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Beirut- The Lebanese people's fears of a large-scale war that Israel might wage have exacerbated the gap between the political and sectarian parties regarding the position on… HezbollahEveryone is waiting for the repercussions of the party's response to the assassination of its leaders. Fouad Shukr forSouthern Suburb toBeirutand head of the political bureau of the Islamic Resistance Movement (agitation) Ismail Haniyeh in Tehranand what will follow in terms of Israeli response.
While Israel's threats are growing, Sound wall -On an almost daily basis- in the sky of Beirut, the political scene appears divided and complex, even if it is a natural extension of a reality that has existed for years before. October 7, 2023.
The support war also caused a double paralysis in major entitlements, most notably the presidential vacuum that has continued since the end of the term of the former President of the Republic. Michel Aoun On October 31, 2022.
How are the positions of political and sectarian forces being formed regarding what has happened since October 8? And who is anticipating the consequences of the escalation between Hezbollah and Israel?
Constant and variable
In practice, the reading of political positions is manifested between fixed and variable:
- In the constant Hezbollah enjoys near-unanimity within its Shiite community, as well as its ally. Amal Movement Headed by the President House of Representatives Nabih BerriAnd supports it politically, militarily and popularly.
Berri also plays a pivotal role in marketing the party's position in discussions and correspondence with foreign and Arab delegations, most notably the US Special Envoy Amos Hochstein, who has been moving between Israel and Lebanon throughout the past period, where he always meets and communicates with Berri.
- Perhaps the most prominent variable Hezbollah's success in achieving a major breakthrough that was difficult for it before the war, in the Druze and Sunni arenas. On the one hand, the position of the Progressive Socialist Party, led by… Walid Jumblatt Distinguishing himself from his former allies among the party’s opponents, he declared clear support for the resistance against Israel, and his position became more evident after the incident of the village of Majdal ShamsJumblatt announced his support for Hezbollah, consecrating his position. Druze Anti-Israel, after its attempt to strip the villagers of their Syrian Arab Druze identity.
- In parallel, the involvement of the “Fajr Forces” – affiliated withFor the Islamic Group In the war of support – the Sunni environment that nurtured Hezbollah's option. Despite the limited capabilities of the forces, which were established in 1982 during Israeli invasionHer role carried an important symbolic significance politically, on the ground, and sectarianly.
- On July 18, 2024, Israel assassinated Muhammad Jabara, a prominent leader of the group in the Fajr Forces, raising the death toll to about 11.
Support the resistance
The writer and political researcher Wael Najm says that the majority of the Sunni street supports the resistance in Gaza, and this was evident in the positions of the two political authorities – i.e. the government – headed by… Najib Mikati…and religious. Mikati's position, despite the terms imposed by official diplomacy – according to Najm – supports the resistance and reflects the level of coordination with Hezbollah.
As for the Sunni religious authority, it supports the resistance in Gaza and does not oppose the Lebanese support front, as evidenced by the fact that the Mufti of the Republic, Abdul Latif Derian, has repeatedly assigned the Mufti of the regions to perform the prayer for the “martyrs of the war,” as he added to Al Jazeera Net.
The writer notes widespread support for the resistance in Sunni-majority areas, especially after the Islamic Group's military involvement in the support war. He acknowledges the existence of a large gap between the Sunni and Shiite components that widened after the assassination of the former prime minister. Rafik Hariri 2005, then the events of the “Hezbollah invasion of Beirut” in May 2008, then the Syrian war starting in 2011.
The researcher concluded that not all of these events turned into a Sunni-Shiite strife, and the current war has largely bridged the gap between them, without eliminating political differences.
This opinion does not apply entirely to the position on Hezbollah after about two years of the dispersion of the Sunni political arena, following the retreat… Future Movement -Leadership Saad Hariri– About political work and his withdrawal from the 2022 elections.
Sunni position
For his part, political analyst Mohammed Nimr believes that the Sunni crisis is manifested in the absence of a strong leadership that expresses it, which was represented – in his opinion – by the late Hariri and then his son Saad. He added to Al Jazeera Net that the idea of Sunni leadership is based on moderation in Lebanon, and what is happening now is an attempt by each party – led by Hezbollah and the Forces – to “hijack the Sunni public for the benefit of its political agenda.”
