Cycle closures only work when you learn something from what you have lived, otherwise, it is just an excuse to forget things… – Macraf –
A few days before the end of an interesting year in the economic history of our country, it comes to mind that the prospects for this year were not very encouraging, no situation was in sight that could improve the economic situation and, on the contrary, it I saw a difficult year in terms of growth and development, the reality is that we are ending a little better than expected.
2022 was a surprising year in economic terms, halfway through the year, an important dynamic was experienced that allowed us to close the year with a growth rate close to 3.0%, which can be taken as good news, without However, it must be remembered that to achieve this scenario, Banco de México had to establish a monetary policy that has led us to a reference rate of 10.5%, the highest level in the last 20 years, despite this and, According to INEGI, inflation at the close of the first fortnight of December 2022 in Mexico had an increase of 0.39% compared to the previous fortnight, placing annual inflation at 7.77% within which, the underlying component registered an annual increase of 8.35%, while on the non-core side, an annual increase of 6.08% was registered, this means that the pressures continue in the market.
Considering the above, it is expected that during 2023, a monetary policy related to the increase in reference rates will continue, seeking at all times to control price levels, although said rate movements are expected to be less than those observed in recent months, even consider the possibility that by the second half of 2023, the reduction of interest rates will begin worldwide.
The foregoing maintains the idea that next year will be complicated, especially in terms of personal finances, therefore, I would like to make a recommendation, my dear reader, for the coming months: carry out a detailed analysis of all the financial liabilities that have, that is, everything related to mortgage loans, automobile loans, personal loans, credit card balances and any other instrument that generates a financial cost, which is nothing more than interest payments. This review will allow you to prevent financial disasters in the following months, since it is possible that there will still be increases in interest rates and, therefore, the cost of these instruments will become more expensive, therefore, if you have some liquidity At the end of the year, I recommend using it to reduce as many of these liabilities as possible, to prevent the famous January slope from becoming a big headache for both you and the rest of your family.
On the business side, in addition to being careful with credit levels, they must maintain constant monitoring of the global environment, given that there are certain situations that will continue to exert pressure on price levels throughout the world, such as, for example, the war between Ukraine and Russia (directly affects the price of energy and grains) and of course, the situation in China not only in relation to the control of COVID, but also possible mobilizations to regain control over Taiwan .
As a good Christian, we must be careful with the start of 2023, both in economic and geopolitical terms, without losing sight of the fact that within our country, there are situations that should be the subject of analysis and discussion, such as the situation of post-pandemic education, the totally useless health system, the lack of medicines and above all, the high levels of insecurity, issues that we must not allow to be overshadowed by the electoral contest in Coahuila and the State of Mexico.
Finally, I want to thank you for having accompanied me in this space during 2022. I am sure that the year that is about to begin will bring us many opportunities for reflection and analysis to share, meanwhile, all that remains is to wish you a great closing of the year.
*The author is an academic at the School of Government and Economics of the Universidad Panamericana, speaker, expert consultant on economic, financial and government issues, founding director of the site El Comentario del Día and host of the program Voces Universitarias.
Contact: https://flow.page/eduardolopezchavez
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