The new waves of the Covid-19 pandemic have put the labor market recovery at a global level, which is expected to return to its pre-pandemic levels only until 2024, warned the International Labor Organization (ILO).
According to the report World Employment and Social Outlook: Trends 2022, two years after the pandemic, employment conditions remain unstable, which does not allow projecting a solid recovery in the short term.
The agency estimates that this year the equivalent of 52 million jobs globally, twice as much as considered in the previous report. Meanwhile, the projection for the unemployment rate is 5.9%, 0.5 points above what was registered in 2019.
“To a certain extent, the lowering of the forecasts for 2022 reflects the effect that recent variants of the Covid-19 virus, such as Delta Y Omicron, is having in the world of work, as well as the significant uncertainty regarding the future course of the pandemic”, the report highlights.
The women They have been the most affected by unemployment, in a “disproportionate impact” that will continue in the coming years, whose labor participation rate is estimated to be 43.8% in 2022, 1.4 percentage points below that registered in 2019.
Another sequel will remain among those who are currently preparing at a professional level due to the closure of educational centers due to the contingency. This, warns the organization, will generate long-term consequences in employment and the continuity of education, as well as in the training of young people, especially those with limited or no access to online learning.
“After two years of crisis, the outlook remains fragile and the path to recovery is slow and uncertain,” said Guy Ryder, ILO Director-General. “We are already seeing potentially lasting damage in the Work market, along with a worrying rise in poverty and inequality. In many cases, workers are being forced to switch to a different type of work, for example in response to the prolonged slump in international travel and tourism.”
Given this context, the ILO projects that Unemployment it will remain until 2023 above the levels prior to those of the health emergency due to the new coronavirus, “at least”. And it also recognizes that these projections could fall short of the reality of the market, since many people have left the labor force into inactivity in recent years, which is not directly reflected in unemployment rates.
“There can be no true recovery from this pandemic without extensive labor market recovery. And, to be sustainable, this recovery must be based on the principles of decent work, including health and safety, equality, social protection and social dialogue,” said Guy Ryder.
This situation is expected to continue until 2023 in all regions of the world, with the greatest lag observed in Latin America and the Caribbean and in Southeast Asia. Europe, for its part, would be the one that would return to its pre-pandemic occupation levels soonest. In sum, it is estimated that next year the equivalent of 27 million jobs full-time.
“The prospects of world labor market have deteriorated since the latest ILO projections; It is likely that in the coming years it will remain difficult for much of the world to return to pre-pandemic performance.
In the count of labor effects by Covid-19 globally, the year with the greatest impact was 2020 due to the massive closure of non-essential economic activities to curb contagion, a space in which they were lost. 258 million jobs full-time; in 2021 this decrease was 125 million places.