Covid UK: Almost HALF London cases are now the Indian variant, data suggests

India’s coronavirus variant could be more transmissible than Britain’s dominant Kent strain, Professor Chris Whitty warned tonight amid growing fears over the mutated virus

India’s coronavirus variant could be more transmissible than Britain’s currently dominant Kent strain, Professor Chris Whitty warned tonight as fears continue to grow over the mutated virus.

Public Health England data show the variant of concern — scientifically called B.1.617.2 — makes up between 40 per cent and half of all cases detected in London.  

There is no evidence it will cause worse disease or make vaccines less effective. But addressing the nation in a Downing Street press conference tonight, England’s chief medical officer warned it must be monitored in case it turns out to be more dangerous. 

Professor Whitty said: ‘What we know with all the variants is that things can come out of a blue sky — you’re not expecting it and then something happens. 

‘That is what happened with B.1.1.7 (which is commonly called the Kent variant and is currently dominant in Britain) and that has happened to India with this variant as well. 

‘I think our view is that this is a highly transmissible variant, at least as transmissible as the B.1.1.7 variant. It is possible it is more transmissible but we’ll have to see.’ Data suggests the Kent variant is about 50 per cent more infectious than the original coronavirus type.

He added: ‘At this point in time, our view is that it is less likely to be able to escape vaccination than some of the other variants, particularly the South African one. But the data are not properly in there, so I think we need to be cautious until we’ve seen clear data that gives us an answer one way or the other.’

Professor Whitty’s comments came in the same televised briefing that Boris Johnson used to announce a major loosening of lockdown rules for next Monday.  

The Prime Minister batted away calls for lockdown to be eased faster tonight as he talked up the latest relaxations, with pints inside the pub back from Monday, along with hugs for friends and family and staycations.

It came just an hour after it was revealed that England had recorded zero Covid deaths for the first time since July, despite growing fears about the Indian variant. Britain’s outbreak overall remains flat, with another four fatalities and 2,357 cases posted today.

In a report last week PHE said B.1.617.2 ‘may have replaced B.1.1.7 to some extent’. Testing figures suggest that only 50.2 per cent of all positive cases in London were caused by the Kent variant in late April, down from over 90 per cent in March. 

The other 49.8 per cent were caused by other strains of the virus. The most common one was the Indian variant (B.1.617). Data showed it made up at least 37.5 per cent of confirmed cases but the exact proportion is unknown because not all samples have been thoroughly analysed.

Professor Christina Pagel, a mathematician at University College London and member of Independent SAGE, said the other half was ‘potentially all’ the Indian variant. Despite the rapid spread, cases in London remain stable.

The variant has been divided into three types, with type .2 the most common, but only one in five cases of this in London were among returning travellers, showing it is spreading within the city. 

In the North West only 16 per cent of people infected with the variant had been out of the country recently, but most other regions saw a third to a half of their cases linked directly to international travel, likely to India.

Dr Deepti Gurdasani, an epidemiologist at Queen Mary University in London, said on Good Morning Britain: ‘Cases of this new variant are doubling every week within the UK while other variants are dropping. Overall, cases have been dropping, which shows that even with current restrictions in place this variant is growing very, very quickly. In London, 50 per cent of cases now are no longer the so-called Kent variant.’

Documents released by SAGE today also warned of a ‘significant recent increase in prevalence of the B.1.617.2 variant, including some community transmission’. 

In a report, No10’s scientific advisers said: ‘PHE is currently prioritising case finding and containment for this variant. Early indications, including from international experience, are that this variant may be more transmissible than the B.1.1.7 variant (low confidence).’

Professor Christina Pagel, a mathematician at University College London and member of Independent SAGE, produced this graph using PHE data to show that the proportion of Covid cases being caused by the Indian variant type .2 has surged to almost 40 per cent in the most recent data 

Public Health England figures reported on May 5, taken from tests up to around April 27, show that fewer than half of cases have been in international travellers in most areas, and that the proportion of cases caused by the Indian variant .2 is rising particularly in London and the North West

The Indian variant has had a meteoric rise since it was first spotted in the UK with cases surging to 790 across all three types, from just 77 a month ago on April 15.

