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When the Arizona Cardinals selected Marvin Harrison Jr. at No. 4 overall in the 2024 NFL Draft, expectations of greatness had been laid on his shoulders before playing an NFL snap.
It made sense. His father’s Hall of Fame legacy, his standout numbers at Ohio State, a raw physical ability and his hardworking, humble attitude all contributed to the loathsome “generational” tag–already in bold next to his name.
But throughout the course of a peculiar NFL season, he has yet to truly match those expectations. It’s not that he hasn’t had excellent games, but Cardinals fans have been understandably disappointed in his level of contribution thus far.
But are the first 14 games of his career truly a sign that this once-envied prospect isn’t on track to have a successful, potentially great career? Let’s examine:
Harrison has played in 14 games. In those games, he’s been targeted 92 times, but has caught just 47 of them, with just four official drops recorded.
Thus far in 2024, he has 687 receiving yards, seven touchdowns, and is averaging 14.6 yards per catch.
He’s averaging just over 49 yards per game, and has a Receiving Success Rate of only 46.7%.
According to Pro Football Reference, Receiving Success Rate is defined as “a play that gains at least 40% of yards required on 1st down, 60% of yards required on 2nd down, and 100% on 3rd or 4th down.”
Averaging his numbers out to a 17-game season, he’s on pace for 112 targets, 57 receptions, 834 receiving yards and nine touchdowns.
That projection doesn’t take into account week six against the Green Bay Packers, where Harrison exited the game with a concussion and no receptions early in the first quarter.
With that game removed, his 17-game projection adjusts to 117 receptions, 898 yards and a decimal above nine touchdowns.
Keep those numbers in mind as we progress.
During the Draft season, there was plenty of talk about whether Harrison truly was the best receiver available. Malik Nabers, Rome Odunze and Brian Thomas Jr. were generally considered to be Harrison’s main competition.
Some argued that the others were better, some argued against that. Many seemed to think Nabers was the best weapon by far. So let’s look at Nabers.
Nabers has missed two games this season. But in 12 games, he’s put up impressive numbers. He’s hauled in 90 passes for 901 yards and four touchdowns, on pace for 1,276 yards and six scores.
When looking at the yardage, it’s easy to be disappointed in Harrison’s 687, or to assume that perhaps the counter-culture analysts were correct: maybe Nabers is the best weapon of the rookie group.
Those stats are undeniably more productive than Harrison. However, in context, Nabers’ production might not be what it seems.
Nabers has been targeted an astounding 140 times, nearly 50 more than Harrison. His yards per reception? An even 10.
Nabers has dropped nine passes, over 200% of Harrison’s total, despite being targeted just 52% more than him.
The Giants simply feed Nabers the football, and that’s not in any way a knock on the LSU product. Nabers is an excellent young receiver with exceptional YAC skills and an ability to help carry New York’s admittedly bottoming offense.
But, going off rate stats, if Harrison were to get 140 targets, his stats would look like this: 71 receptions for 1,036 yards, 135 more than Nabers. On top of that, considering he’s scoring a touchdown on just over 19% of his receptions, he would theoretically have over 13 touchdowns in 14 games.
Granted, the 13 touchdowns is not an incredibly realistic number, but mathematically, that’s how Harrison measures up to Nabers.
Let’s do another. Chicago’s Rome Odunze has played in 14 games with Caleb Williams and the Bears. He’s caught 47 of his 88 targets, for 634 yards and three touchdowns, averaging 13.3 yards per catch.
That projects out to 107 targets, 57 receptions, 758 yards and four scores on the season.
Brian Thomas Jr., doomed to the 3-11 Jaguars, is actually the only rookie receiver to surpass Harrison in rate stats. He’s caught 64 of 99 receptions for 956 yards and eight touchdowns, while picking up 14.9 yards per reception.
Thomas is on pace for 78 receptions, 1,161 yards and 10 scores, and has six drops.
His overall numbers are moreso a case for his own praise, rather than an indictment on Harrison, considering Thomas played behind Nabers at LSU. Somehow, he wasn’t awarded quite as much pre-draft attention, despite scoring 17 touchdowns in his final college season.
The comparison to Cardinals legend and future Hall of Fame receiver Larry Fitzgerald has been thrown around frequently with regards to MHJ.
That is also understandable, with Harrison being drafted exactly 20 years, after Fitzgerald was in 2004, just one draft pick further down the order.
Both Fitzgerald and Harrison portray the humble, hardworking archetype, with reserved personalities on and off the field. Similarities in their play, particularly the lack of blinding speed have also been scrutinized.
I won’t get into why comparing the two on playstyle alone isn’t quite accurate just yet, that’s for later.
Let’s look at Fitzgerald’s rookie year. It was a 6-10 Cardinals team, quarterbacked by Josh McCown, in the faraway days of the 16-game NFL season.
