Aurora enthusiasts may have one final opportunity to view the northern lights on the evening of October 2, following several nights of unexpectedly intense geomagnetic activity. Forecasters anticipate that conditions will become less favorable for auroras over the weekend.
The recent activity peaked with a strong G3 geomagnetic storm that produced auroras visible as far south as New York on October 1. According to NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), high-speed solar wind continues to interact with Earth’s magnetic field, prompting a G2 (moderate) geomagnetic storm watch for tonight. The SWPC noted that G3 conditions were observed early on October 2, with minor to moderate storm levels likely to continue.
Viewing Forecast and Locations for October 2
NOAA’s latest forecast indicates that geomagnetic activity may reach G1 (minor) levels for much of October 2, with a potential peak at G2 (moderate) intensity. While the strongest activity is predicted during daylight hours for North America, elevated conditions are expected to persist into the evening, providing a strong possibility for sightings after dark.
Should G2 conditions occur, the aurora could be visible across a large portion of the northern United States, weather permitting. Based on NOAA’s aurora oval forecast, the following states have the highest probability of a sighting:
- Alaska
- Washington
- Idaho
- Montana
- North Dakota
- South Dakota
- Minnesota
- Wisconsin
- Michigan
- New York
- Wyoming
- Maine
The unpredictable nature of auroras means that if the storm intensifies to G2 or G3 levels, as it has on previous nights, the viewing area could expand. This might include states such as Vermont, and potentially northern parts of Pennsylvania, Iowa, and Oregon.
Weekend Aurora Outlook
This event is expected to be the last significant display from the current space weather system. Forecasters at both NOAA and the U.K. Met Office predict that geomagnetic conditions will gradually calm after October 2 as the high-speed solar wind stream subsides. While some minor activity may persist into October 3, the likelihood of strong geomagnetic storms will decrease significantly.
Tips for Aurora Viewing
For those in potential viewing areas, the following tips may increase the chances of seeing the display:
- Seek a location away from city light pollution.
- Find an observation point with an unobstructed view to the north.
- Optimal viewing times are typically between midnight and 2 a.m. local time, though activity can occur as soon as it is dark.
- Be patient, as auroras often appear in intermittent bursts.
To track viewing opportunities in real-time, consider using a dedicated space weather or aurora forecast app, which can provide location-based alerts and data on current conditions.
Cause of the Geomagnetic Activity
The current auroral activity is caused by a high-speed stream of solar wind emanating from a coronal hole on the sun. This stream is striking Earth at over 1.8 million mph (800 km/s), disturbing the planet’s magnetic field. The effect is amplified by the Russell-McPherson Effect, a phenomenon where Earth’s magnetic field is more receptive to solar disturbances around the spring and fall equinoxes. NOAA reports that the solar wind’s magnetic field is frequently pointing southward, a key condition for triggering strong geomagnetic storms and vibrant auroras.
