year at levels not seen in decades, with 7.8% as well as a restrictive interest rate of 10.5 percent. .

“Given the risks of deceleration, the banks raise their antennas and the appetite for credit is reduced,” therefore, financing options must be opened for these companies, he said.

Two other indicators that have begun to decline are exports, which fell -5.8% in October and November, due to lower foreign demand, as well as investment in the country fell -0.9% in September, due to a drop in the business confidence of -19.2% in December at an annual rate.

“However, we expect the weakening to attenuate at the end of 2023, after a rebound in the last quarter. With this, economic activity would have an advance in state GDP of 1.5% this year and growth in manufacturing activity of 2.40%” , estimated the director of Caintra Nuevo León.

kg