In that season, Fitzgerald was targeted 115 times, and caught 58 passes for 780 yards and eight touchdowns, averaging 13.45 yards per reception. He averaged 48.75 yards per game.
That’s a 50.4% catch rate, against Harrison’s 46.7%. Better, yes, but not another level’s worth of better.
To make the playing field fair, let’s project Fitzgerald’s 2004 season out to 17 games: 122 targets, 61 catches, 828 yards and an extra half touchdown.
Harrison’s 2024 season, though not by a great deal, edges out a franchise legend’s rookie year in yards, touchdowns and yards per catch, despite how uncomfortable the connection between he and quarterback Kyler Murray might look.
If you’re looking at the game log, seeing some of Harrison’s lackluster showings this season, it’s easy to be concerned. But Fitzgerald logged poor games back in 2004, too. In the legend’s second career game, he was targeted 12 times, but only made five catches for 36 yards. Sound familiar?
In nine separate games, Fitzgerald finished contest with yardage totals as low as zero, two 12, 21, 36 twice, 37 twice and 47. His single-game high in yards was 94.
Looks pretty mediocre for a future franchise hero, doesn’t it? On paper, it’s worse than Harrison, who’s been met with widespread disappointment in 2024.
But Fitzgerald then followed up his 2004 rookie season with a 1,409 yard, 10-touchdown campaign in 2005, where he caught 103 passes and averaged 88.1 yards per game.
He never truly looked back from that level of production either, outside a couple of outlier years, littered with exceptionally poor quarterback play. Either way, even the best of the best can struggle in their rookie season–as evidenced by the numbers, neither Fitzgerald nor Harrison are exceptions.
It’s easy to look at the number comparisons presented above and come away with an even more confused perspective. In context and on paper, Harrison is doing as expected for the opportunity he’s being given.
So then, in that case, why doesn’t it look right?
A barrage of factors that go into a season like this, even if it is truly, quantifiably not as poor as might be expected from an objective standpoint.
Rookie Struggles
The most accurate answer is often the simplest. Harrison is a rookie. It doesn’t matter that his father is an NFL legend, and it doesn’t matter how “pro-ready” he was coming into the draft.
The NFL is a much different, much harder environment than college football. Not every elite receiver struggles to the same degree immediately upon entering the league, but it’s certainly more common to have a transition period than not.
Harrison is frequently criticized for his drops, which he only has four of. He’s criticized for making too many body catches, which could be true, but is an obvious rookie tendency that can be coached.
At the college level, defensive backs are smaller and less physical, generally across the board. Harrison’s smoothness and ability to create separation at Ohio State allowed fewer contested catches.
It doesn’t matter what you know about the NFL coming in. It’s going to be a difficult jump. Development will come with time. It will.
Pile “generational” talks on top of Harrison. Fans expected him to enter the desert and immediately dominate. It happened with Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase, so clearly that’s the norm, right?
It’s not, and it shouldn’t be. Expecting a rookie, even one as hyped as Harrison to do what those players did right away wasn’t realistic. It’s barely even believable that those players had as impactful a rookie season as they did – that’s not fair to expect out of Harrison, at least not for now.
There are aspects of the rookie’s game that he needs to work on and improve, and it needs to happen somewhat quickly. That is a fact. But he’s still just 22 years old, and only played two full college seasons.
Scheme Usage
Another sore spot with Arizona’s fanbase is offensive coordinator Drew Petzing’s scheme and play-calling.
Petzing is ever-dedicated to a power run offense. How can you not be when James Conner is your back? Petzing, a discipled of Kyle Shanahan, loves his 12 and 13 personnel, prefers passing to tight ends, and repeatedly emphasizes his refusal to “force” the ball to anyone.
At its core, that philosophy isn’t a bad thing. In fact, it’s a great thing when Trey McBride and James Conner put up numbers like they have been. But Petzing’s scheme does lend itself to a spirit of one-dimensional play, and there is a distinct lack of a vertical passing game in this offense.
When the Cardinals need to pass the ball down the field, that hasn’t been an option. It certainly hasn’t worked well and on-schedule.
But it seems that the way Harrison is being used isn’t playing to a style that would elevate his numbers or establish him as a dominant threat.
Often, he’s running comebacks and short digs, but when he does go deep, he’s running straight fades, fighting with corners for passes that are barely 50/50 balls.
It’s worked at times. Harrison led rookie receivers in touchdowns until this past week, and has a handful of excellent red zone scores on fade-type routes.
But if you want your X receiver to produce volume, you can’t force him to run routes that stop his momentum and limit his open-field opportunities. If you want deep completions, low-percentage jump balls aren’t the way to go.
