The expansion to a 12-team College Football Playoff has widened the field of contenders, making every conference race more significant. With the five highest-ranked conference champions guaranteed a spot, the path to the postseason is now open to a broader range of teams. As September concludes, these conference races are just beginning to intensify.
Below is an analysis of each Power 4 conference, highlighting one team in the spotlight and another considered an enigma. Teams are tiered into three categories based on a projection of how the selection committee would view them today.
Would be in: Teams projected to be in the top 12.
Work to do: Teams passing the eye test and contending for a conference title, which secures an automatic playoff berth.
Would be out: Teams currently on the outside looking in.
These classifications are based on on-field performance and historical committee tendencies, which may differ from algorithmic predictions. The landscape will shift weekly as teams build their résumés.
SEC
Spotlight: Ole Miss
After a 4-0 start that includes SEC victories over Kentucky and Arkansas and a dominant 45-10 win against a talented Tulane team, the Rebels have made a strong case for the top 12. Ole Miss ranks No. 7 in ESPN’s strength of record metric, indicating the difficulty of their achievements so far. The team’s true test arrives Saturday against LSU. A victory would likely position the Rebels as undefeated entering consecutive road games against Georgia and Oklahoma. If Ole Miss can emerge from that three-game stretch with at least two wins, a playoff berth would be almost certain. ESPN’s FPI gives the Rebels a 67% chance to make the playoff.
The Enigma: Texas
The Longhorns fell out of the projected top 12 this week, largely due to Texas Tech’s emergence. While still a playoff-caliber team, Texas has yet to prove it with wins over San Jose State, UTEP, and Sam Houston. The upcoming SEC opener at Florida on Oct. 4 is a pivotal game the Longhorns should win if they are serious contenders. A victory won’t dramatically alter their national perception, but a loss would be revealing. The selection committee will likely gain a clearer picture of Texas on Oct. 11 when they face rival Oklahoma, a team currently in the projected top 12.
If the playoff were today:
- Would be in: Georgia, LSU, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas A&M
- Work to do: Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi State, Missouri, Ole Miss, Texas, Vanderbilt
- Would be out: Arkansas, Florida, Kentucky, South Carolina
Big Ten
Spotlight: Indiana
No team improved its postseason outlook more this week than Indiana, whose playoff probability jumped 28 percentage points to 57%, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor. The Hoosiers’ commanding victory over Illinois propelled them to No. 11 in the latest projection. However, that position could be precarious. If Memphis wins the American Athletic Conference but finishes outside the top 12, rules require the committee to include the fifth-highest-ranked conference champion, potentially bumping the No. 11 team. If the Hoosiers continue to win convincingly, they will likely climb into the top 10 and secure their position. Their path is challenging, with road games at Oregon and Penn State.
The Enigma: Michigan
The Wolverines’ identity remains a work in progress as freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood continues to develop. After a Week 2 loss at Oklahoma, Michigan has rebounded with key wins, including one on the road at Nebraska. The defense has been above average, and the schedule is favorable, avoiding both Penn State and Oregon. Michigan’s toughest remaining games are at USC on Oct. 11 and the regular-season finale against rival Ohio State. Splitting these two games would likely be necessary to avoid a third loss. If the Wolverines finish with two losses, the committee would give them strong consideration, but their inclusion would depend on the résumés of other two-loss teams.
If the playoff were today:
- Would be in: Ohio State, Oregon, Penn State
- Work to do: Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Nebraska, USC, Maryland, Washington
- Would be out: Iowa, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, Wisconsin
ACC
Spotlight: Georgia Tech
According to ESPN Analytics, the Yellow Jackets have the third-best chance (12.2%) to reach the ACC title game, behind Florida State and Miami. Critically, Georgia Tech does not play either of those teams during the regular season, giving them a clear path to the finale against rival Georgia. Last year’s contest went to eight overtimes, proving they can compete. If the Jackets enter the ACC Championship with only a close loss to Georgia, they would have a compelling case. An ACC title would guarantee a spot, but even a loss could keep them in contention. The committee would face a difficult decision regarding a two-loss ACC runner-up whose only defeats came against two conference champions.
