(Trends Wide) — Whether your interest in politics is the most staunch or you only get involved every other November to vote, it’s always a good idea to brush up on some of the terms you hear during election season and remember who’s running for election and how Trends Wide evaluates electoral contests. Here are the answers to some basic questions that many people have.
When is election day?
Elections in the United States are held on the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November every two years. Election day 2022 is November 8.
Who can vote?
Most US citizens over the age of 18 can vote. There are exceptions, such as people convicted of a felony, although they can vote in certain states.
Does a voter need to be registered?
Voter registration is required in all states except North Dakota. The deadline for voter registration varies. Some states require that the voter be registered about a month before Election Day. Many now allow people to register on election day.
Who can vote early?
Most states offer some form of early voting, either by mail or in person. The rules vary by state.
Which states vote by mail?
Eight US states: California, Colorado, Hawaii, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, Vermont and Washington and the city of Washington mail a ballot to each voter. Some others allow everyone to vote early, and others require an excuse, although almost everyone can do some form of early voting.
Why do only a third of senators stand for election?
Senators serve a six-year term, and there are federal elections every two years. Seats are divided into three classes, and about a third of the Senate is up for election every two years. In the 2022 elections there are class III senators. See the rankings of the contests made by Inside Elections.
Why are the 435 members of the House of Representatives elected every two years?
The House of Representatives is the part of the federal government closest to the people. The election of members of the House every two years allows voters more direct and immediate control of the direction of their government.
What is a “changed seat” or “picked up”?
A swapped or picked seat is a seat in the House or Senate that voters take away from one party and entrust to the other. Due to redistricting, nine House seats, including seven new seats in which there are no incumbents and two in which two incumbents face each other, cannot be classified as picked up by either party.
Why does the number of gubernatorial elections fluctuate each cycle?
Each state treats its governors slightly differently. Forty-eight of the 50 US states elect governors to four-year terms. Two states, New Hampshire and Vermont, elect governors to two-year terms. The majority of states, 36, hold gubernatorial elections in midterm election years between presidential elections. Three states, Kentucky, Mississippi, and Louisiana, elect their governors in elections outside of the year before the presidential election. Two states, New Jersey and Virginia, elect governors in off-year elections the year after the presidential election.
What is an “incumbent” or “incumbent”?
An “incumbent” or incumbent is a legislator or elected official who is running for re-election.
What is a special election?
When a senator retires, dies, or leaves office before their term is up, the state governor usually appoints a replacement to fill the seat. Afterwards, voters usually have the opportunity to give their opinion, usually in the next federal election. This is how Democratic Senators Mark Kelly of Arizona and Raphael Warnock of Georgia were first elected in 2020 in special elections and why in 2022 they are both running for a full six-year term.
This year, there are special Senate elections in Oklahoma, where Republican Sen. James Inhofe will resign next year, and in California, where Democratic Sen. Alex Padilla, who was appointed to replace Vice President Kamala Harris, is running both to cover the remainder of Harris’ term (which ends in January) to win the next one.
Members of the House of Representatives cannot be appointed, so when a House seat becomes vacant there must be a special election to fill it. This year, there is a special election in Indiana to fill the last two months of Rep. Jackie Walorski’s term. Walorski died in August.
What is ranked-choice voting?
Several cities and states are experimenting with ways to give voters more access to the political process and potentially depolarize politics. Ranked-Choice Voting is a system in place in most elections in Maine and Alaska, in which voters rank their choices in order of preference rather than choosing a single candidate. If no candidate gets more than 50% of the first place votes, the last candidate is dropped and the second choice of the voters who selected that candidate gets those votes.
This process is repeated until a winner emerges.
What does “vote estimation” mean?
Based on data such as turnout in previous elections, ballot papers cast or requested, and pre-election polls, organizations can anticipate how many votes are expected in a given election. A vote estimate can underestimate or overestimate the actual vote, and the percentage of information can go up or down throughout election night depending on how those estimates are adjusted as analysts evaluate the data in real time. As those estimates consolidate, they can be useful in predicting how many votes remain to be counted.
What are exit polls or exit polls?
Exit polls are large-scale surveys conducted by a consortium of news organizations among early and absentee voters and voters on Election Day. They are conducted as voters leave the polls, on Election Day, and in many states at early voting locations, and also by phone or online prior to Election Day to account for mail-in and vote-by-mail voting. early vote.
What does “down the ballot” mean?
The top of the ballot is the vote that the largest number of people in a state will see on their ballot.
In a presidential year, those candidates are at the top of the ballot. The most local election candidates are at the bottom of the ballot. A candidate for the House of Representatives, for example, is below a presidential candidate. A mayoral candidate is below a House candidate.
How can Trends Wide project an election that still has no votes?
This is a task that Trends Wide takes very seriously. Based on previous election results, exit polls, recent opinion polls, early voter turnout, and other factors, it is sometimes possible to see that a particular candidate will win an election. If there is any chance of a change, Trends Wide will refrain from projecting an outcome.
How does Trends Wide make its projections?
Using a mix of many factors, including current and previous election results, real-time exit polls, recent opinion polls, voter registration data, and others, Trends Wide’s decision desk is typically able to project reliably that a candidate has received enough support to win. However, this is a projection and not the last word. Officially determined by state officials and courts.
What is a ballot initiative? How does a state decide to put one on the ballot?
Although most laws are passed by state legislatures or Congress, many states submit some issues directly to voters during elections. These can range from issues such as the legalization of marijuana to abortion or fiscal measures. Ballot initiatives give voters a more active role in choosing the direction of their laws.
What is a Trends Wide “key event”? Who decides it?
“Key contention” is a subjective term. Most political observers generally agree that only a subset of elections is truly competitive in November, and these are generally considered the key contests. Political parties spend more money on these contests. Journalists spend more time covering them.
Of the 35 Senate races in 2022, Inside Elections election forecasts see three as true bets and another four lean Republican or Democrat. Nineteen House races are real gambles, though many more could end up being hotly contested.
Five gubernatorial elections have an uncertain outcome. View the Inside Elections ratings for the Senate, House, and Governor elections. Key races can also be elections that may be less competitive but have broader implications or feature especially notable candidates.
What is the balance of power?
Political parties have more power when they control the House of Representatives or the Senate by winning a majority of the seats in that chamber. The party in power controls the committees that write the legislation and decides which measures will be voted on by the floor. In the House of Representatives, the party with at least 218 seats has the majority and, assuming it can collectively endorse a candidate, chooses the Speaker of the House. In the Senate, the party with 51 votes has the majority.
How does the vice president runoff work in the Senate?
The vice president’s official duty is to serve as president of the Senate, though few modern vice presidents have spent much time on Capitol Hill. In votes where there is a tie, the Vice President may cast a tie-breaking vote. In the current Senate, in which there is an even split of Republican and Democratic votes (two independents currently in the Senate typically side with the Democrats), the vice president’s tie-breaking vote also gives the Democrats control of the chamber. .
Will we know who wins on Election Day?
Don’t count on definitive answers to every contest on election night. With so many people voting early and by mail and with so many close races, it’s likely that it will take days or weeks to find out who has won some races. The margins of power in both the House of Representatives and the Senate are narrow enough that it will take days to know who will have the most seats.
