A government shutdown has postponed the announcement of the 2026 Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA), which will determine the benefit increase for millions of recipients.
The adjustment is calculated using September’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. The release of this data, originally scheduled for October 15, has been moved to October 24 due to the shutdown. The Social Security Administration (SSA) has confirmed it will announce the 2026 COLA on the same day.
An SSA spokesperson stated that while the announcement is delayed, the increased payments for approximately 75 million Social Security and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) beneficiaries will still take effect in January without interruption.
Based on recent inflation data, experts project the 2026 COLA to be between 2.7% and 2.8%. An increase in this range would raise the average retirement benefit by approximately $54 per month.
This projected adjustment is higher than the 2.5% COLA implemented in 2025 and surpasses the 20-year average of 2.6%, according to The Senior Citizens League. However, it remains significantly lower than the adjustments seen during the post-pandemic inflation surge, which included a 40-year high of 8.7% in 2023 and 5.9% in 2022.
The net increase retirees will see in their monthly checks also depends on the cost of Medicare Part B premiums, which are typically deducted directly from Social Security benefits. Projections from Medicare trustees suggest the standard monthly Part B premium could rise by 11.6%, or $21.50, to $206.50 in 2026. Higher-income beneficiaries may face additional surcharges. The official Medicare Part B premium amounts for 2026 have not yet been announced.
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