The most cases of type .2, which is the fastest spreading and makes up 520 of the 790, have been in London, with 191.

There were 87 in the North West, 56 in East Anglia and 53 in the South East, with fewer than 50 in all other regions. 

In London the variant is confirmed to have made up at least 37.5 per cent of all cases in the week ending April 27. In the North West it was 17.1 per cent.

Scientists are concerned it could be outcompeting the Kent variant, meaning it is becoming more widespread – either because it spreads faster or because it is better at reinfecting people who have been vaccinated or are immune from past infection.

But Professor Sharon Peacock, Cambridge expert and director of COG-UK, which is in charge of analysing new variants, said today: ‘There isn’t any evidence that this causes more severe disease. There’s just not enough data at the moment.’

Only half of infections run through lab analysis were confirmed to be the Kent strain (green line), compared to over 90 per cent in March. Other variants (purple line) now make up over 49 per cent of cases and the most common of them is the Indian strain – it’s even possible it accounts for the full 49.8 per cent

The dominance of the Kent variant (green line) has been weakening in almost all regions, PHE figures show

One of scientists’ biggest concerns about the Indian variant is that it has evolved – or will evolve further – in a way that makes vaccine immunity less effective against it.

Early tests by a lab run by Professor Ravi Gupta at the University of Cambridge suggested that the original version of the Indian variant (type .1) saw a slight dip in effectiveness of immunity, but not as bad as with the South African strain. 

It suggested that levels of useful antibodies – virus-fighting proteins made by the immune system – were about six times lower than with the Wuhan variant. But for the South African strain they were 10 times lower in similar tests, the team said.

Professor Gupta said: ‘Although at population level, with good vaccine coverage the mortality rate and severity will be very low in the post-vaccination era, there are people out there susceptible to this virus who cant be vaccinated.

‘That fraction of people is larger than one may think because it includes people with diabetes and underlying conditions. 

‘Variants may increase the margin of getting around those defences and, if those defences are at lower levels, it increases the risk of severe illness.’

The Government revealed last week that scientists now think the variant — linked to an explosion of cases in India — is ‘at least’ as infectious as the current dominant Kent strain.

Cases have more than doubled in a week and there are clear hotspots in Bolton and London.

Health officials are confident vaccines currently being used should still work against the variant but are carrying out urgent tests to be certain.

Scientists have grouped the Indian variant into three separate sub-strains, with type 2 quickly spreading in the UK. It has been found in schools, care homes and places of worship, it was reported. 

The other two are genetically similar strains — B1617.1 and B1617.3 — and aren’t currently considered variants of concern. But PHE said their status will be kept ‘under constant review’.   

Despite being more infectious, health chiefs don’t believe the variant is deadlier than original coronavirus strains. 

The move to make the Indian variant one ‘of concern’ means officials can now put in place tougher measures to contain the strain, including ordering door-to-door tests and boosting contact tracing. All residents living in areas where the variant is spreading in the community will be asked to get a test, even if they don’t have symptoms.

The Department of Health announced it would start surge testing in Bolton in the BL3 postcode and has asked residents to book a test online or on the phone so they can go for one at a site or have one delivered to them at home. Surge testing in London has not yet been announced. 

Prime Minister Boris Johnson said that tracking of the Indian variant will be ‘absolutely ruthless’. 

While celebrating local election victories last week, Mr Johnson told reporters: ‘What we’re doing there is making sure that we are absolutely ruthless in the surge testing, in the door-to-door tracking of any contacts.

‘At the moment we’re looking carefully at the way the Indian variant seems to function, we don’t see any evidence that it is resistant to the vaccines or in any way more dangerous.’

But one expert warned the Prime Minister’s roadmap out of lockdown might be delayed because of outbreaks of the variant.

Dr Duncan Robinson, policy and strategy analytics academic at Loughborough University, said a ‘political decision’ may be taken to slow down easing restrictions because the strain could disproportionately affect areas where there are outbreaks.