Competing National Interests

The “boundless friendship” of the Russian and Chinese governments, which was the beginning for a declared partnership before the Russian invasion of Ukraine occurred, is now weakening. China is disappointed that the invasion it carried out was a failure. What was going to be a lightning operation has turned into a nightmare for almost eight months. Ukrainian forces have put up a brave and imaginative resistance with the support of the West.

At the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit held in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, Putin publicly acknowledged China’s concerns about this invasion. At the same meeting, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi openly rebuked Putin.

For China, too, the terrible experience of the Russian invasion is a restraint for the pretensions of its “one China” policy in relation to Taiwan.

If China invades Taiwan, it would cause more damage than the Russian occupation of Ukraine. Taiwan contributes 63% of the world’s semiconductor production, so if this were to be interrupted it would have a devastating effect on the world economy.

The United States has openly expressed its support for Taiwan. Last September, President Biden stated at the United Nations General Assembly that the United States wishes to maintain peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait and opposes unilateral changes to the status quo.

Major Chinese media outlets such as the “Global Times,” the daily of the Communist Party, warned that nuclear weapons, if used, would seriously endanger world peace. This is in response to Putin’s threat to use them if necessary in the escalation of the war. It’s a mistake, like the sorcerer’s apprentice who unleashes forces that he can’t control later.

This is a difficult time for China, due to economic difficulties. China’s debt amounts to more than 300% of its GDP, there is a high level of capital outflow estimated at 280,000 million dollars, there is a high rate of youth unemployment and serious damage from its “zero covid” policy. It is losing trade and investment mainly with Europe, which is its most important economic partner.

At the United Nations General Assembly, where 143 countries, including Mexico, recognized the illegality committed by the government of Vladimir Putin in seizing four territories from Ukraine, China expressed its abstention, reflecting doubts on the part of its government.

In the 2022 National Security Strategy of the Joe Biden government, it is recognized that China is the main rival of the West for its “diplomatic, military and technological power”. For this reason, it is convenient to remember a recommendation of Henry Kissinger, the successful negotiator of important world conflicts when he says: “An order will have to emerge, almost as it did in past centuries, from a reconciliation and a balance of competing national interests.”

smota@eleconomista.com.mx