Climate Change and COP 27, Responsibilities and Lies of Mexico

Mexico ranks tenth in the world in terms of Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions, accounting for emissions not only related to the generation and use of energy, but also those derived from agricultural activities, methane and industrial gases, waste management and deforestation. The emissions of our country are greater than those of Brazil, France, Great Britain, the United Kingdom, and Italy, for example. Mexico is home to approximately 1.7% of the global population, and coincidentally, generates a similar percentage of the total emissions on the planet. Emissions depend on the population of each country, the size and sectoral structure of its economy, its energy matrix, the distribution of income and wealth; also, of geographical particularities, and of different endowments of natural resources. The elites – or say, the top two income deciles – of all countries are responsible for perhaps more than 80% of total global emissions; and, their lifestyles and consumption patterns are more or less similar everywhere: fuel use, type of mobility and vehicles, type of housing and energy use in homes or offices, air travel, meat consumption . Therefore, they have high per capita emissions of a very similar magnitude, and equivalent climate responsibilities regardless of the nation they belong to. The poor around the world emit very little.

On the other hand, reducing emissions and combating global warming head-on is not only a moral and global survival imperative, but also a historic opportunity for investment, technological development, efficiency, competitiveness, economic growth and employment, within the framework of a true industrial revolution. not seen since the mid-19th century. The leading countries will be able to reap enormous advantages, such as the electrification of the vehicle fleet, clean energy, hydrogen, smart electrical networks, technological change in strategic industries, new foods that replace beef, zero deforestation, and forest restoration. on a large scale.

Mexico, like 200 other nations, has assumed since 2015 commitments to reduce emissions in the terms proposed by the Paris Agreement. The necessary reference established by science is a reduction in emissions of approximately 40% by 2030, with the goal of reaching 2050 with zero net emissions. This, as we all know, to prevent the average temperature from increasing by more than 1.5 – 2°C and with it, catastrophic consequences for the planet’s climate. Reduction commitments (called NDCs, or Nationally Determined Contributions) must be renewed at least every five years and made increasingly ambitious. Such commitments or NDCs must incorporate quantifiable information regarding the reference year, offer deadlines and application periods, define scope and sectoral coverage, make explicit the methodologies for accounting for emissions, and specify policies and planning instruments by sector that are consistent. with emission reduction targets. Precisely, in all of this, the government of President López has been not only ignorant, but also cynical and regressive. In 2020, this government presented another NDC basically the same as the one delivered in 2015 by the government of President Peña (with an unconditional 22% reduction by 2030), without greater ambition, but with an impudent accounting trap (it raised the trend scenario or baseline of emissions by 2030 to feign reductions that are obviously false, given the regime’s retarded energy policy). In recent days, following the visit of John Kerry, the Mexican government offered another truly ridiculous NDC, with an alleged 30% decrease in emissions at the end of this decade, without specifying the baseline, or a turning point. in absolute emissions, without quantifiable information to the reference year, without sectoral policies or explicit instruments or decarbonization routes, without relation to the emissions inventory of our country, and without a calculation methodology. It does not even mention the electricity sector (the first or second in importance in emissions), submitting to government policies and decisions that block clean energy and promote fossil fuels. The Mexican government’s proposal only speaks of “35 rhetorical measures” of “natural solutions”, “low carbon transport”, “regulation and industrial development”, and “blue carbon”. They dare to present without any modesty the pernicious program “Sembrando Vida” – cause of deforestation – and the atrocious Mayan Train as “measures” to reduce emissions. Without any serious calculation procedure, they arbitrarily and obscurely determine that this will reduce emissions by “88.9 million tons of CO2 equivalent” (which would represent only approximately 12% of current emissions). With this in hand, the Mexican government will once again make a fool of itself before the world, and will be the object of ridicule at the next COP 27.

@g_quadri