As for the implicit position – according to the researcher – it is divided into two:
- the first: It is linked to solidarity with Gaza as an Arab cause.
- the second: A large segment refuses to be dragged into the armed conflict “within the Hezbollah project and behind it.” Iran“.
The presidency of the government – according to the same spokesman – is restricted by the party's choices, and has no influence on the course of the war with Israel.
The writer believes that the absence of a leading Sunni figure represented in parliament exacerbated the deterioration of the situation. “If Hariri had been present, for example, he would have visited Washington and…Paris andEgypt andRiyadh andDoha andTürkiye And others, and employed his relationships to devise a solution or settlement that would prevent war on Lebanon.” As for the international community today, it “uses the facade of the Lebanese state to communicate with the party.”
As for Waddah Sadiq, an opposition member of parliament, he told Al Jazeera Net that most of the people “are against a large-scale war with Israel because Lebanon is not equipped to begin with, and there is not a single real refuge for people, unlike Israel.” The 10-month experience has also proven – in his opinion – that “unity of arenas” “did not produce positive results in Gaza, which has become uninhabitable, and Hezbollah has not eased the pressure on it.”
The Christian street is complex, and the people tend to reject Hezbollah’s involvement in the support war “because it poses an existential threat and threatens the structure of Lebanon.”
The Lebanese Forces Party is the spearhead against Hezbollah's options, followed by the Kataeb Party and other forces, while Hezbollah enjoys relative support from the Free Patriotic Movement led by Gebran Bassil as the second largest Christian party with the Forces.
Hezbollah also enjoys the automatic support of its historical ally, the leader of the Marada Movement. Suleiman FranjiehHis town, Zgharta, in northern Lebanon, will be one of the most prominent destinations for displaced people if Israel launches a large-scale war on the country.
Forces rivalry
The head of the Lebanese Forces' media and communications department, Charles Jabbour, told Al Jazeera Net that his party's position – since October 8 – has been against Hezbollah's involvement in the war, because “it cannot be controlled by areas and rules of engagement, and things are slipping into the abyss.”
What did the party's secretary general do? Hassan Nasrallah In Jabbour's view, “it is a major sin and he treats Lebanon as an Iranian province and made the decision to go to war in isolation from the state, after his war with Israel caused great destruction in 2006.”
Jabbour stresses the hostile stance towards Israel, and sees Shukr’s assassination as an Israeli violation of sovereignty, “but Hezbollah is dragging Lebanon into it.” The war also revealed that those who have covered this party since 2006, namely the Free Patriotic Movement, have wronged the Christians “because they want a state, while the party’s project contradicts its concept.”
In his opinion, “Hezbollah placed the decision to go to war in the hands of the Israeli Prime Minister.” Benjamin NetanyahuTo extract it from him, Resolution No. 1701 must be implemented, and the Radwan Force must withdraw from the border and hand it over to the Lebanese Army.
Bassil's movement's approach is at odds with the forces, and Walid Ashqar, a member of the Free Patriotic Movement's political council, says that what unites them with Hezbollah – currently – despite internal political differences is protecting Lebanon's borders, because Israel is looking for an excuse to escalate the situation with the party, and Netanyahu wants a moral victory for his people, even if it means destroying Lebanon.
He added to Al Jazeera Net that Israel escalated the situation with the assassinations of Dahiyeh and Tehran, and they are awaiting the response and standing with the party to preserve their sovereignty and borders.
Al-Ashqar talks about his movement’s opposition to Hezbollah’s initiative to enter the war, and that they are against the principle of “unity of arenas,” but they are with the resistance against the Israeli aggression, stressing that Israel is violating the rules of engagement and bears responsibility for the consequences of that.
He expects an escalation in strikes “without war”, stressing that they are not embarrassed by their “national” position against Israel in the Christian street, and are clear on both the levels of criticizing and supporting Hezbollah.
