The German bank Deutsche Bank, lowered its growth forecast for Germany’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for 2023 to -4%, from a previous estimate of -1% made just a month and a half ago, due to the crisis energetic.
Deutsche Bank also adjusted its euro zone GDP forecast from -0.3% to -2.2%, so the single currency bloc would be mired in a recession with high inflation rates. He added that wage increases, coupled with a weak euro, increase the risks.
Regarding the Consumer Price Index in the euro zone, it was revised slightly downwards, with an estimate of 8.2% for 2022 and 6.2% for 2023, but it remains far from the European Central Bank’s target of 2 percent.
Energy prices represent the main concern for the team of economists at Deutsche Bank, since in July the increase was 139% annually, the bank said, referring to producer prices.
“In August, the industry’s producer prices rose 45.8% annually, that was by far the largest increase since records began in 1949,” the bank said in a report.
As a positive observation, he pointed out that the prices of some energy products have decreased in recent days, so it could be that the inflation of producer prices has peaked; however, the energy picture is uncertain.
They considered that the recession that is looming for the winter and the second quarter of 2023 will be 50% less than that which occurred in the Great Recession of 2008.
Nationalization of Uniper announced
The German Ministry of Economy announced the nationalization of the largest gas importing company in the country, Uniper, with the aim of guaranteeing supply and saving the company from the crisis.
Christian Lindner, German Minister of Finance, assured that this intervention is absolutely necessary to protect consumers from an uncontrollable situation, for which the government will take over 99% of the company. “Uniper is a central pillar of German energy supply,” he said.
Germany is ready to buy Fortum’s 78% stake in Uniper and inject another 8 billion euros into the energy group.
Klaus-Dieter Maubach, president of Uniper, pointed out that the bankruptcy of the company would have caused a chain reaction that would have plunged many other suppliers into a very difficult situation.
Fortum chairman Markus Rauramo said divestment from Uniper is a correct decision. “The role of gas in Europe changed since Russia invaded Ukraine and also changed the outlook for a gas-intensive portfolio, which made Uniper’s participation in that market unfeasible,” he added.
luis.benitez@eleconomista.mx
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