Climate change in Mexico, who is afraid of green swans?

Who said that life is fair and that green swans appear to those who deserve it the most? Latin America Produces 6.4% of Global GDP and is responsible for 8.4% of Greenhouse Gases (GHG), but suffers disproportionately from the consequences of climate change. In this region, 17.1% of the 11,933 extreme weather events related to climate that were recorded in the world between 1980 and 2022 occurred. The data is part of a study subtitled Towards a Green and Just Transition, sponsored by various institutions: OECD, ECLAC , CAF and the European Commission.

Who said that being more vulnerable implies being more worried? Mexico is the country in the Latin American and Caribbean region that has had the most extreme weather events in the last four decades. It is one of the 12 countries in the world that has the most risks related to climate change. This does not prevent the citizens of Mexico from occupying ninth place in Latin America in a table that shows the most concerned/aware of the risks posed by climate change, according to a demographic study carried out by the Lloyds Register Foundation. When asked if they consider climate change a serious threat to their country in the next 20 years, a little less than 70% of Mexicans say yes. The most concerned are Chileans, where almost 90% answered affirmatively.

Why should we worry? From 2001 to date there are 2.6 extreme weather events per year in Mexico. It was 1.6 events per year, between 1980 and 2000. At this rate, it will be about four per year in the next decade. We are talking about natural catastrophes that affect more than 100,000 people, cause a minimum of 1,000 deaths or cause economic damage estimated at at least 2% of GDP. Here fit storms, droughts, floods and landslides.

Mexico can do more. By this I do not mean sending larger delegations to global summits like the one now taking place in Egypt. Nor is it a matter of occurrences. On Wednesday, in commissions, the Congress of Mexico City approved an opinion so that in 2040 only electric vehicles circulate in the capital. I say occurrences because it is a proposal that does not present a detailed study of how much the measure would cost or how it would be financed, who would pay for what, and what will happen to the internal combustion vehicles of hundreds of thousands of families in the capital.

Mexico has enshrined in Article 4 of the Constitution the Right to a healthy environment; It has a General Law on Climate Change that mandates the reduction of emissions to meet the objectives of the Paris Agreement and also has an Energy Transition Law, which requires reducing emissions from the energy sector. With all of the above, Mexico is the only G20 country that does not have a date to achieve “net zero”, this refers to the situation in which the GHGs from human activity are compensated with the reduction of emissions. Carbon dioxide is still being generated, but a similar amount is removed from the atmosphere.

The Ministry of the Environment and Natural Resources does not seem to suffer or be distressed by the environmental lags in this six-year term. Therefore, it is important that someone does the homework in Mexico. This is the case of the Climate Initiative of Mexico, a citizen organization directed by Adrián Fernández. He presented a proposal with 88 measures that would reduce emissions. The greatest effort would correspond to the energy sector, 22 measures for Electricity and 19 for oil and gas; second, there is industry and then transportation.

The work of ICM, signed by Luisa Sierra, Jorge Villarreal and Adrián Fernández proposes, among other things, the total exit of fuel oil in this decade; implement NOM for vehicles that reduce emissions; promote the circular economy in inputs such as paper and steel; include MSMEs in energy efficiency actions and increase the area of ​​forest land.

To achieve a very significant mitigation, it would be necessary to invest 105,000 million dollars, between now and 2030, according to the ICM study. The benefits would be 19,000 million dollars annually. The cost of not acting would be enormous, incalculable. What do you think will happen? Here come the green swans. Do you see them, do you hear them?

lmgonzalez@eleconomista.com.mx