Consumer credit grew 9.0% in November

Consumer credit from commercial banks continues to show dynamism. In November it increased 9.0% real annual, to reach a balance of 1.21 trillion pesos, according to the Monetary Aggregates and financial activity for said month published by the Bank of Mexico (Banxico).

This growth is the highest recorded by the commercial banking consumer portfolio, since November 2016, when it presented an increase of 9.3%, according to information from the central body.

The monetary aggregates specify that in the eleventh month of the year, all the consumer subsegments returned to show growth, being credit cards where the greatest rise was registered with 12.3% in its real annual comparison, with a balance of 464.500 million pesos .

Cards were followed by payroll loans, with real annual growth of 8.3% and a balance of 314,000 million pesos; and personal with an increase of 6.0% and a balance of 192,400 million.

Meanwhile, credits for the acquisition of durable consumer goods had a growth of 4.3%, reaching a balance of 188.400 million pesos. Here it is worth noting that automotive credit -the main component of this subsegment- has already shown real annual growth of 0.4 percent.

Hilo 11 months of growth

Thus, consumer credit from commercial banks recorded 11 consecutive months of growth in November.

The above, after 21 months of falls (all of 2021 and almost all of 2020) affected by the Covid-19 pandemic.

Early signs of deterioration

The most recent monthly report on banking and the financial system prepared by BBVA’s economic studies area highlights that the dynamism of employment and real wages has enabled the performance of the different consumer credit segments to be sustained.

However, incipient signs of deterioration are beginning to be observed in certain segments of this portfolio.

After remaining at historically low levels, the Delinquency Index (IMOR) for consumer credit reached 3.0% in October, slightly higher than the average observed in the first nine months of the year (2.9%), with the most significant increase in the personal loan portfolio (whose IMOR went from an average of 4.4% between January and September, to one of 4.7% in October)”, he refers.

Companies and housing also advance

According to the central bank report, in November the current credit portfolio granted by commercial banks to the private sector (including consumption) grew 4.8% real per year for a total balance of 5.43 trillion pesos.

Inside, the portfolio of companies and individuals with business activity increased 3.3% for a balance of 2.92 trillion pesos; while housing grew 3.9% and placed the balance at 1.19 trillion pesos.

Slowdown in employment will impact

BBVA’s analysis states that the growth of consumer and housing financing has been supported by the good performance of the labor market, so a slowdown in it would have a negative impact on the performance of said portfolios.

eduardo.juarez@eleconomista.mx