Crude oil remains under pressure after the news that Iranian crude supplies could return to the market

The price of crude oil remains under pressure after the news that Iranian crude supplies could return to the market. Investors have started to behave nervously; still, crude oil prices advanced on Friday, taking a breather after three days of losses.

Fundamental analysis: Iranian crude supplies could return to the market

The crude oil price advanced on Friday after three days of losses, but the risk of further decline is still not over despite this. Iranian crude supplies could return to the market, and if this happens, the crude oil will probably be at lower price levels.

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Iran and world powers made improvements on talks to revive a 2015 nuclear deal while Iran’s president said the United States was ready to lift sanctions on his country’s oil, banking and shipping sectors.

“While the ink is not yet dry and outstanding issues remain to be resolved, significant progress appears to have been made in the ongoing nuclear negotiations in Vienna and around 1 million barrels per day of additional Iranian barrels looks set to potentially hit the market in the back half of this year,” said Helima Croft from RBC Capital Markets.

It is also important to say concerns over fresh COVID-19 outbreaks in Asia represent a problem, and a rise in infection numbers poses downside risks for the oil demand recovery. The positive news is that vaccination programs would allow more people to travel this summer; however, concerns over the pace of vaccination campaigns in many parts of the world still represent an issue.

The global business activity is still under pressure while the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries forecasts a stronger oil demand recovery in the second half of this year.

Technical analysis: Crude oil has weakened from its monthly highs

Those whose interest is to invest in commodities like oil should consider that the risk of further decline is still not over.

Crude oil has weakened from its monthly highs, and if the price falls below $60 support, it would be a firm “sell” signal, and the next target could be around $55. The first resistance level stands around $68, and if the price jumps above this level, it would be a signal to trade crude oil, and we have the open way to $70. 

Summary

Crude oil prices advanced on Friday, taking a breather after three days of losses; still, the risk of further decline is not over. Crude oil remains under pressure after the news that Iranian crude supplies could return to the market, while concerns over fresh COVID-19 outbreaks in Asia also represent a problem. If the price falls below $60 support, it would be a firm “sell” signal, and the next target could be around $55.