The year 2021 comes in the middle of a pandemic that continues to raise its bill: the official death toll has just surpassed two million worldwide. Furthermore, the rate at which victims are growing, far from slowing, continues to accelerate in Spain, Europe and practically everywhere.
Jan 11
First dead
by covid in China
Feb. 13
First death
in Spain
China was the origin of the outbreak, but as of March it controls the situation
Mar 14
First alarm state
in Spain
10.000
deaths
accumulated
in Spain
April 3
Apr 16
The day with the most deaths of the first wave (10.467)
In summer, deaths stabilized around 5,000 a day
21 de jun.
End of the first alarm state
30.000
deaths
Sep 15
27 sep.
First million
dead
Among the countries with the most deaths there are several Europeans such as Italy (80.000), Spain (53,000) and France (69.000)
Oct 24
Second alarm state
50.000
deaths
Dec. 28
These days, in January, some 13,000 official deaths every day
Source: ourworldindata.org.
THE COUNTRY
Jan 11
First dead
by covid in China
Feb. 13
First death
in Spain
China was the origin of the outbreak, but as of March it controls the situation
Mar 14
First alarm state
in Spain
10.000
deaths
accumulated
in Spain
April 3
Apr 16
The day with the most deaths of the first wave (10.467)
In summer, deaths stabilized around 5,000 a day
21 de jun.
End of the first alarm state
30.000
deaths
Sep 15
27 sep.
First million
dead
Among the countries with the most deaths there are several Europeans such as Italy (80.000), Spain (53,000) and France (69.000)
Oct 24
Second alarm state
50.000
deaths
Dec. 28
These days, in January, some 13,000 official deaths every day
Source: ourworldindata.org.
THE COUNTRY
Among the countries with the most deaths there are several Europeans such as Italy, France and Spain
These days there are some 13,000 official deaths every day
Apr 16
The day with the most deaths of the first wave (10.467)
In summer, deaths stabilized around 5,000 a day
27 sep.
The first million
dead
China was the origin of the outbreak, but as of March it controls the situation
Jan 11
First dead
by covid in China
Feb. 13
First death
in Spain
Rest of South America
10.000
accumulated deaths
in Spain
Apr 3
30.000
deaths
Sep 15
Mar 14
First alarm state
in Spain
21 de jun.
End of the first alarm state
Oct 24
Second alarm state
50.000
deaths
Dec. 28
Source: ourworldindata.org.
THE COUNTRY
Among the countries with the most deaths there are several Europeans such as Italy (80.000), France (69,000) and Spain (53.000)
January 2021
These days there are some 13,000 official deaths every day
April 16th
The day with the most deaths of the first wave (10.467)
July
In summer, deaths stabilized around 5,000 a day
September 27
The first million
dead
China was the origin of the outbreak, but as of March it controls the situation
January 11
First dead
by covid in China
February 13th
First death
in Spain
Rest of South America
10.000
accumulated deaths
in Spain
April 3
30.000
deaths
accumulated
September 15
March 14
First alarm state
in Spain
June 21
End of the first alarm state
October 24th
The second alarm state comes into effect
50.000
deaths
accumulated
Dec. 28
Source: ourworldindata.org.
THE COUNTRY
The virus took seven months to claim the first million deaths, but it took three months to add the second million. If in summer the deceased were around 5,000 a day, according to statistics kept by Our World in Data and Johns Hopkins University, now they have risen to 13,000. Almost triple every day.
In this increase there may be a part of statistical mirage – because there will be countries that count their deaths better than in May – but it is also a reflection of the nature of the epidemic: SARS-CoV-2 spreads to more countries and spreads faster in our winter. In Europe, for example, there are countries like Bulgaria, Hungary or the Czech Republic, where the virus practically did not arrive until the autumn. There the deaths were only a few hundred in spring, but now they number in the thousands.
