Economic reactivation and labor market boost consumer credit: ABM

Throughout 2022 – without yet knowing the data for December – bank consumer credit is the one that registered the greatest dynamism, which prompted the recovery of the total portfolio.

According to the Association of Banks of Mexico (ABM) and with figures from the National Banking and Securities Commission (CNBV), as of November 2022, the total portfolio to the private sector grew at an annual rate of 4.9% real.

In the interior, the consumer portfolio increased 8.9%, being the fastest growing, followed by companies with 3.8% and housing with 3.4 percent.

“Consumer credit has presented a strong recovery, with double-digit growth (nominal was 17.4%), mainly due to factors such as economic recovery and job growth,” said Daniel Becker, president of ABM.

In a conference, on the occasion of the meeting of the Committee of Associates, held this Wednesday, the leader of the bankers highlighted that as of 2022, GDP continued to grow at an annual rate of 2.8%, in the third quarter of that year. .

While formal employment grew 3.8% (785,000 jobs) to November.

Similarly, he stressed that the regulation on labor subcontracting has led to an improvement in salary and benefits, with an increase in the minimum wage of 22% in 2022.

Daniel Becker stressed that consumer credit is the most dynamic, and all its segments have good levels of growth and stable delinquency; This is thanks to adequate risk management and prudence on the part of consumers.

He emphasized the performance of the credit card which, within the consumer segment, is the one that has grown the most.

In addition to this, he said that the Delinquency Index (Imor) of the consumer portfolio presents a downward trend compared to 2021 (2.9% in November) and that only the payroll segment presented a slight increase, but remaining at stable levels .

They estimate that it will continue to rise this year

By 2023, and despite the fact that a slowdown scenario is expected for Mexico, the ABM estimated that consumer credit will continue to grow.

Rodrigo Brand, executive president of ABM, explained that the expansion of the labor market is expected to continue, which is a fundamental indicator for the dynamism of this portfolio to continue.

Julio Carranza, vice president of the organization, highlighted that there are great strengths and good expectations for the country.

Total portfolio would grow 3.6%

In this sense, Daniel Becker estimated that, despite the expected slowdown, the forecast is that total credit to the private sector of commercial banks will grow 3.6% in 2023.

“The banks will continue to support the economic recovery of Mexico. We estimate that despite the economic slowdown, credit will continue to rise, probably at a slower rate than in 2022, depending on the dynamics of the economy, ”he emphasized.

eduardo.juarez@eleconomista.mx