The Enigma: Syracuse
After a road victory over Clemson with a backup quarterback, questions surround Syracuse’s legitimacy as a contender. Their only loss was to a projected top-12 Tennessee team, but their wins have been unconvincing, including an overtime victory against UConn. The schedule intensifies with games against Georgia Tech and back-to-back November road trips to Miami and Notre Dame. To continue winning, the Orange will rely on LSU transfer Rickie Collins at quarterback. ESPN’s FPI gives Syracuse less than a 50% chance to win each of those marquee matchups.
If the playoff were today:
- Would be in: Florida State, Miami
- Work to do: Cal, Georgia Tech, Louisville, NC State, Pitt, Syracuse, Virginia, Wake Forest
- Would be out: Boston College, Clemson, Duke, North Carolina, SMU, Stanford, Virginia Tech
Big 12
Spotlight: Iowa State
The Cyclones remain undefeated at 4-0, but Texas Tech has surpassed them as the Big 12 favorite following a win at Utah. The Red Raiders now have the best odds to win the conference (28.6%), while Iowa State’s chances have dropped to 13%. The Cyclones’ best victory is against rival Iowa, as their season-opening win over Kansas State has lost its luster due to the Wildcats’ 1-3 start. After a bye week, Iowa State faces a challenging home game against Arizona. The season’s defining stretch begins Oct. 25 against BYU, followed by games against Arizona State and a road trip to TCU.
The Enigma: TCU
The Horned Frogs’ true strength is difficult to gauge. Their season-opening win at North Carolina was overshadowed by the narrative of Bill Belichick’s first loss as a college coach. A 35-24 victory over a quality SMU team was more impressive and marked the end of the historic rivalry. Coach Sonny Dykes has guided this program to the playoff before, and the Allstate Playoff Predictor gives TCU the third-best chance in the Big 12 to return (17.6%). However, if the Horned Frogs finish with two losses and without a conference title, they will face a tough debate against other at-large contenders.
If the playoff were today:
- Would be in: Texas Tech
- Work to do: Arizona, Arizona State, BYU, Cincinnati, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, TCU, UCF, Utah
- Would be out: Baylor, Kansas State, West Virginia, Oklahoma State, Colorado
Independent
Would be out: Notre Dame
The Irish secured their first victory with a 56-30 win over Purdue, a necessary step after an 0-2 start. Now, they must win out to have a chance. Even a 10-2 finish does not guarantee an at-large bid, as their fate would depend on the number and quality of other 10-2 teams. However, if Notre Dame does finish with two losses, they will likely be two of the most respectable losses of any team in the country, strengthening their case with the committee.
Group of 5
Spotlight: Memphis
Following a dramatic 32-31 comeback victory over Arkansas, the Tigers have emerged as the top Group of 5 contender. Memphis erased an 18-point deficit to secure its fourth consecutive home win against an SEC opponent. The Allstate Playoff Predictor gives Memphis a 36% chance to reach the playoff, the highest among G5 schools. The American Athletic Conference has a 73% chance of sending a team to the CFP, with Memphis, North Texas, South Florida, and Tulane all possessing at least a 5% chance.
The Enigma: North Texas
The undefeated Mean Green have built a solid résumé with wins over Washington State and Army. Although they needed overtime for road victories against Army and Western Michigan, they dismantled Washington State 59-10. Their remaining schedule lacks a ranked opponent, but tough matchups against South Florida and Navy await. According to ESPN Analytics, North Texas has the second-best chance to win the American (21.5%), behind Memphis (42.7%). The two teams do not face each other during the regular season.
If the playoff were today:
- Would be in: Memphis
- Work to do: Navy, North Texas, South Florida, Tulane, UNLV
Projected Playoff Bracket
Based on this week’s projections, the bracket would be seeded as follows:
First-Round Byes
- Miami
- Ohio State
- Georgia
- Florida State
First-Round Matchups (Dec. 19-20 on campus)
- No. 12 Memphis at No. 5 LSU
- No. 11 Texas Tech at No. 6 Texas A&M
- No. 10 Tennessee at No. 7 Oklahoma
- No. 9 Penn State at No. 8 Oregon
Quarterfinal Matchups (Dec. 31-Jan. 1)
- Winner of Memphis/LSU vs. No. 4 Florida State
- Winner of Texas Tech/Texas A&M vs. No. 3 Georgia
- Winner of Tennessee/Oklahoma vs. No. 2 Ohio State
- Winner of Penn State/Oregon vs. No. 1 Miami