The speed of the second million reminds us that we are in a race against time. Although the vaccine fuels our optimism for the future, the immediate reality is that immunity remains a long way off. In Spain, perhaps 10% of the population has passed the infection, according to the seroprevalence study of the Carlos III Health Institute, to which another 2% of vaccinated people will hopefully be added (no one has yet received full treatment). But that means the vast majority are still vulnerable, and the virus could still kill tens of thousands of people. That is why vaccination of the world is a race, logistics and politics: at what speed can we manufacture, distribute and vaccinate? If things go as we expect, the rate at which countries are immunized will be the rate at which the pandemic slows down.
While that happens, Europe is the continent with the most official deaths, above 615,000, followed by North America (565,000) and South America (384,000). They are the three regions hardest hit by the virus, the three hovering around 900 deaths per million inhabitants. Asia registers 354,000 deaths, but it is an overpopulated continent and in reality its mortality per inhabitant is 10 times lower.
Three of the four countries with the most deaths are the United States (380,000), Brazil (205,000) and Mexico (137,000), which in addition to being large have a high mortality rate. The fourth is India (151,000), where mortality is much lower, but which has 1.3 billion inhabitants. Also among the 10 with the most deaths are several medium-sized countries where the virus has been deadly: the United Kingdom (85,000), Italy (80,000), France (69,000) and Spain (53,000). They are among the worst in deaths per capita.
Belgium has the worst mortality figure, with 1,700 deaths per million inhabitants (considering countries with more than 10 million people). This list is followed by Italy, the Czech Republic, the United Kingdom, Peru, the United States and Spain, all places where the virus has killed one person in every thousand inhabitants.
It is important to take these figures as approximations. First, because not all countries have the same rules for attributing a death to the virus — Belgium, for example, and contrary to what most do, includes “suspicious” deaths in their official statistics, although they have not been confirmed with a lab test. But you also have to count on the fact that the official statistics will not be perfect in any country and that in some they will be very bad.
In general, the deaths from coronavirus will be more than those officially recorded. It’s something we know for sure in places like Spain, where civil registries have observed an abnormal excess of 80,000 deaths since March (compared to 2019 and prior years). Not all that excess will necessarily be due to covid, but a large part will be. First wave death certificates, completed by doctors, attributed 95% of the excess to the virus. The same occurs in countries such as Italy, the United Kingdom or the United States, as can be seen in the last graph.
Evolution of the official number of deaths from covid
per million inhabitants. The last digit is the number
cumulative deaths as of January 10, 2021
Excess of deaths, for any cause,
observed in civil registries.
Fuente: Our World in Data.
THE COUNTRY
Evolution of the official number of deaths from covid
per million inhabitants. The last digit is the number
cumulative deaths as of January 10, 2021
Excess of deaths, for any cause,
observed in civil registries.
Fuente: Our World in Data.
THE COUNTRY
Evolution of the official number of deaths from covid per million inhabitants.
The last figure is the number of accumulated deaths as of January 10, 2021
Excess of deaths, for any reason, observed in the civil registries.
Fuente: Our World in Data.
THE COUNTRY
Evolution of the official number of deaths from covid per million inhabitants.
The last figure is the number of accumulated deaths as of January 10, 2021
Excess of deaths, for any reason, observed in the civil registries.
Fuente: Our World in Data.
THE COUNTRY
To get an idea of the impact of the covid, suffice it to say that it has been placed among the leading causes of death in the world. With data as of December 31, the World Health Organization (WHO) says that it is the sixth pathology on that list, at the level of lung cancer and ahead of Alzheimer’s, diarrhea, diabetes and kidney diseases. One of the leading causes of death did not exist a year ago.
The question that remains in the air is when the three million deaths will be exceeded, and if there will be three, four or how many million in 2021. Answering it is impossible because the vaccine race is only beginning, and although it is advancing in Spain and the West, do not forget that the world is very big. It is also a question that has already been left unanswered with the first million. At the time, Dr. Mike Ryan, from the WHO, said that the second million “was not impossible.” Three months later, it is clear that he was right, although he was wrong with the calculations: “If we look at the loss of a million people in nine months and then we look at the reality of getting the vaccine out there in nine months, it is a huge task ”. But the vaccine did not have nine months to avoid the second million, nor will it have them to avoid the third.