Campeche, Coahuila and CDMX, in a recessive phase

At the end of the first half of 2022, three state economies continued in recession: Campeche, Coahuila and Mexico City.

Although the focus of attention is focused on the country’s capital, since it is the largest economy in the national territory.

According to seasonally adjusted data from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI), only five entities registered annual falls in their Quarterly Indicator of State Economic Activity (ITAEE) in the second quarter of the year.

The five entities with decreases in the indicator that is an approximation of the GDP, were Campeche, Coahuila, Mexico City, Yucatán and Veracruz, but three continued in a recessive stage.

The greatest contraction occurred in Campeche, with a drop of 6.6% per year, which meant its worst result in a year and a half and its third consecutive decline, ratifying the recessionary phase it is experiencing.

The dynamics of Campeche is contrary to that of Tabasco, the state with the highest economic growth. The main vocation of both entities is the oil industry, however, the federal government only opted for the state of Tabasco to seek energy sovereignty with the Dos Bocas refinery.

The foregoing is reflected in the 9.8% drop suffered by the mining sector of Campeche in the second quarter of the year, which is added to the 4.0% decrease in primary activities and 4.5% in generation, transmission and distribution of electrical energy, supply of water and gas through pipelines to the final consumer.

Although construction grew 15.8%, derived mainly from the works of the Mayan Train, consumption showed strength (1.9% in commerce and 2.8% in services) and manufacturing is a trigger with an increase of 8.6%, they were not enough factors to offset the collapse of the ITAEE.

broken foundation

Coahuila ranked as the second state with the most pronounced decrease in its economic activity, of 2.9%, which, like Campeche, was its worst level in a year and a half.

In addition, it has been contracting for three quarters, remaining in a recessive stage.

Coahuila’s Achilles heels were mining (-0.5%), construction (-20.0%) and services (-7.8%). It is observed that the lack of large federal projects reduced a key sector, construction.

However, the greatest concern is Mexico City, as it is the economic engine of the country, which with its 2.0% annual drop in the ITAEE, marked three quarters with contractions, reaffirming that it is in a recessive phase.

Two key sectors fell in the capital. Services fell 4.8%, showing that there is still a hangover in households due to the Covid-19 pandemic and high inflation levels.

While the construction industry collapsed 2.5% annually, despite being the axis of the reactivation plan of the government of Mexico City.

Leader

Tabasco positioned itself at the other extreme, being the first place in growth of the ITAEE with an annual rate of 13.5% in the period April-June of the current year.

With this increase, it extended its streak to five consecutive quarters with double-digit increases, particularly supported by the Dos Bocas refinery and the Mayan Train.

All the economic sectors of Tabasco presented increases, highlighting construction (36.6%) and mining (19.0%).

Queretaro economy grows 3.7% in the first half of the year

Queretaro, Qro. The state economy grew 3.7% at an annual rate in the first half of 2022, an advance that was strengthened by the performance of economic activity in the second quarter of the year, reports the Quarterly Indicator of State Economic Activity (ITAEE) of the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi).

While in the first quarter of the year the state economy advanced 2.2%, in the second period it grew 5.2%, accumulating two consecutive quarters with increases, prior to the 0.5% decrease in the fourth quarter of 2021.

The performance of the local economy in the first semester was mainly supported by tertiary activities that contributed 2 percentage points, while secondary activities contributed 1.7 points.

For the first half of the year, primary activities finally achieved a positive variation of 0.5%, accumulated from the decline of 1.8% in the first quarter and the advance of 2.5% in the second.

Secondary activities reported the highest annual growth, 4.2% in the January-June period, derived from an advance of 2.4% in the first quarter and 6.1% in the second.

In tertiary activities, growth was 3.5% in the first half of 2022, after growth of 2.3% in the first quarter and 4.7% later.

However, only in the second quarter of 2022, when the state economy grew 5.2%, tertiary activities contributed 2.8 percentage points, secondary 2.4 and primary 0.1 points.

During the second quarter of the year, primary activities -which include agriculture, animal husbandry and exploitation, forestry, fishing and hunting- registered an advance of 2.5%, which was mainly driven by animal husbandry. and exploitation of animals and by agriculture.

The state was placed in position 13 nationally, slightly above the annual variation that was 1.4 percent.

Secondary activities, which include mining, manufacturing, construction and electricity, increased 6.1% per year, placing the state in ninth place, above the national growth of around 3.3% per year.

In tertiary activities, in the second quarter, Querétaro registered a rebound of 4.7%, ranking seventh nationally and exceeding the national average of 1.2 percent. These activities include the sectors of distribution of goods and activities related to operations with information or assets, as well as services whose main input is the knowledge and experience of personnel. They also include those related to recreation and government, among others.

The result of the state economy in the second quarter of the year, of 5.2%, placed it in ninth place nationally, contributing 0.12 percentage points to the national variation. (Vivian Star)

estados@eleconomista.mx