It seems that every completion to Harrison has him stopping in his tracks, coming back towards Murray, or fighting for a ball with a cornerback draped all over him.
There’s little creativity in his route tree, and he isn’t getting any sort of easy, confidence-boosting targets. For better or worse, Petzing doesn’t want to use him the way the Giants use Nabers.
Harrison has the fewest targets of the three rookie receivers around him, and the offense is simply not built to offer him as many opportunities as the others.
In fact, some of Harrison’s best plays have come off-script. His biggest play of the season – a long touchdown against the Los Angeles Rams, he veered across the field on a scramble drill and found the soft spot in the zone.
Against the Minnesota Vikings, Murray turned a broken screen play into an end zone shot to the rookie receiver that put Arizona up 19-6. If you want more examples, watch the entire Dolphins game again.
Those broken plays don’t mean everything, but they do signal that Harrison’s usage on-schedule and within scheme are holding him back, at least a little, but potentially to a large extent.
Quarterback Play
There is some ownership on Murray, as well. Arizona’s franchise quarterback has been under scrutiny of late, and justifiably so. He hasn’t performed well in recent weeks, and his excellent games have been scattered in 2024.
Still, it’s safe to say that Murray is a better quarterback than Drew Lock, Tommy DeVito, Mac Jones, Josh McCown, and (at least for the moment) Caleb Williams, the quarterbacks throwing to Harrison’s previously-mentioned competition.
With that said, Murray has missed frequently on some of those deep shots to Harrison. Many of the 50/50 fades have been inadequately placed. In some instances, Harrison is open, but Murray isn’t finding him.
It’s not the most significant factor in Harrison’s struggles by any means, but as Murray struggles, so will his number one receiver.
It’s also not a coincidence that Harrison’s two best games by far have also been Murray’s best games. Against the Rams and Dolphins, Murray recorded 573 passing yards and five passing touchdowns.
241 of those yards, and three of those touchdowns were to MHJ. When Murray makes the right plays, the opportunity has been there, and Harrison has capitalized on it.
So we’ve examined MHJ’s rookie year. As far as numbers are concerned, he’s at worst maintaining the status quo, while on pace for a very solid receiving season, especially considering how run-heavy the Cardinals’ offense remains.
But through all this, it still seems like there’s something missing from Harrison’s game. Even if not putting up monster numbers, it’s natural to want to see some dominance out of the fourth overall pick.
For his own part, Harrison needs to be a bit more physical to the ball. There’s a timidity when dealing with one-on-one coverage that needs to be (and can be) coached out, and should simply come with reps.
That, along with more of a reliance on “hands” catches rather than “body” catches is part of developing into an NFL receiver. He’ll need to put that work in, but it’s not necessarily a sign of a deeper issue.
He’s clearly a confident player, but isn’t the type of receiver that demands attention and lets his confidence show outwardly, as is often the case with X receivers.
That’s certainly not a bad thing, especially in the locker room, but maybe a touch of swagger and a bit more of an anger toward his opponents could be in order for the demure rookie.
From a scheme perspective, he needs more open-field opportunities. Make him cross the entire field, and let him catch the ball with momentum in space.
It seems like a common misconception that he was brought in to be a jump-ball specialist who was too slow to be a YAC producer. In fact, I’d posit that it’s the opposite.
Obviously, wanting to see him come down with 50/50 balls makes sense, but he has almost no opportunities to make a play with the ball in his hands.
This is my official offensive plea: roll Murray out of the pocket, get Harrison into open space, hit him in stride and watch the magic happen. He’s had success on deep crossers and rubs, so give him a chance to utilize his smoothness and momentum after the catch.
This isn’t a call for tunnel screens and shameless force-fed targets, but a bit of a schematic compromise will need to be made for the rookie (or any wideout on this team) to live up to his full potential.
It’s disappointing that the narrative has been focused on Harrison’s lack of dominance. It hasn’t looked like a clean connection, and he’s made plenty of rookie mistakes.
But it’s simply wrong to insinuate that this season has been an objective failure for the fourth overall pick.
Compared to his rookie peers, he’s above most of them in rate stats, he just hasn’t been given the same level of opportunity and attention. Compared to a franchise legend in Fitzgerald, he’s slightly ahead of schedule.
Many factors have gone into this season, but, truly, Cardinals fans should relax for now. The numbers and patterns suggest Harrison is on track, as long as his development doesn’t end here, and there’s plenty of reasons to believe it won’t.
Sure, there’s no guarantee that he’ll ever pan out to be the “generational” talent he was touted as, but even an above-average X receiver would be a huge boost to Arizona’s poor passing game. He’s still showing plenty of potential, and has an exceptional level of raw talent.
Perhaps, he merely needs more reps, more coaching and more targets.
Maybe, it simply takes a while to learn how to drive a Maserati.