The Consumer Confidence Indicator (ICC), carried out jointly by Banco de México and Inegi, is more like a political popularity survey than a good indication of the economic condition at the time the clients are consulted. citizens.
It is easier to take the result of that poll as an electoral advance than as a real economic thermometer. And this joint exercise is not badly done, it simply measures moods before a conscious analysis of the consumer about their real possibilities of going out to buy, although it has good control questions to undress the interviewee in his economic condition.
To stand in front of the ICC graph of the last six years is to see an X-ray of the fall in popularity of former President Enrique Peña Nieto and the euphoria among millions that the rise to power of Andrés Manuel López Obrador caused.
When the graph of consumer confidence is filtered with those of the economic cycle, we have euphoric consumers in the middle of the recession and very angry consumers when the country was still growing above 2%, with low inflation and practically full employment.
The pandemic and its confinement, at the beginning of 2020, was a moment of shock for all and the consumers surveyed showed that feeling of concern. But the only “V” that Mexico will see in its rebound process after the adverse economic effects, with everything and a totally absent government, will be seen in this ICC, in any other indicator of the Mexican economy.
It is a true indicator of hope, because it is precisely in the question of the expected situation of the home in 12 months that an overwhelming optimism is reflected, even in the worst part of the pandemic.
Of course, when the question of the real possibilities that there are in the home to buy at this moment some durable good such as a washing machine or a television in comparison with those they had a year ago, the respondents are located there at a level of reality of not having so many economic capacities for it.
And when specifically exploring the possibility for members of the household to buy a car, new or used, or remodel the house, there the bucket of cold water places these two responses on a downward curve.
Perhaps the enthusiasts surveyed believe that inflation is not a matter of the federal government, but of the Bank of Mexico, because there is clarity regarding the price pressures that the economy suffers. This would be the only graph that could correspond to the objective measurement of prices.
Of course, having voters overwhelmingly happy with their government, although it does not have results and encouraged consumers, even though they have really limited their purchasing power, helps to maintain social stability.
However, when these enthusiastic consumers realize that their optimism is based on feelings and not on a better economic reality, there may come a disappointment that has an economic, political and social impact.
ecampos@eleconomista.mx
Host of Televisa Newscasts
The great Depression
Degree in Communication Sciences from the National Autonomous University of Mexico, with a specialty in finance from the Autonomous Technological Institute of Mexico and a master’s degree in Journalism from the Anáhuac University.
His professional career has been dedicated to different media. He is currently a columnist for the newspaper El Economista and a host of newscasts on Televisa. He is the owner of the 2:00 pm news space on Foro TV.
He is a specialist in economic-financial matters with more than 25 years of experience as a commentator and host on radio and television. He has been part of companies such as Radio Programs de México, where he participated in the VIP business radio. He was also part of the management and talent team of Radio Fórmula.