Climate fight is Asia’s leadership opportunity

By putting climate action at the center of their efforts to rebuild consensus and reinvigorate multilateralism, Asian countries can open the world’s window of opportunity to prevent climate disaster. They would also catalyze their own ability to benefit from the enormous economic opportunities created by the green transition.

NEW YORK – A year ago, following the election of US President Joe Biden, multilateralism once again became at the heart of global climate action. G20 leaders agreed to more ambitious near-term climate targets on track to achieve net-zero emissions by mid-century, pledging to end inefficient fossil fuel subsidies and cooperate on clean energy deployment to phase out coal more quickly.

The willingness of China and India to tackle fossil fuels reflected a growing awareness of the macroeconomic risks of resisting the transition to clean energy.

These results were crucial in delivering a litany of new initiatives at last year’s United Nations Climate Change Conference in Glasgow (COP26) that were dedicated to “keeping 1.5 alive”, in line with the goal of the climate deal. of Paris to limit the increase in global temperature to 1.5º Celsius, relative to the pre-industrial average. They also helped set the stage for the landmark Glasgow Climate Pact, which commits all countries to gradually reduce coal use, even if India and China ignore calls to phase out coal altogether.

Unfortunately, the setting for the G20 summit in Bali two weeks ago could not have been more different. Geopolitical and economic conditions are much less favourable, due in large part to Russia’s vicious war of aggression in Ukraine, with the G7 countries backtracking on their commitments to end investment in fossil fuels. As a result, the heightened tensions between the US and China are expected to have eased somewhat with the bilateral meeting between Biden and President Xi Jinping in Bali. But beyond that, forging a solid result will be difficult.

With G20 countries accounting for around 80% of global greenhouse gas emissions, the summit would have set the tone for the final outcome of this year’s UN climate conference (COP27), which concluded in Egypt after after the G20 ended in Indonesia. Proceedings in Sharm El-Sheikh have already been dominated by the world’s most vulnerable countries calling for climate justice and demanding that big emitters pay to support their transitions and livelihoods.

That is why the fight against climate change can be the unifying moment that the G20 requires. And the Asian members of the G20 have a vital role to play in that.

Rather than backtrack on climate action during the ongoing and deepening crises of the past year, Asian economies have deepened their resolve. Major Asian emitters top the short list of countries that actually responded to the Glasgow Climate Pact’s call to increase their 2022 climate ambitions: India, Indonesia, the United Arab Emirates, Vietnam and Australia’s new government have all upgraded their targets. While more ambition is needed to bring commitments in line with the 1.5° Celsius target of the Paris agreement, regional momentum is moving in the right direction.

Asia is acting because it makes political sense. Research commissioned by the High Level Policy Commission on Getting Asia to Net Zero Emissions shows that more ambitious climate action is a boon for economic development in the region. If the region fully implements the climate goals it set at COP26, it will boost GDP growth by up to 5.4% by 2030, while creating more new jobs, lowering energy costs, and strengthening energy security. This is a big problem for governments looking to escape the inflation trap and rising energy prices.

Developing economies are also aware that embracing green transformation can help mobilize the huge amounts of investment needed to turn rhetoric into reality. For example, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh are among those publishing “Climate Prosperity Plans” which, if funded, could improve resilience, reduce poverty and spearhead economic growth.

Similarly, Indonesia and Vietnam are expected to announce new “Just Energy Transition Partnerships,” replicating a model in which developed countries pledged $8.5 billion to South Africa last year to enable a faster exit of coal while protecting resources. livelihoods of fossil fuel workers. Political will and policy certainty are powerful tools for unleashing capital flows from wealthy donor countries, de-risking private finances, and unlocking new domestic resources.

Asia finds itself in the multilateral dock at a critical time. India will take over the G20 presidency from Indonesia after last week’s summit, Japan will host the G7 summit next year and the United Arab Emirates, as part of the Asia-Pacific group, will host the COP28 climate conference in 2023. In short, climate action can be the common thread that helps rebuild a consensus in favor of multilateralism.

The G20 could start by seeking a unified commitment among member countries for climate action as a driver of recovery and economic growth. After India, the G20 presidency will rotate to Brazil, which is a unique opportunity to define what this looks like from the perspective of the major emerging economies. Countries like Indonesia, India and Brazil could emphasize the win-win benefits of deepening cooperation.

Another way the G20 could lead is by elevating the Bridgetown Agenda, championed by Barbadian Prime Minister Mia Mottley, to provide emergency liquidity, expand multilateral lending and mobilize the private sector, in part by seeking a new $650 billion issuance. of special drawing rights (SDRs), the reserve asset of the International Monetary Fund. Advancing the Bridgetown Agenda will require the political will of the world’s most powerful lenders and shareholders.

Under India’s leadership next year, the G20 should try to achieve tangible results. This could include developing a plan for modern and resilient energy systems; outline a supportive policy infrastructure for critical climate technologies such as green hydrogen and battery storage; and make climate finance work for all developing countries. India could also use the G77 bloc of developing economies as a proxy to ensure the G20 meets the needs of the world’s most vulnerable countries.

Multilateralism is on life support at a time when it is critical to the survival of humanity. By putting climate action at the center of their efforts to rebuild consensus and reinvigorate multilateralism, Asian countries will open the world’s window of opportunity to prevent climate disaster. They will also catalyze their own ability to benefit from the enormous economic and social opportunities created by the green transition.

The authors

Kevin Rudd, twice Prime Minister of Australia, is Chairman of the Asia Society, convener of the High Level Policy Commission on Bringing Asia to Net Zero, and author of Avoidable War: The Perils of Catastrophic Conflict between the US and Xi. Jinping China (PublicAffairs, 2022).

Ban Ki-moon, vice president of The Elders, is a former Secretary-General of the United Nations, a former Foreign Minister of South Korea, and a member of the High-Level Policy Commission to Bring Asia to Net Zero.

Copyright: Project Syndicate, 1995 – 2022

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