Al-Monitor website said that the escalation in the region (the Middle East) is unlikely to affect the majority of American voters, but the United States’ position on the conflict may have an impact on Arab American voters who are equally divided in their support for Democrats and Republicans.US presidential elections.
In her article on the American website specializing in regional issues, Megan Minero said that the average American voter does not classify the war in the region as a top priority, citing reports from the Gallup Poll that concluded that only 1% of Americans consider the war there to be of importance to them.
The writer pointed out that voters who followed the vice presidential candidates' debate last Tuesday heard from the Democratic candidate Tim Walls The United States must continue to support Israel and end the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, while the Republican candidate argued J.D. Vance That the former president Donald Trump He created an effective deterrent based on fear and will do so again if elected.
Although the region has entered a new phase of conflict, driven by Iran's missile attack on Israel, the Israeli ground invasion of Lebanon, and the assassination of the Secretary-General of…Hezbollah Hassan Nasrallah, a narrow group of issues related to the crisis may attract the attention of American voters, most notably the potential rise in oil and gas prices, but in general – according to Minero – concerns about immigration and the cost of living account for the largest part of their thinking compared to the security of Israel or the suffering of the Palestinians in Gaza and Lebanon. .
The writer considered that this matter may be important in certain states, but as a national issue, it will certainly not be an urgent issue with the same aura that accompanied the Iraq war in 2004, 2006, and 2008.
Accounts are different
Mineiro recalled statements to Al-Monitor made by Brian Katulis, a specialist in American foreign policy at the Middle East Institute, when he said, “You have to severely underestimate the political impact of the foreign policy issues that we face, because people really care about things closer to home,” but she added that Calculations are different among Arab American voters.
The writer said that these voters are largely divided in their support for Democrats and Republicans, but American policies related to the Israeli war on the Gaza Strip could affect their orientations, according to a new poll from the Arab American Institute.
The division may be close between the two parties Democrat andRepublican Decisive in key swing states such as Michigan, which includes about 400,000 Arab Americans – one of the largest concentrations in the United States – and Pennsylvania, which includes about 127,000.
According to a poll conducted by the Arab American Institute, Trump and his Democratic rival Kamala Harris They are roughly tied among Arab American voters, at 42% to 41%, respectively.
Harris regained the majority of support among Arab Americans that President Joe Biden lost in the months following the Israeli war on Gaza in response to the attack of last October 7, but she is still far from the level that Biden reached in 2020 among Arab American voters, which reached 59% at the time, with the aim of removing Trump.
Given the option of voting for a third candidate, a large percentage of Arab voters could turn away from the major parties, according to a poll conducted last August by the American-Arab Anti-Discrimination Committee, the largest Arab American organization in the country.
The poll showed that Jill Stein of the Green Party might get 45% of the Arab American vote, followed by Harris with 27.5% – which is a big jump compared to Biden, who got only 7%, according to Al-Monitor.
Luring young people
The committee’s executive director, Abdul Ayoub, told Al-Monitor, “A lot of voting intentions were received by Stein from new voters, so she will not necessarily account for votes from Harris or Trump’s shares,” adding, “The Green Party appeals to young voters who are voting for the first time.”
Historically, Arab Americans prefer Democrats, but James Zogby, co-founder of the Arab American Institute, said the latest poll numbers reflect the fact that a large portion of Arab Americans vote Republican.
Zogby said that there is a segment of society that used to vote for Democrats in recent years and is now turning against the party as a reaction to how the Biden administration responded to the war on the Gaza Strip.
Harris stood between two pledges, the first of which was “firm commitment to Israel” and the second that she “will not remain silent” regarding the human tragedy of the Palestinians in Gaza. She also chose not to attend Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s speech before Congress last July, but for many Arab American voters , it remains closely linked to the Biden administration's policies regarding the war in Gaza.
Zoabi believes that “Biden's speech did not help at all in creating a distinction between Democrats and Republicans, and Harris – who I think is very different from Joe Biden – I do not think she achieved the required difference, and she still has a month to do that, but she is running out of time here.”
Clarifying the point
The Arab American Institute poll also concluded that a slight majority (46% compared to 43%) of Arab American voters prefer to see Republicans control the next Congress, which begins next January.
Zogby said that this discovery reflects a desire among Arab Americans to send a message to Democrats that they are not satisfied with how the White House and the Senate, which is controlled by Democrats, responded to Israel’s attacks on Gaza, which killed more than 41,000 Palestinians, according to the Ministry of Health in Gaza.
Republicans in the current Congress voted to block funds for the resettlement of refugees from Gaza in the United States, and to cancel funding for the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA) and the Biden administration’s special representative for Palestinian affairs. They also sought to thwart efforts to grant the Palestinians increased participation in the United Nations.
Zogby believes that voters do not believe that these policies may become law if Republicans control the White House and Congress next year. They also do not necessarily consider Trump's positions during his first term that might be repeated if he returns to the White House, such as banning immigration from Muslim-majority countries or military attacks against Iran.
The Arab American Institute found that both presidential candidates would see an increase in support if they demanded a ceasefire and unimpeded entry of humanitarian aid into Gaza, or a suspension of arms shipments to Israel.
The author concluded her article by saying that, so far, Harris has shown an unwillingness to make a clear break with Biden's policies regarding the war in Gaza, and Trump has shown no sign of confronting the war decision-makers in Israel.